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Prospectus Hit List for May 5



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 2 Hit List for May 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Have you ever heard of baseball? Then this is the Hit List for you!

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

19

12

20.9

20.9

20.2

.582

.602

39.9%

24.6%

64.5%

4.0%

1.6%

The Aís are one of two American League teams with both a winning record and a positive run differential.
2

19

14

19.4

19.4

18.4

.528

.508

5.3%

18.4%

23.7%

-4.7%

3.7%

Two bits of information. 1) The Rockies have scored 118 runs at home and 68 on the road. 2) Theyíve played 16 games at home and 17 on the road.
3

16

15

18.0

18.9

19.4

.509

.489

3.0%

4.9%

7.9%

1.9%

5.1%

If the Marlins trade Giancarlo Stanton theyíre going to need to find some bombs elsewhere, so maybe trade for one of those dogs from the airport.
4

15

15

17.8

18.3

17.9

.556

.575

31.4%

24.5%

55.9%

-7.7%

4.4%

Mike Trout is two strikeouts short of the league lead, which proves strikeouts donít matter if you are Mike Trout.
5

15

16

17.6

18.3

18.1

.529

.509

16.4%

9.6%

26.0%

2.3%

2.8%

Billy Hamilton has been caught stealing five times in 16 tries, presumably because he stops for dinner along the way and loses track of time.
6

16

16

17.4

17.9

17.7

.538

.518

32.5%

16.9%

49.4%

5.2%

-6.4%

Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal combined throw 200 mph meaning why not pitch them both simultaneously and win all the time? Youíre welcome.
7

21

11

17.3

17.9

17.5

.536

.516

46.1%

15.6%

61.7%

-2.9%

-0.4%

Kyle Lohse went from a season high of nine strikeouts in his previous start to a season low of two strikeouts last night. Of course he didnít win either game because baseball.
8

17

13

16.2

17.9

18.0

.539

.519

27.2%

16.6%

43.8%

-6.6%

-26.3%

Andrelton Simmons' triple-to-strikeout ratio is 3:5 which is great because it means I donít have to make a Braves attendance joke.
9

18

14

17.0

17.4

16.9

.570

.551

57.1%

30.8%

87.9%

-1.3%

3.7%

What is more surprising: that Dee Gordon leads baseball with 19 stolen bases or that Dee Gordon has been on base more than 19 times?
10

17

14

17.1

17.3

17.7

.554

.534

54.1%

16.5%

70.7%

-1.7%

6.9%

The Nationals have turned 52 single plays twice, or 26 double plays once.
11

20

11

18.3

17.1

16.8

.562

.542

36.4%

40.9%

77.3%

4.1%

14.5%

Supposedly last nightís game was just the second this season in which Michael Morse struck out three times which means either it was just the second in which Michael Morse struck out three times or thereís a massive Michael Morse-led conspiracy to alter strikeout numbers. Deny it and youíre obviously a co-conspirator!
12

15

17

15.3

16.8

16.7

.522

.542

26.5%

20.6%

47.1%

3.9%

5.5%

Will Myers' inside-the-park home run reminded me of Yasiel Puig because Myers didnít run hard to first but he was still really good and baseball didnít explode.
13

15

17

15.3

16.5

16.2

.519

.539

26.2%

17.9%

44.1%

-6.0%

-1.0%

Boston lost to the Aís in extra innings, but donít worry Red Sox fans, one of these days your team will get over the hump!
14

17

9

15.8

16.2

15.6

.585

.604

82.7%

6.0%

88.7%

2.6%

15.5%

Everyone who had Ian Kinsler outhomering Prince Fielder this season was crazy, but at least so far, not wrong.
15

14

17

15.5

15.5

14.6

.495

.515

9.6%

11.1%

20.7%

4.1%

0.1%

Jose Bautista has walked 33 times this season, 0.56 of a mile, meaning, had he stolen your shoes at the start of the season, heíd have roughly 25 more walks to go before he could judge you.
16

15

17

15.6

14.9

15.2

.468

.488

3.8%

6.6%

10.4%

0.3%

-5.6%

Adam Dunn has a .409 on-base percentage, making that time the White Sox tried to change him into a slap hitter funny rather than sad.
17

