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Prospectus Hit List for August 11



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 8 Hit List for August 13
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Some sites only include 28 or 29 teams in their Hit Lists. We include all 30!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLF AHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

72

45

76.6

74.1

73.5

.633

.651

73.2%

26.6%

99.8%

-0.1%

-0.0%

The A’s strive to break all the rules. Like, they actually traded FOR Cubs players at the deadline.
2

68

49

67.0

72.1

71.7

.596

.615

26.5%

71.9%

98.4%

-0.6%

-1.4%

Mike Trout homers are ubiquitous. They are the sidewalk gum of homers.
3

62

55

67.6

66.5

66.2

.560

.580

0.3%

29.9%

30.2%

3.2%

10.8%

Austin Jackson has been a revelation in Seattle in the sense that he is major-league-quality outfielder who can hit around league average.
4

67

50

63.9

61.9

62.8

.546

.566

77.7%

10.7%

88.4%

-2.8%

9.7%

After five games Caleb Joseph’s homer streak has ended, as has the need to know anything about Caleb Joseph.
5

63

52

62.2

63.0

61.9

.544

.563

66.2%

10.6%

76.7%

-4.7%

-15.1%

Rajai Davis: Leadoff hitter (goes 0-for-8). Rajai Davis: fashion trend-setter (wears salmon shorts and a stained “I’m with stupid ->” t-shirt)
6

63

56

62.6

63.2

62.9

.529

.549

13.0%

15.8%

28.8%

5.2%

-12.7%

DH Nolan Reimold went 0-for-7 with two walks and five strikeouts. Ah, the pleasures of a 19-inning game.
7

63

53

67.2

66.4

65.5

.565

.545

86.8%

4.1%

90.9%

-2.1%

0.3%

On June 28, Denard Span’s OBP was .308. It is now .360. That’s a Spantastic turnaround!
8

67

52

65.5

68.6

67.0

.563

.543

88.6%

9.9%

98.5%

1.5%

2.2%

Wait, now Clayton Kershaw can hit AND field? Only myopic MVP voters can stop him now!
9

57

60

58.8

64.0

64.5

.522

.542

1.9%

3.1%

5.0%

-1.4%

-4.2%

With 33 walks in 44 innings, Grant Balfour is finally living up to his name.
10

63

53

60.9

55.3

56.6

.508

.528

29.6%

18.2%

47.8%

4.5%

27.0%

As Ned Yost said, if the Royals keep hitting and pitching, they’ll probably win some baseball games.
11

59

59

60.0

59.7

59.2

.504

.524

4.2%

4.5%

8.6%

1.6%

-7.3%

Did this before but now it’s August so we’re doing it again. Carlos Santana’s OPS by month is silly: .610, .668, 1.015, 1.022, .541.
12

65

53

62.7

61.4

61.1

.530

.510

41.3%

35.3%

76.6%

-5.1%

12.9%

“The Brewers had a lead on Clayton Kershaw!” “Well what happened? Did they win?” “No, of course not, but they had a lead on Clayton Kershaw!”
13

61

56

55.7

55.3

56.0

.487

.507

7.4%

8.6%

16.0%

-4.8%

-5.3%

They say numbers tell stories and yet Jacoby Ellsbury’s five homers at home say nobody has told him the story of the 140 foot fence in right field.
14

62

55

59.5

61.9

62.4

.525

.505

18.6%

33.0%

51.5%

-4.8%

0.3%

Andrew McCutchen is making a miraculous recovery and may be back soon. Sadly his miracle now used up, the Pirates will miss the playoffs.
15

62

56

62.2

62.7

62.1

.524

.504

11.3%

49.7%

61.1%

-6.6%

-14.4%

By pitcher WARP Tim Lincecum has been a less valuable pitcher this season than Mike Carp. (More valuable than Lyle Overbay though.)
16

62

54

57.2

60.0

60.1

.516

.495

34.3%

28.3%

62.7%

8.3%

-0.6%

Check out Pat Neshek’s new book, How I Conquered Relief Pitching, while you can. It’s out now but will be unceremoniously pulled from the shelves after he gives up two homers to some Double-A catcher next March.
17

60

58

62.6

59.6

59.9

.513

.493

5.8%

19.1%

24.9%

5.0%

2.3%

Not even the Reds thought Devin Mesoraco was this good. How do I know? They picked Brian McCann in their fantasy league.
18

52

64

54.3

54.3

54.3

.463

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

Phil Hughes held Oakland to one run over seven innings. Maybe he’s finally turned the corner!
19

60

57

58.9

57.6

56.8

.498

.478

11.2%

17.3%

28.6%

6.0%

-2.0%

“How dare someone smudge our logo! We won’t stand for anyone making us look like fools,” said players wearing racist uniforms.
20

56

63

53.8

54.0

53.6

.457

.477

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

-1.2%

The White Sox are seventh in baseball in homers and Jose Abreu has 27 percent of them.
21

52

65

52.1

52.5

53.2

.448

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Jackie Bradley is 0-for-his-last-35 and is now hitting .211/.281/.289. Said Dan Butler when told he would be batting ninth, behind Bradley, in his first major-league game, “Really?”
22

56

62

59.0

55.7

55.1

.478

.459

0.6%

0.8%

1.5%

-1.0%

-1.2%

Lucas Duda has 21 homers, though 180 of them have come off Kyle Kendrick.
23

57

60

54.6

54.8

54.4

.472

.452

1.3%

1.8%

3.1%

-1.6%

-0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton would’ve had two homers on the day if some jerk hadn’t stolen one from him. A report was filed, but the police aren’t optimistic the home run will be returned.
24

50

66

52.8

56.9

56.7

.466

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Javier Baez did not homer last night, which is good because now I don’t have to write the Hit List comment about him again. Phew!
25

54

62

55.9

51.7

51.7

.460

.440

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

0.3%

0.2%

“Hey, did you hear the Padres hired a new GM?” “Yeah, and they won 8-2 yesterday!” “Pretty cool.” “So, you wanna go to a game?” “Ha ha ha! Beach is free, dude.”
26

49

69

49.0

48.9

51.0

.419

.439

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Altuve’s two hits last night put him five points ahead of Robinson Cano for the AL batting title and gain him an even bigger lead in offensive value per pound of body weight.
27

53

65

51.5

51.4

51.8

.440

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

An amazing comeback from five runs down by the Phillies who are still in last place and didn’t make any trades at the deadline!
28

46

71

52.0

53.5

51.6

.431

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies refused to trade Brett Anderson at the deadline and now he’s hurt again. I’m not sure which aspect of this was more predictable.
29

46

71

46.6

44.4

46.0

.391

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rangers are last in team defensive efficiency. If only Prince Fielder hadn’t gotten injured!
30

51

67

50.2

51.0

50.5

.429

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Diamondbacks gave themselves a “Grit Win” last night as they were outscored but weren’t hit by any pitches.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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