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Prospectus Hit List for September 17



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 15
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Don't sleep on this Hit List!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

94

57

91.6

93.6

92.7

.616

.634

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

By the time Mike Trout evolves into a Triple Crown-winner, they'll just end up giving the MVP to the guy with the highest WAR.
2

83

67

92.6

91.3

91.4

.597

.616

0.0%

96.9%

96.9%

-1.6%

0.8%

Somehow, Josh Reddick leads the team in triples with five, two more than Coco Crisp, who missed three months of the season due to a super secret space mission.
3

91

60

87.7

85.5

85.6

.579

.599

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They're AL East champions, but can the average Oriole fan name a single player? You can, if you legally change Steve Pearce's name to Boog Powell.
4

81

69

87.6

83.3

82.9

.558

.578

0.0%

36.3%

36.3%

17.0%

-11.5%

All things considered, Endy Chavez is having a breakout season. For Endy Chavez.
5

87

63

89.2

89.2

88.2

.589

.570

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

They clinched the division! Now for Phase Two: Quebec secedes from Canada and becomes annexed into America's capital.
6

84

67

81.3

82.6

81.7

.546

.566

85.5%

11.7%

97.2%

-1.7%

12.2%

J.D. Martinez has eight home runs in the ninth inning, or as many as David Wright has on the season.
7

86

65

85.1

90.3

88.0

.578

.559

88.9%

11.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

Prediction: Clayton Kershaw will win the NL Cy Young. And possibly the AL Cy Young. And the previous three AL Cy Youngs. And a regional Emmy.
8

74

78

77.2

83.3

83.4

.523

.543

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Why did Jose Molina help present Derek Jeter with a "framed" jers... oh I get it!
9

77

73

77.7

77.5

77.1

.515

.535

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

-0.6%

-2.0%

Helping someone clinch the division is like helping someone move. In a couple years they owe you to return the favor.
10

83

68

82.6

84.7

83.8

.553

.533

11.1%

87.6%

98.7%

0.5%

0.1%

Maybe if Sergio Romo asks people nicely, the opposing batters won't swing?
11

77

73

75.7

75.8

74.6

.505

.525

0.1%

4.0%

4.0%

1.2%

-2.0%

Jason Giambi doesn't need a retirement tour. Just an open field to stand and gaze toward the mountains.
12

82

68

77.2

71.3

71.5

.503

.523

14.4%

50.4%

64.8%

-14.1%

3.0%

Kelvin Herrera was finally used in the sixth inning. Ned Yost's permit paperwork must have finally been notarized.
13

80

70

79.2

82.3

82.7

.540

.520

10.8%

63.5%

74.3%

1.0%

18.2%

You don't know who John Holdzkom is, but he's the feel-good reliever story of the month. Make up your own cool story while you're at it. John Holdzkom was discovered, let's say, at Walgreen's.
14

83

68

76.6

79.5

79.0

.526

.506

87.7%

10.1%

97.9%

-1.2%

-1.2%

Out of habit, Mike Matheny calls for Allen Craig to pinch-hit, and Pete Kozma contemplates just grabbing a bat and seeing who stops him.
15

76

74

71.0

69.8

70.6

.479

.499

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.6%

This is going to be super-awkward when it's the Yankees' turn to give Derek Jeter a gift and they totally space.
16

79

72

75.6

75.6

74.9

.505

.485

1.5%

26.9%

28.4%

1.8%

9.3%

Quietly, Milwaukee made a nice little pickup with Gerardo Parra. Noisily, Milwaukee fell down the stairs down the stretch Chevy Chase-as-Gerald Ford-style.
17

75

76

74.8

74.2

74.0

.493

.473

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-2.0%

-24.5%

Their new field, SunTrust Park, is going to be a big win for regional banking but a large affront to faithful moon worshippers.
18

67

84

65.7

67.7

70.0

.448

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Through all the losses, Orbit is quickly asserting himself as one of the top mascots, meaning in 2017 they can trade him at the deadline for a bullpen arm.
19

69

82

66.2

67.1

66.8

.446

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Perhaps Robin Ventura makes so many pitching changes because he know every trip will most certainly not end in a headlock.
20

66

85

66.1

67.7

68.8

.445

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Questions this offseason: do you keep Rusney Castillo in Triple-A for another year to defend Pawtucket's Triple-A title?
21

64

87

68.4

67.6

67.6

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Kennys Vargas almosts hads as cycles buts couldn'ts hits as doubles.
22

73

77

72.2

72.4

71.4

.482

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-1.9%

Brad Penny is still pitching in the majors. As in, he is still in a game that is going on between pitches.
23

73

79

75.4

69.9

69.8

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

"We had joy, we had fun, we had Curtis Granderson..."
24

71

81

73.7

69.3

70.1

.467

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You can't jinx a no-hitter, so it's pointless to think you can do anything that will let the Reds get a hit in the first few innings.
25

67

84

66.6

72.3

72.7

.461

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One more near-no-hitter by Jake Arrieta and the next one's half off!
26

69

82

68.7

66.9

68.2

.452

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's best to keep Ryan Howard next season, because they already put a downpayment on a giant cake that says "CONGRATULATIONS RYAN ON YOUR 350TH HOME RUN." And they don't want the money to go to waste!
27

70

80

68.7

64.0

64.8

.446

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Just so we're clear, it's a "Maddux" if the guy throws a complete game under 100 pitches, and a "Cashner" if he did it with a beard.
28

60

91

66.7

68.6

64.9

.431

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I wonder how many more tickets the Rockies would have sold if they billed it as "featuring 20-game winner Tyler Matzek*" and then in smaller print "* - including all career minor league games." At least eight more tickets.
29

58

92

59.0

56.8

59.3

.388

.408

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Adrian Beltre has the second-best OPS+ of his career, which means from now on he will perform well if surrounded by sadness.
30

62

89

64.1

63.4

63.1

.418

.399

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Unlike the game RISK, the Diamondbacks are never again going to start a campaign in Australia.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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