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Prospectus Hit List for April 7



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 4 Hit List for April 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

This Hit List leads the league, but is it the wrong kind of league-leading!?

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

3

3

3.4

4.1

4.2

.568

.588

26.6%

18.2%

44.8%

3.9%

-0.2%

Not sure which has been worse, the sewage/plumbing in O.co coliseum or new closer Jim Johnson. How many pounds of raw sewage is equivalent to a 15.00 ERA?
2

3

3

2.3

1.9

2.0

.442

.462

17.7%

14.0%

31.7%

3.2%

-0.4%

Yu Darvish is the fastest to 500 strikeouts in major-league history. I was going to turn this into an Astros joke, but turns out he has the most against Anaheim. Whatever, ha ha Astros!
3

3

3

2.8

3.2

3.0

.510

.530

16.4%

19.1%

35.5%

3.0%

2.9%

The Yankees leading hitters are Ichiro and Yangervis Solarte, which is Dutch for sustainable slash line.
4

2

4

2.4

3.7

3.4

.491

.471

15.6%

11.8%

27.4%

2.9%

-5.4%

Billy Hamilton has six strikeouts and no hits in 12 plate appearances. He leads the league in times caught stealing. Wrong kind of league-leading!
5

2

7

2.5

2.7

2.8

.378

.360

1.6%

7.7%

9.3%

2.5%

-8.0%

Mark Trumbo has more total bases than any player. He keeps them in a pen behind his house. “I feed ‘em in the morning before I go to the park,” he says. “One time a fox got in there and he ate a few of ‘em but, otherwise, no problems.”
6

3

3

3.3

3.7

3.6

.516

.536

8.3%

6.8%

15.1%

2.4%

-0.5%

The White Sox lead baseball in getting hit by pitches which makes me think word that A.J. Pierzynski signed with Boston hasn’t made its way around the league yet.
7

4

2

3.9

3.5

3.3

.550

.531

14.3%

10.6%

24.9%

2.4%

3.2%

Pedro Alvarez has three hits in 22 at-bats. Two of them are home runs. Yup.
8

4

2

4.0

4.2

4.3

.590

.571

19.9%

13.8%

33.7%

2.4%

5.8%

Mark Reynolds made a great diving defensive play and a heads-up baserunning play. These are either signs that things are looking up, or signs of the apocalypse, depending on your point of view.
9

3

3

3.0

2.4

2.4

.446

.466

4.5%

3.5%

8.0%

2.2%

0.7%

In his first start, Ricky Nolasco gave up five runs in six innings. In his second start he gave up five runs in four innings. He’s not getting enough innings!
10

2

4

2.0

1.2

1.3

.379

.398

3.8%

8.4%

12.2%

1.9%

-3.7%

I was going to say, sure, Chris Davis has no homers, but last year he didn’t homer until some date, and you’d all feel better, but it turns out Davis homered in his first four games last season. So nevermind.
11

5

3

4.2

4.9

4.6

.588

.568

63.5%

23.9%

87.4%

1.6%

-6.6%

Two homers for Matt Kemp. If he’s hitting like that, PECOTA’s 99 win projection is going to be low.
12

2

4

2.6

3.0

3.2

.452

.432

2.9%

3.9%

6.7%

1.5%

-1.3%

The Cubs have announced shares in this team comment are for sale. “We feel strongly the comment needs major renovation,” said Cubs President Theo Epstein. “So we’re appealing to Cubs fans to give generously because, clearly, if you’ve been reading Mr. Kory’s work, fixing this is going to be expensive.”
13

2

4

1.4

1.6

1.8

.395

.376

5.3%

16.0%

21.2%

1.5%

-8.1%

The Padres are 2-0 when Huston Street saves the game and 0-4 when he doesn’t. Tell me closers aren’t valuable!
14

3

3

2.2

2.1

2.0

.398

.417

0.6%

1.0%

1.6%

0.5%

0.1%

The Astros are 3-3 to start the season, so everything from here on in is gravy.
15

