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Prospectus Hit List for May 7



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 5 Hit List for May 9
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Better late (and funny) than never (and cursed by gypsies).

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

21

14

21.9

21.8

20.7

.544

.524

7.2%

23.5%

30.6%

4.4%

6.8%

The last time Nolan Arenado didn't have a hit was--uh oh, it looks like a mountain lion devoured the Rockies record book again.
2

19

14

21.2

21.3

20.3

.566

.585

33.9%

22.7%

56.7%

-6.8%

-6.8%

For those who had Alberto Callaspo as the team's primary DH, come and collect your winnings, Mrs. Callaspo.
3

18

15

19.5

20.5

20.9

.517

.497

4.6%

6.6%

11.2%

2.2%

7.7%

Casey McGehee serves as decent protection for Giancarlo Stanton. As in part a baseball lineup and not as his home security system salesman.
4

16

16

19.0

19.6

19.0

.555

.575

33.0%

21.4%

54.4%

-1.8%

-2.5%

Mike Trout has more strikeouts than Ryan Howard.
5

18

14

17.2

19.5

19.6

.543

.523

27.9%

17.6%

45.5%

5.6%

-17.3%

Not a misprint: Gerald Laird started batted fifth. Although Firstnamegoeshere Upton batting sixth is probably a misprint.
6

22

12

18.6

18.8

18.1

.531

.511

43.3%

15.2%

58.5%

-3.3%

-11.2%

The Brewers are now a dismal 0-1 when scoring five runs in the first inning.
7

15

17

18.0

18.6

18.3

.524

.504

16.1%

8.4%

24.5%

-1.7%

1.0%

Here is a list of healthy Reds outfielders: [tumbleweed rolls by] [tumbleweed goes on disabled list]
8

18

15

18.0

18.4

18.8

.554

.534

55.7%

16.6%

72.3%

-3.3%

4.0%

It's so hard to remember which Hairston, Soriano and LaRoche they have, which is why they just went and snagged both Zimmerman(n)s.
9

17

17

18.4

18.3

18.1

.532

.512

35.9%

14.2%

50.1%

-3.0%

1.8%

What's wrong with Peter Bourjos? Maybe it's early, maybe it's the change of scenery, or maybe it's pebbles in his cleats. We may never know.
10

19

9

17.7

18.3

17.7

.599

.618

84.1%

6.7%

90.8%

0.4%

16.0%

In 1994 Biggie sang "Time to get paid, blow up like the Tigers bullpen," twenty years before the Tigers bullpen had a 5.24 ERA. How did he know!
11

21

12

19.3

18.2

18.0

.560

.540

33.7%

42.8%

76.5%

-1.9%

11.7%

Tim Hudson pitched the elusive 8 2/3-inning complete game loss, the first of its kind since Roy Halladay in 2008.
12

19

15

18.1

18.2

18.0

.569

.549

58.0%

29.7%

87.7%

1.6%

3.2%

Clayton Kershaw now has a win each in Australia and North America, not unlike a replacement-level Risk player.
13

16

17

16.0

17.1

16.9

.523

.543

28.4%

19.7%

48.1%

4.3%

0.6%

David Ortiz sits down to dinner with his family. They all shift to one side of the table. (That's where the cheesy potatoes are.)
14

15

18

15.5

17.0

16.9

.517

.537

21.8%

19.5%

41.3%

-7.2%

3.7%

They lost at home with the bases loaded, and to make things worse they couldn't include those three in the attendance.
15

16

17

16.9

16.8

15.8

.500

.520

10.6%

12.9%

23.6%

1.6%

4.6%

Ever blow a five-run lead, only to still win the game in extras? Ever get attacked by a beaver, only to cook it for dinner? Same sensation.
16

17

17

17.2

16.6

16.9

.479

.499

4.8%

10.0%

14.8%

1.4%

-1.3%

If Hector Noesi can throw five innings and allow one run, what's your excuse, officer?
17