17

14

14.6

14.5

14.6

.495

.515

17.3%

22.1%

39.4%

5.4%

-3.9%

No Rangers pitchers were injured in the writing of this comment whoops sorry spoke too soon.
18

13

18

13.6

14.4

14.5

.466

.486

5.1%

7.6%

12.7%

-2.4%

-4.5%

George Kottaras, expected to be DFAíd when Yan Gomes comes off paternity leave, homered twice last night. The only logical thing for the Indians to do is keep Gomes on paternity leave through means I canít discuss further on a family website.
19

16

14

13.3

13.9

13.6

.501

.521

30.0%

19.1%

49.1%

-1.7%

-8.9%

CC Sabathiaís average fastball velocity was almost 92 mph yesterday, so everyone blaming his velocity should try something else like have you noticed his weight loss?
20

14

15

14.7

13.8

13.8

.466

.486

3.1%

5.4%

8.5%

0.9%

-3.2%

Sure, Twins pitching has struck out 170 hitters, last in baseball and 122 fewer than the league-leading Nationals, but conversely theyíre only 10th-worst in walks!
21

11

18

13.8

13.7

13.6

.453

.433

1.4%

1.2%

2.7%

-0.4%

0.6%

The Cubs lead baseball in Monday ERA so this whole 100th anniversary of Wrigley Field hasnít been a total disaster.
22

12

19

13.8

13.1

13.8

.460

.440

3.6%

3.5%

7.1%

-1.1%

-2.0%

Last season on this date, the Pirates had five more wins and six fewer losses, all with a run differential swing of -15 runs.
23

11

23

11.0

13.0

13.4

.418

.399

0.1%

1.3%

1.4%

-0.8%

-0.2%

The Diamondbacks lead baseball with nine triples, which is probably where they should focus their energies going forward.
24

14

15

14.3

12.8

13.0

.483

.503

11.3%

16.0%

27.4%

5.4%

8.9%

Robinson Canoís slash line is .Mariners/.Second/.Baseman.
25

16

14

14.8

12.4

13.0

.464

.444

5.8%

6.8%

12.6%

1.9%

-0.8%

Dillon Gee held the Rockies to one run, something that had only happened twice this season and never in Colorado.
26

14

16

13.5

12.4

12.1

.459

.479

5.2%

9.5%

14.7%

-3.6%

-8.6%

Leadoff hitter Nori Aoki had three (of the Royals' five) walks yesterday. Aoki has 14 percent of the Royals' walks this season.
27

15

14

13.3

12.3

13.1

.472

.452

9.9%

10.5%

20.4%

2.9%

1.7%

Not sure if Ben Revereís homerless streak of 1,509 plate appearances is more amazing or PECOTA projecting Revere to hit three homers during the rest of the season.
28

15

14

13.9

11.6

11.4

.465

.485

7.7%

8.9%

16.6%

-5.2%

-0.2%

The Orioles have 66 walks, fewer than half as many as the league-leading Aís, but itís okay because Baltimore is a car-dependent city.
29

14

18

12.2

11.0

12.0

.435

.415

1.1%

6.4%

7.5%

1.3%

-3.1%

The Padres have scored 84 runs or as itís also known, not nearly enough.
30

10

21

9.8

10.7

11.2

.378

.397

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Chris Carter has struck out 37 times in 93 at-bats but thatís okay because [looks at other stats] [talks about weather].

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

Because Jose Bautista plays for Toronto, it could be said that he has walked just over 900 meters.

May 05, 2014 09:55 AM
up_image

+5

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Pat Folz

Do metric-using cultures have a proverb about "walking a kilometer" in someone's shoes?

Regardless, that comment was pure poetry.

May 05, 2014 13:31 PM
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+2

down_image
 
FastballVelociraptor

The Canadian spelling is "metres" though

May 07, 2014 06:09 AM
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0

down_image
 
oldbopper

Will the real Dee Gordon please stand up, because you are ruining my HACKING MASS team.

May 05, 2014 18:12 PM
up_image

+3

down_image
 
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