Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for May 2



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 29
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Help, I'm alive, my heart's still beating like a Hit List.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

17

6

18.9

19.7

19.2

.696

.692

85.6%

9.9%

95.5%

-0.1%

2.1%

Should Jake Arrieta have more home runs than Jason Heyward? Should Jake Arrieta and Tommy La Stella have more home runs than Jason Heyward? What about Jake Arrieta, Tommy La Stella and this glazed ham?
2

17

7

16.7

16.8

16.1

.621

.616

39.6%

45.0%

84.7%

3.6%

-0.6%

After yesterday's performance, I'm wondering if Bryce Harper will begin selling "MAKE BASEBALL FUN AGAIN" golden sombreros.
3

15

8

15.5

15.3

14.3

.617

.612

58.0%

31.8%

89.8%

0.9%

8.6%

The Mets lost for the first time in over a week, which is only a surprise when it's, like, January.
4

18

8

16.1

16.9

16.6

.588

.593

50.7%

25.1%

75.9%

3.0%

11.3%

The White Sox are leading the division after just having a bunch of good starting pitching, a gambit they, for some reason, didn't try until now.
5

15

10

14.6

14.6

14.0

.562

.567

45.8%

19.8%

65.6%

3.2%

16.5%

David Price throwing seven innings of six-run ball against the Yankees on national television is like throwing 19 innings of three runs against anyone else,
6

13

13

14.0

16.1

15.1

.570

.565

64.4%

10.6%

75.0%

1.1%

-14.3%

Clayton Kershaw Throws Shutout And Also Gets Only RBI In Game, Reports 8-Year-Old Clayton Kershaw in Biographical Homework Essay In Which He Got An F For Being Too Unrealistic
7

13

11

14.5

14.7

13.9

.556

.561

49.1%

9.3%

58.4%

-2.7%

8.2%

There has to be intelligent life out there. Tons of it. And one of those civilizations, I am sure, has the equivalent of the Mariners, also hitting .227 on the season.
8

12

13

15.7

16.3

15.9

.553

.548

5.1%

19.6%

24.7%

-3.4%

-11.3%

Give it another week. Pretty soon Aledmys Diaz will not be hitting .400 on the season and we can all go back to pretending we know which hitters are superior.
9

10

12

11.6

11.6

12.3

.541

.546

33.2%

30.9%

64.1%

-2.9%

-14.3%

So far no insects have gotten to Joba Chamberlain, as Terry Francona is only using him strictly against rodents.
10

15

10

14.2

14.5

13.5

.541

.536

8.8%

33.3%

42.1%

-4.0%

9.6%

Yesterday Ryan Vogelsong was the losing Pirates pitcher of record for the first time since 2005. He attributes the streak to good health, good fortune and being on the Giants and in other parts of the world for large periods of time.
11

11

13

11.0

13.4

13.7

.529

.534

23.7%

21.2%

44.9%

-4.8%

-4.9%

The Rays have a beautiful, promising stadium in Triple-A and hopefully soon it gets the call-up.
12

14

10

13.7

13.9

14.0

.528

.533

9.2%

11.4%

20.7%

-1.5%

1.7%

Wandy Rodriguez walks into a bar. The bartender looks at him. "Don't you look familiar?" Wandy Rodriguez looks back and says, "well, the Orioles just signed me to a minor-league contract." The bartender says, "sorry, I've probably never seen you before."
13

14

10

13.8

13.1

12.7

.527

.532

10.9%

20.7%

31.6%

2.2%

15.0%

Mike Pelfrey got his first run of support this season, and it's a pity that he had to win it in one of those arcade crane games.
14

13

13

13.8

13.5

13.7

.523

.518

23.9%

16.7%

40.6%

3.5%

8.2%

It's only a matter of time before the Giants invent a new infield position, call up a total stranger, and he slashes .300/.350/.450 the rest of the season.
15

12

14

13.2

12.9

13.5

.511

.516

15.5%

18.1%

33.6%

2.7%

-7.2%

I don't know how, and I don't know when, but this Blue Jays team feels like the one that is going to return the Stanley Cup to Canada. Possibly via theft.
16

14

11

13.9

11.4

11.4

.492

.497

15.9%

7.7%

23.6%

-3.3%

4.4%

You might be wondering how the Rangers have the third best win-percentage of all teams since 2010, and the answer is that it's still just 2011 and you don't even know what an emoji is.
17

13

11

11.9

12.0

11.7

.486

.491

4.4%

9.3%

13.6%

2.3%

-8.2%

The Ian Kennedy deal is going to work out just fine, and overpaying for pitching is going to be the new black. Or the new blue. No, that can't be right -- cerulean is the new blue.
18