15

16

15.6

15.1

15.2

.469

.489

2.3%

5.6%

7.9%

-0.4%

-3.2%

"Hello, I'd like to donate to Wikipedia, but specifically for the upkeep of Sam Fuld's entry."
18

14

19

14.6

15.0

15.2

.467

.487

4.0%

7.1%

11.1%

0.7%

-2.5%

George Kottaras was DFAed by the Indians, just like in the movie "Major League." (Both teams had expendable third catchers, presumably.)
19

17

15

14.1

14.7

14.5

.500

.520

29.1%

19.1%

48.3%

1.9%

-7.6%

You can't drop Derek Jeter down in the lineup--he's a revered legend! (Ichiro has batted ninth four times this year.)
20

16

15

16.0

14.5

14.6

.498

.518

18.2%

18.0%

36.2%

6.6%

12.2%

Someone named Stefen Romero hit his first career home run for the M's. He is most definitely not Kendrys Morales in disguise.
21

12

24

11.8

14.1

14.6

.423

.403

0.2%

1.5%

1.6%

0.5%

0.8%

Since they're 3-15 at home and .500 on the road, maybe Chase Field should display a large banner that says MONTANA.
22

13

20

14.9

13.9

14.6

.460

.441

3.9%

3.5%

7.5%

1.6%

-1.6%

The first team in history to win a game on a walkoff video review, which explains why the camera was pied during the post-game interview.
23

17

16

13.8

13.9

14.4

.475

.495

14.8%

16.8%

31.6%

-4.9%

-7.5%

Okay, everything EXCEPT J.P. Arencibia's on-base percentage is bigger in Texas.
24

15

17

14.7

13.8

13.5

.465

.485

4.7%

10.2%

14.9%

1.2%

-10.7%

It's not fair that Yordano Ventura can strike everybody out AND be good at the plate. Is he bad at pogs? He's probably bad at pogs.
25

11

20

14.1

13.8

13.6

.439

.420

0.8%

0.6%

1.3%

-0.2%

-0.0%

Once that ivy grows in, Ryan Kalish is going to have the coolest tree fort in town.
26

15

16

13.9

13.1

13.8

.466

.446

7.7%

8.1%

15.8%

-0.8%

-1.3%

This Thursday on prime-time TV, it's the critically-acclaimed sitcom about "Freddy Galvis hit into a fielder's choice double play, pitcher Drew Hutchison to third baseman Juan Francisco to shortstop Jose Reyes to first baseman Edwin Encarnacion to second baseman Steve Tolleson. Marlon Byrd out at 3rd. Freddy Galvis out at 2nd."
27

16

16

15.3

12.8

13.7

.456

.436

4.1%

5.8%

9.8%

-0.8%

-5.0%

Thought experiment: intentionally walk Bartolo Colon if nobody is on base. Then just see what happens.
28

16

14

14.6

12.3

12.3

.471

.491

10.1%

10.3%

20.4%

3.1%

5.3%

You shoot one guy named Thomas in the foot one time by accident and you're labeled as a Tommy Hunter for life.
29

15

19

13.1

11.5

12.6

.435

.416

0.9%

6.1%

7.1%

-1.0%

-0.5%

The Padres really need trade for a bat or two. Or nine. Or 50. Or they could just buy some online, which is probably cheaper.
30

10

23

9.9

10.6

11.1

.367

.386

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

-0.2%

-0.3%

Dexter Fowler: Astros outfielder, or the guy who helped foil the plans of a TV serial killer?

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
magua11

how can the brewers be rated so low???

May 07, 2014 13:37 PM
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-1

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Llarry

Preseason projections are included in the ratings, and get gradually removed as the season goes on and they are replaced with actual performance. That's the way it's always been done here.

If they keep playing the way they have, you'll see them work their way up the chart as real numbers replace the projections.

May 07, 2014 15:30 PM
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0

down_image
 
gbeat17

That's part of it, but it's also because they never win when they score five runs in the first inning.

May 07, 2014 17:24 PM
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+3

down_image
 
BayCityM

Rays

May 08, 2014 07:22 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
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