4

2

3.9

3.7

3.8

.597

.578

62.2%

12.6%

74.8%

0.5%

3.5%

Baseball is too easy for Bryce Harper, who seems convinced it will only be challenge enough if he increases the difficulty setting by breaking some part of his body.
16

4

2

4.1

4.6

4.7

.613

.594

23.0%

20.5%

43.5%

0.1%

6.9%

B.J. Upton has 11 strikeouts and four total bases in 25 plate appearances. I get why he’s playing, but does he really have to bat second?
17

5

2

5.5

5.0

4.9

.578

.558

2.5%

4.0%

6.5%

-0.1%

2.3%

The highest-scoring team in baseball is the Miami Marlins. To quote a great American, early is as early does.
18

3

3

2.7

2.7

2.7

.474

.494

14.8%

9.8%

24.6%

-0.2%

-1.2%

Four good games in a row for Lonnie Chisenhall. Time to sign that six-year extension with three club options!
19

2

3

2.1

2.1

2.3

.457

.477

13.3%

9.2%

22.5%

-0.9%

-2.3%

James Shields has given up four runs in 13 innings over two starts and the Royals have lost both. See Royals fans? You’ll be just fine after he leaves next season.
20

2

4

2.4

2.7

2.7

.477

.497

25.6%

24.7%

50.2%

-1.0%

-4.0%

In 16 at-bats, A.J. Pierzynski has taken four balls. Total.
21

2

4

2.4

2.3

2.3

.460

.479

33.9%

22.1%

56.0%

-1.7%

-6.5%

The Angels bullpen has a league-leading 7.27 ERA. Wrong kind of league-leading!
22

3

3

3.4

3.5

3.4

.514

.494

8.1%

9.8%

17.8%

-1.9%

-1.0%

Looking at the Phillies stats, I thought I saw a home run in Ben Revere’s line. Revere had homered and nobody had bothered to tell me! I was inconsequential! Utterly irrelevant! Then I looked again and turned out it was just a Jayson Nix caught stealing, so crisis averted!
23

4

1

3.3

3.5

3.3

.620

.638

59.2%

10.0%

69.2%

-2.3%

10.4%

Rather than sign Stephen Drew, the Tigers are content to play Andrew Romine, a 28-year-old with a .269 career major-league slugging percentage. Wins? Who needs those? A draft pick though, those are forever!
24

3

4

3.6

4.1

3.9

.503

.483

2.9%

11.4%

14.3%

-2.6%

0.6%

Your leader in hitting is Charlie Blackmon who has a .542 batting average. Follow Blackmon’s quest to hit .500 right here for at least another two days!
25

2

4

2.0

1.4

1.5

.378

.359

4.3%

5.1%

9.5%

-2.8%

-4.6%

In their most recent loss, 2-1 to Cincinnati, the Mets were credited with no errors, which is probably an error.
26

4

2

4.6

4.3

4.2

.606

.625

21.2%

16.7%

37.9%

-2.9%

7.6%

Justin Smoak is hitting and they’re baseballs!
27

3

3

2.3

1.7

1.8

.455

.435

47.3%

13.2%

60.6%

-3.7%

-0.3%

In 23 plate appearances Jhonny Peralta has two walks and two homers, leading to the hilarious slash line, .095/.174/.381. OK, maybe ‘hilarious’ was a bit of an oversell.
28

3

4

2.5

2.2

2.5

.435

.455

9.3%

13.6%

23.0%

-4.0%

-3.2%

Three homers for Melky Cabrera, who had 10 last year. His slash line is .323/.323/.613 which is a Jeff Francoeur wet dream.
29

5

2

4.5

3.7

3.6

.570

.550

26.7%

35.7%

62.4%

-4.2%

12.9%

No team has homered more than the Giants who are all enjoying the upside of Barry Bonds cooties.
30

4

3

4.9

5.4

5.2

.628

.647

44.8%

22.8%

67.7%

-4.2%

0.2%

The re-signing of Yunel Escobar was met with anger and scorn by the Rays’ gay fan.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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