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Prospectus Hit List for April 4



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 2 Hit List for April 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's goin' down, I'm yelling Hit List!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

3

1

2.5

2.1

2.0

.572

.552

21.3%

36.6%

57.9%

3.6%

4.1%

The Giants had a five-run inning in the eighth. Last year they scored a total of four runs (estimated).
2

2

1

2.0

2.6

2.5

.657

.675

34.2%

28.4%

62.5%

4.4%

9.0%

You'd have to be a grade-A sizemor-on to ever question him coming back from injury!
3

2

2

2.8

2.7

2.6

.598

.617

37.3%

26.4%

63.8%

2.1%

-3.9%

The Chris Archer extension made perfect sense, but if they want to win the World Series they still need to lock up Chris Lightinfantry.
4

4

1

3.4

3.6

3.5

.659

.641

68.4%

21.3%

89.7%

-0.6%

-3.9%

The Dodgers will be just fine with their two-time Cy Young ace on the disabled list, reports Gullible Baseball Predictions Quarterly.
5

2

1

1.9

2.2

2.2

.599

.580

19.5%

21.3%

40.8%

1.0%

5.7%

His second operation should be free so long as they're fine with people calling it "Kris Medlen surgery" from now on.
6

0

3

0.3

0.2

0.2

.299

.317

31.3%

19.6%

50.9%

-0.8%

-9.1%

Time to find out if Mike Trout can get more Wins Above Replacement than the Angels have Wins Actually In The Standings.
7

1

2

1.0

1.0

1.1

.429

.448

13.7%

19.0%

32.7%

3.9%

-0.5%

Derek Jeter went to Houston and acquired cowboy boots, proving that season-long retirement ceremonies are not unlike text-based RPGs.
8

1

2

1.0

1.2

1.3

.444

.424

6.1%

18.7%

24.8%

-0.9%

-3.5%

The only stolen bases on the team are courtesy of their catcher and first baseman. And you doubted the practicality of the camouflage uniforms.
9

2

2

2.3

2.9

2.9

.575

.594

27.1%

17.3%

44.4%

2.8%

-2.1%

They're working on the sewage problem, but now the O.co Coliseum locker rooms and offices are flooded with Internet comments. "This is considerably worse," Billy Beane whimpers.
10

3

1

3.4

3.3

3.1

.650

.668

21.5%

15.3%

36.9%

-1.5%

5.6%

We haven't seen the Mariners fans this happy about baseball since last year when Ken Griffey, Jr. hit a ... oh god, that was TWENTY years ago?
11

2

2

1.2

1.3

1.4

.436

.456

11.0%

14.4%

25.5%

-3.8%

-2.5%

Mark Buehrle struck out 11 on Wednesday. His high last year (non-Astros) was seven.
12

1

2

1.3

1.8

1.8

.501

.481

17.5%

14.0%

31.5%

-4.2%

-1.1%

The Reds were happy to play in something other than a 1-0 game, but thankfully the scoreboard operator finally found the box containing the other numbers.
13

2

1

1.3

1.4

1.4

.510

.530

19.2%

13.3%

32.5%

-0.7%

-0.5%

Shin-Soo Choo scored the winning run on Tuesday, drew the walkoff walk on Wednesday, did nothing on Thursday, and today is casual Friday, so however he helps them win it'll be in jeans.
14

1

3

1.0

1.4

1.5

.397

.378

2.7%

12.0%

14.6%

-1.2%

2.0%

Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and LaTroy Hawkins are still producing for them because if you squint hard enough, Rockies uniforms look like Twins ones.
15

2

1

1.7

1.2

1.2

.522

.502

51.7%

11.8%

63.5%

3.6%

1.8%

It took eight plate appearances, but Jhonny Peralta finally tied Pete Kozma's home run total from last year (448 PA).
16

3

0

2.5

2.5

2.5

.712

.696

67.7%

11.6%

79.3%

2.4%

5.9%

In the event a president mascot race ends in a tie, they should really break it using a vice-president mascot race.
17

1

2

1.1

0.8

0.8

.399

.380

15.1%

11.4%

26.5%

2.6%

-0.8%

That's right, focus on the dog. Stare not at the scoreboard or the standings, look at this adorable little doggy-woggy.
18

2

1

1.7

0.9

0.9

.471

.451

11.6%

9.9%

21.5%

-3.7%

-1.4%

After winning on walkoff fashion in the 16th inning on Wednesday, you just know Clint Hurdle drunk-texted Jerry Meals at 3 a.m. like 20 times.
19

2

0

1.3

1.4

1.3

.640

.658

55.9%

9.8%

65.6%

-0.7%

7.3%

Two games, two walkoff wins by players they acquired in the offseason. At this rate they'll have an undefeated season but also 160 more weird trades.
20

2

1

1.4

1.2

1.2

.481

.501

17.5%

9.7%

27.2%

0.9%

1.7%

At some point a young team no longer can be considered young; Danny Salazar is the only man on their roster younger than 25.
21

1

5

2.1

2.1

2.2

.396

.377

1.5%

9.4%

10.9%

-1.6%

-2.4%

There are children in the world nearly six months old who have never seen Paul Goldschmidt go hitless in a game. If the streak ends, you're gonna hear the ensuing colicky mayhem.
22

1

2

1.7

1.6

1.6

.479

.459

7.1%

9.4%

16.5%

-0.8%

-1.0%

Jonathan Papelbon's mouth predicts a Phillies World Series. Jonathan Papelbon's arm sighs loudly, but it has no mouth so we can't hear it.
23

1

2

1.0

0.4

0.5

.358

.376

3.8%

9.1%

12.9%

-3.2%

-1.1%

"It'll be a long single for Delmon Young," the announcer bellows, insinuating there are other kinds.
24

0

2

0.7

0.6

0.7

.369

.388

12.2%

7.2%

19.4%

-1.1%

-4.6%

They haven't won yet, but look on the bright side: Tim Collins finally got his learner's permit!
25

2

1

1.7

2.1

2.0

.557

.576

10.5%

6.8%

17.3%

-3.0%

1.7%

Adam Dunn on the year: 14 PA, two HR, two BB, five K, and countless sack lunches consumed by the fielders.
26

0

3

0.5

0.5

0.5

.295

.278

3.9%

5.3%

9.2%

-2.2%

-6.4%

The previous over/under on Jose Valverde becoming an MLB closer again was set at ±asteroid. It took one full Mets game, which is roughly equivalent.
27

1

2

1.3

2.1

2.1

.498

.478

4.1%

4.2%

8.3%

1.3%

0.4%

Ats off to Mike Olt on itting is first major league ome run.
28

3

1

3.0

2.6

2.5

.560

.540

1.7%

3.3%

5.0%

0.5%

0.6%

That's MISTER Early Season RBI Leader Casey McGehee to you.
29

1

2

1.3

0.9

1.0

.398

.418

4.0%

2.7%

6.7%

1.6%

-1.2%

Chris Colabello rejected a million dollar contract overseas so he could have a six-RBI game for the Twins. Money well rejected.
30

2

1

2.0

2.0

1.9

.534

.554

0.8%

1.0%

1.8%

-0.9%

0.1%

Don't read too much into these early results; this was merely one short series against one $200 million-payroll team.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


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