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Prospectus Hit List for April 29



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Worth reading all the way down to the Braves' one, in my opinion.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

16

5

17.4

18.3

18.1

.704

.699

83.9%

11.5%

95.5%

1.5%

1.4%

Can a team win 120 games and still underachieve? Check back in October!
2

13

7

13.3

13.6

12.4

.611

.606

58.6%

26.9%

85.5%

-0.1%

11.2%

They can hit! They can pitch! They can’t hit! They can’t field! They can hit! The Mets are like watching a soap opera except none of them are doctors and if they’re sleeping with anyone nobody is showing it on TV.
3

14

7

14.0

14.6

13.6

.607

.602

38.4%

37.9%

76.4%

-0.8%

-4.4%

Getting swept by the Phillies is like finding a fingernail in a red velvet cupcake. You can look disgusted all you want, but you know in the end you’re going to keep eating it.
4

16

7

14.3

15.3

14.8

.592

.597

43.3%

29.2%

72.5%

-2.7%

19.8%

WhiteSox.com thinks Alex Avila deserves your vote for the All Star Game. Avila is hitting .214/.333/.250. Sure, baseball needs a John Scott too (search “John Scott All Star Game” to get this joke)
5

12

11

13.2

14.7

14.1

.583

.578

67.2%

12.2%

79.4%

-3.4%

-8.7%

The Dodgers next broadcaster could stay on the air 40 years and follow the team from Los Angeles to Montreal and nobody would care.
6

12

10

15.1

15.1

14.7

.578

.573

7.4%

29.6%

37.1%

-3.4%

2.5%

Hey Cardinals fans: Brandon Moss is batting fourth, Jeremy Hazelbaker has an OPS over 1.000, and the Red Sox are paying $90 million to Pablo Sandoval. Yeah, thought you’d like that.
7

10

9

10.4

10.2

10.9

.554

.559

44.5%

28.1%

72.6%

-1.2%

2.5%

Francisco Lindor is one of those guys we’re going to look at in 20 years and wonder how he ever became a pitcher for the Mets.
8

11

10

12.4

12.5

11.8

.548

.553

46.6%

9.0%

55.6%

1.4%

9.2%

The Mariners have the oldest roster in baseball, or they probably do but it's hard to tell because their reading glasses are broken
9

10

11

10.5

12.0

12.4

.543

.548

31.7%

21.0%

52.6%

1.2%

0.1%

Corey Dickerson is hitting .227/.292/.530 which is so cute, it’s like he still thinks he’s in Colorado.
10

13

8

12.7

12.8

12.6

.541

.546

9.3%

12.4%

21.7%

3.6%

0.7%

Just when I forget about Manny Machado, he homers through my front window again. MLB’s official balls are bricks with profanities written on them, right?
11

12

10

12.1

11.7

11.5

.539

.544

34.9%

19.7%

54.6%

-4.0%

9.4%

The fact that Rick Porcello is 4-0, and getting strikeouts and groundballs is total BS according to sources close to Ben Cherington.
12

12

11

13.1

12.3

12.3

.534

.529

21.6%

19.5%

41.1%

-0.1%

9.6%

Sure, the Giants are tied for first place but they literally employ Panik, so…
13

13

9

12.1

12.2

11.5

.531

.526

7.7%

30.2%

38.0%

0.9%

6.9%

So no hockey. Pirates. Baseball team. Okay. Got it. So, how good do you think the Pirates would be at hockey?
14

10

13

10.8

11.2

11.7

.502

.507

15.0%

15.8%

30.8%

0.4%

-10.1%

The Blue Jays won’t negotiate with Edwin Encarnacion until the All Star break and even then it will only be to negotiate how comically small an offer they’ll offend him with.
15

11

10

11.1

10.3

10.2

.501

.506

6.7%

15.4%

22.1%

2.6%

-5.1%

If the Tigers decide Brad Ausmus shouldn't be the manager, they could always promote him to mascot. Considering the Tigers' pitching, mascot might be a more desirable job.
16

12

9

10.9

11.0

10.7

.499

.504

4.3%

9.9%

14.2%

-0.1%

-6.6%

The Royals web site wants to know if losing three in a row means it’s time to panic. How far we’ve come in just two short years!
17

12

10

12.0

9.7

10.0

.486

.491

14.9%

7.3%

22.2%

0.6%

-5.3%

Have you seen A-Rod? He’s terrible now! Lucky the Rangers traded him. Like we always say, better to trade a guy too early than too late.
18

12

12

11.4

11.9

13.3

.493

.488

8.3%

8.2%

16.5%

3.8%

-2.5%

Rubby De La Rosa is looking like a good pitcher. Maybe he is one, or maybe it’s the Pedro Martinez Halloween costume he’s been wearing around the clubhouse.
19

8

12

7.8

8.7

8.6

.467

.472

9.1%

9.9%

19.0%

0.7%

-3.2%

Is the Yankees' defense really good or a collection of decade-old Roombas? Find out next on HOT TAKE!
20

10

11

9.7

10.1

10.7

.476

.471

2.3%

9.4%

11.7%

1.0%

3.0%

How long until the Marlins adopt the personality of their manager and become boring but with one giant mustache?
21

11

12

10.0

9.6

9.8

.457

.462

10.5%

4.5%

15.0%

-2.9%

-3.1%

The starters with the highest K/9 are, in order, David Price, Chris Archer, Noah Syndergaard, and Rich Hill. Special thanks to baseball for sneaking that last one in.
22

11

11

10.3

8.4

9.0

.455

.460

8.5%

4.4%

12.9%

-0.2%

3.0%

Albert Pujols is hitting .169, which has a one in front of it so it is officially not nice.
23

7

15

8.1

8.6

8.3

.454

.459

19.5%

9.3%

28.8%

0.9%

-7.6%

The Astros have two hitters in the top 10 in homers: Jose Altuve and Colby Rasmus and wake up Astros fans you’re late for school.
24

9

12

8.7

9.9

10.2

.456

.451

2.2%

3.2%

5.4%

-0.8%

-6.9%

Honestly, teach Trevor Story to not allow homers and I’ll be impressed.
25

7

15

8.7

9.6

9.4

.443

.448

1.3%

4.1%

5.4%

-0.3%

-3.7%

If you drop the threshold to 10 innings, Trevor May has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher in baseball and what is that giant hot thing ON NO LOOK OUT IT’S THE SUN!
26

12

10

8.7

9.5

9.4

.437

.432

0.6%

3.7%

4.3%

1.5%

2.2%

To all those who said Aaron Nola is a back-end starter I offer 1) his 29.1 percent strikeout rate, and 2) these fingers waiving from my noses.
27

7

15

7.5

6.9

6.7

.395

.390

0.7%

1.2%

1.9%

-0.4%

-4.2%

The Padres were named best local baseball team by San Diego Magazine! Congratulations!
28

9

13

6.7

5.6

6.9

.388

.383

0.3%

3.1%

3.4%

0.8%

-5.4%

Now that Joey Votto has properly eulogized the band 311 with his on-base percentage…
29

8

13

6.4

5.0

5.1

.382

.377

0.6%

3.1%

3.7%

-0.4%

-4.2%

The Brewers scored one off Jake Arrieta which, okay, it’s not a win, but lose feels too harsh. Can we call it a wose?
30

5

17

6.7

5.9

6.9

.348

.344

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.6%

It’s not often you can say this of a pro sports team, but I’m not sure baseball is the Braves' best sport.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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