12

12

11.5

12.5

12.9

.486

.481

5.3%

5.0%

10.3%

1.5%

1.5%

The Rockies are tied for first with a negative run differential, but negativity in some circles, such as electricity, isn't necessarily a bad thing. Shocking, I know.
19

12

12

10.8

12.5

12.6

.484

.479

1.5%

11.3%

12.8%

-2.4%

6.3%

Dee Gordon's home run total doubled last year, and has had Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire as hitting coaches. All the signs were there.
20

13

13

11.9

11.6

11.6

.469

.474

12.1%

5.7%

17.8%

-0.1%

-1.7%

Their ERA leader is Rich Hill (2.53). Their closer and setup man, Ryan Madson and John Axford, have sub-1.00 WHIPs. Why do the Aís get all the good pitching free agents?
21

12

15

11.5

12.1

13.7

.468

.463

5.6%

4.6%

10.2%

-1.5%

-5.3%

Certain Chaos gets one weekend off a month, in case you were wondering why the Diamondbacks simply suffered through three tough losses instead of, I don't know, inserting Paul Goldschmidt in at catcher.
22

12

13

11.3

9.8

10.4

.453

.458

7.2%

3.8%

11.1%

1.4%

2.7%

Time to wonder whether "Avoidin' The Sweep" is a more fitting theme for the 2016 Angels or a sentient dust bunny.
23

8

17

9.1

9.6

9.2

.451

.456

15.6%

8.0%

23.6%

3.4%

-11.8%

It takes a good harvest of Astros jokes well over two years to grow and develop into punch lines. And the Astros are struggling again, yet here we are with nothing but joke saplings. "Jason Castro is." That's not a full joke!
24

8

15

8.2

8.7

8.9

.443

.448

5.8%

6.6%

12.4%

-2.4%

-9.6%

They may have been swept in Boston, but at least they weren't booed as badly because this time they brought enough Funyuns for the entire stadium.
25

15

10

10.6

11.1

11.1

.452

.447

0.9%

6.3%

7.2%

1.1%

5.0%

If the Phillies really are good, then Jeremy Hellickson wouldn't mind terribly if Ió
[pulls off his mask]
[it's Cliff Lee, 10 years younger]
[audience gasps]
26

7

18

9.1

9.8

9.7

.422

.427

0.8%

2.3%

3.1%

-0.4%

-2.0%

Fernando Abad keeps getting called to warm up in the bullpen, mostly because his name is alphabetically first in the bullpen phone book.
27

9

16

9.5

8.4

8.4

.409

.404

0.8%

1.6%

2.4%

-1.3%

-1.8%

It's just like my mother always used to say: "If you don't have anything nice to say about the Padres, then the season already started."
28

9

15

8.4

6.0

6.0

.387

.382

0.2%

2.4%

2.7%

0.7%

-3.4%

A ludicrous amount of unpredictable stuff happened in baseball last month, but fortunately for the Brewers, none of it happened to them.
29

10

15

7.5

6.2

7.7

.385

.381

0.2%

1.8%

2.1%

0.2%

-4.4%

Tim Adleman became the eighth starter to debut for the Reds in the last two years. Even NBC red-lights some projects, Cincinnati.
30

6

18

7.2

6.6

8.1

.355

.350

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

There is no column in the Hit List for "extra inning victories," so if you were to sort by that metric, then the Braves would be tied for fifth in the power rankings.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


0 comments have been left for this article.
You must be a Premium subscriber or have a Fantasy subscription to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Prospectus Feature: I ... (05/02)
<< Previous Column
The Prospectus Hit Lis... (04/29)
Next Article >>
Players Prefer Present... (05/02)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
BP South Side
An Agent's Take: Arizona Surprise
Prospectus Feature: I Come to Praise Quality...
The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 2
Players Prefer Presentation: Upon Further Re...
What You Need to Know: Zimmermann Dealin'
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 2, 2016

MORE FROM MAY 2, 2016 08:05 AM
What You Need to Know: Zimmermann Dealin'
Players Prefer Presentation: Upon Further Re...
Prospectus Feature: I Come to Praise Quality...
An Agent's Take: Arizona Surprise
BP South Side
Fantasy Article The Buyer's Guide: Patrick Corbin
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of April 29-May 1

MORE BY MATT SUSSMAN
2016-05-02 - The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 2
2016-04-25 - The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 25
2016-04-18 - The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 18
2016-04-11 - The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 11
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2016-05-02 - The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 2
2016-04-29 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 29
2016-04-25 - The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 25
2016-04-22 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 22
More...