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Prospectus Hit List for August 15



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 13 Hit List for August 18
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's Friday, Friday, got a late List on Friday.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

67

55

64.9

63.4

63.0

.529

.509

42.9%

36.9%

79.8%

6.5%

12.5%

Congratulations to Bud Selig for getting the successor he wanted in Rob Manfred and for finally getting the heck out of New York.
2

64

56

59.2

62.0

62.0

.515

.495

35.5%

30.4%

65.9%

5.9%

1.6%

Mike Matheny wants people to take the Cardinals seriously. Got that, internet? You are being ordered to take something seriously ha ha ha [ducks]
3

66

54

62.9

56.9

58.7

.509

.529

44.5%

18.4%

62.8%

4.0%

29.6%

On July 21, the Royals were eight games back in their division and two games under .500. Ha ha, no I haven’t checked the standings since. Why would I bother, it’s just the Royals?
4

65

54

64.1

64.9

63.7

.542

.561

52.7%

15.8%

68.4%

2.6%

-15.9%

Yes, Joe Nathan did tell Tigers fans what they could do with their booing, but the cameras didn’t capture Nathan quickly putting on a ghost outfit and handing out candy. Once again Joe Nathan’s love of Halloween has been misconstrued!
5

66

53

69.9

69.0

68.1

.574

.554

94.8%

1.8%

96.6%

1.5%

4.6%

When Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg are both on their games, there can’t be a brighter nor briefer future in the majors.
6

60

61

56.9

57.3

56.8

.477

.457

1.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1.5%

4.1%

The Marlins shouldn’t be allowed to have a guy named Dunn unless he can hit homers, strike out prodigiously, and look slovenly even when dressed like a normal ballplayer.
7

60

61

62.9

67.5

67.4

.533

.553

2.6%

3.5%

6.1%

1.4%

0.3%

Chris Archer will pass David Price for the Rays season leader in WARP sometime in three or so starts, though he’ll never catch Price in WBDP (Wins By David Price).
8

70

53

68.3

71.5

70.0

.569

.549

92.0%

7.4%

99.4%

0.6%

1.3%

If Yasiel Puig can play center field but manager Don Mattingly hasn’t let him, what else can Puig do that Mattingly stopped? How do you sleep at night, Don Mattingly? The world needs Puig to save the whales and eliminate peanut allergies!
9

63

57

63.8

64.0

63.4

.526

.506

8.0%

54.6%

62.6%

0.3%

-11.3%

Have the Giants lost their edge? Nope. Just another game in the standings.
10

57

64

54.2

54.8

54.4

.455

.475

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.5%

I’ll give you a billion-to-one odds that the day Hawk Harrelson dies the headline on MLB.com will read “He Gone.”
11

54

65

55.6

55.7

55.6

.464

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

After a career of below-average offense, Kurt Suzuki’s new contract with the ever-thrifty Twins might as well come with a must-trade clause.
12

53

68

52.2

52.8

53.3

.437

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Ben Revere has the lowest OPS of any qualified batter currently hitting over .300. And you say the Phillies don’t have talent!
13

50

72

50.7

50.6

52.7

.418

.437

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

“We are really disappointed the Texas Rangers are so bad this season,” say Rangers fans and the Houston Astros.
14

55

65

54.4

54.2

54.7

.455

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

After a rough first four months, Dustin Pedroia is hitting .360/.396/.480 in August, so don’t buy any videos titled, ‘Warming Up with Dustin Pedroia.’
15

47

74

53.8

55.2

53.0

.429

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Injuries have felled Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki yet D.J. LeMahieu remains unharmed? The world is a cruel, cruel… uh... world.
16

52

69

51.5

51.5

51.1

.426

.407

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At this point the Diamondbacks may as well strut around the field with a mic calling out opponents and then hitting them with folding chairs.
17

47

74

46.8

45.1

46.9

.384

.403

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yu Darvish is going to the DL with elbow pain. Oh no! Now the Rangers won’t win the World Series!
18

73

48

78.6

76.5

75.9

.628

.647

62.3%

37.4%

99.7%

-0.0%

-0.2%

The A’s have mixed feelings about Jed Lowrie’s difficult season and recent injury. Sure, he’s not helping them win a lot, but now they’ll be able to afford him.
19

70

49

68.6

73.3

72.9

.598

.617

37.0%

61.9%

98.9%

-0.1%

-0.3%

Who has more WARP: Mike Trout or the five most valuable Angels pitchers? (Answer printed on the Angels team page)
20

52

68

54.6

59.0

58.9

.468

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

With 2.1 good innings in his Cubs debut, Jacob Turner may have [does finger quotes] TURN'd his season arou [gun shots]
21

57

65

60.1

56.4

55.9

.470

.450

0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

-0.5%

-0.1%

From Chapter 4 of Losing Your Job for Baseball Managers: When the team’s star pitcher tries to help your lousy team suck less by coming back from injury, tell him off to the press. Well done, Terry Collins!
22

69

50

65.9

63.9

64.6

.553

.573

90.5%

3.6%

94.0%

-0.5%

8.6%

Don’t worry about the Reds comment, Orioles fans. Those people put pasta on their chili.
23

61

58

55.6

55.3

56.1

.479

.499

3.0%

4.0%

7.0%

-0.7%

-17.9%

Michael Pineda has shown the ability to pitch well following long stretches of missed time. This is good for a number of reasons.
24

57

63

58.6

54.7

54.7

.469

.449

0.0%

0.9%

1.0%

-0.8%

0.7%

As the Padres are finding out, five-game win streaks are like ordering Chinese food online. It sounds like a good idea at first but ultimately it would’ve been better if you’d just stayed in bed.
25

60

60

61.0

61.0

60.4

.505

.525

2.8%

3.4%

6.2%

-1.1%

-2.1%

Corey Kluber has walked more than two batters in four of his 25 starts. This is a man dedicated to the craft of watching late night TV.
26

63

59

62.5

63.4

63.0

.516

.536

3.9%

6.5%

10.4%

-1.2%

-16.5%

It looks like the Blue Jays might have missed their window, though the door is usually a safer bet anyway.
27

60

61

63.4

60.8

61.2

.507

.487

2.6%

10.7%

13.3%

-2.6%

-14.5%

During his four years in Baltimore, Alfredo Simon has a 5.18 ERA. In his three in Cincinnati he has 2.93 ERA. Further proof that Cincinnati is better than Baltimore.
28

65

55

70.9

69.7

69.4

.573

.592

0.7%

45.5%

46.2%

-4.4%

14.9%

Robinson Cano’s OPS+ from 2012 through the present: 148, 148, 146. A clearer downward trend I can’t imagine.
29

61

60

60.0

58.5

58.3

.491

.471

3.9%

15.0%

19.0%

-5.2%

-1.7%

According to rumors, the Braves were willing to trade B.J. Upton at the deadline. This can’t be true unless the Braves also breathe oxygen and require sustenance for survival.
30

64

57

61.5

63.9

64.7

.525

.505

19.0%

36.6%

55.6%

-7.0%

3.0%

Hey Francisco Liriano, remember all those wins you got last season? My advice would be keep remembering that.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
Lindemann

Is it in the BP Stylebook that every Friday Hit List must include a Rebecca Black reference?

Aug 18, 2014 07:51 AM
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