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Prospectus Hit List for May 25



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for May 22
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

There's a real dog fight for the bottom in the NL West.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

27

17

27.5

29.8

30.1

.650

.654

42.9%

24.4%

67.3%

4.2%

0.8%

It’s great that teams are getting more inventive with their reliever usage, but having Luis Severino throw eight innings yesterday seemed a bit extreme.
2

31

16

29.4

29.1

29.1

.631

.636

90.0%

7.0%

97.0%

-0.3%

-1.2%

The Astros are giving away a bobblehead of Chris Devenski riding a Dragon for Game of Thrones night in June, which has to be the coolest giveaway for a random reliever ever.
3

27

20

29.9

29.6

28.9

.614

.609

67.1%

27.1%

94.3%

-0.9%

-0.1%

Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson both suffered injuries after colliding on Wednesday night, meaning they’re now officially listed as starting pitchers on the Dodgers’ depth chart.
4

29

19

29.5

29.6

28.8

.609

.604

13.6%

45.0%

58.6%

2.3%

12.6%

Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin and J.J. Hoover engaged in a cow-milking contest on Tuesday in what Dave Stewart would’ve considered a gritty enough showing to offer them all extensions.
5

28

17

27.5

27.2

25.8

.603

.598

89.0%

3.1%

92.1%

2.1%

-0.8%

I am impressed by Anthony Rendon’s continued commitment to looking like one of the three musketeers.
6

31

17

27.5

28.0

28.4

.599

.594

18.6%

52.0%

70.6%

3.0%

11.6%

The Rockies are the first NL Team to reach 30 wins this season. PECOTA had them projected for 30 wins all year.
7

24

25

26.5

29.3

29.9

.559

.564

13.4%

20.8%

34.2%

1.8%

-1.2%

Steven Souza Jr. homered twice yesterday, but I’ll shield you from any more Wil Myers jokes.
8

24

21

23.8

25.9

26.4

.557

.562

72.5%

11.8%

84.4%

-3.0%

2.9%

“Tribe can’t slow down Hamilton’s rally” reads the MLB.com headline that’s also historically accurate.
9

23

20

23.8

24.0

24.3

.553

.548

19.1%

15.4%

34.5%

2.8%

-0.5%

Someone should probably make one of those “Brace Yourself: Regression Is Coming” memes for Mike Leake.
10

24

21

24.3

24.3

24.3

.538

.543

35.0%

25.2%

60.2%

3.5%

1.5%

Ah yes, Memorial Day and the calls to put John Farrell’s head on a spike. The two surest signs that summer is truly here.
11

25

18

21.9

22.6

22.5

.535

.540

18.0%

21.0%

39.0%

1.6%

16.5%

Jose Berrios has 22 strikeouts through three starts, putting him on pace to single-handedly out-strikeout the 2012 Twins rotation by July.
12

24

21

24.3

24.4

24.6

.541

.536

61.4%

14.0%

75.4%

1.3%

0.2%

The year is 2350. The aliens have come for us all. After destroying our civilization, their scholars seek to write down what they can glean from who we were. “It appears,” they write, “as though Jon Lester could not throw to first base.”
13

20

25

24.1

23.2

23.2

.503

.508

1.6%

3.2%

4.9%

-0.2%

0.6%

It’s hard to believe Jose Abreu has 100 MLB homeruns already. It will be even wilder when Rusney Castillo, Alex Guerrero and Hector Olivera get there.
14

25

20

22.7

20.8

21.4

.499

.504

5.9%

10.7%

16.6%

-3.0%

-9.4%

The Orioles hit three homers but still fell to the Twins yesterday in a timely reminder that just slamming your opponents won't make them go away.
15

25

21

25.1

21.6

21.7

.508

.503

13.5%

13.5%

27.0%

-3.6%

-8.6%

“Davies looks to elongate outings” reads the Brewers.com headline that seems awfully personal.
16

22

24

23.1

24.1

23.6

.505

.500

2.1%

3.0%

5.0%

0.3%

-2.3%

Much is being made of Billy Hamilton scoring from first base on a single to left field yesterday, but when you think about it every runner scores from first base in some way.
17

25

24

23.9

24.0

23.6

.493

.498

1.8%

12.5%

14.2%

-3.0%

3.6%

The Mariners: “No one could possibly have more starting pitcher injuries than us.” The Angels: “Hold my beer. No, please hold it, my arm is killing me.”
18

24

23

25.0

21.8

21.0

.488

.493

6.1%

26.9%

33.1%

-3.3%

-0.8%

The Rangers have a 5.21 bullpen ERA and have blown nine saves, but other than that things are going pretty well for their relievers.
19

21

25

18.7

23.6

23.1

.470

.475

0.6%

5.9%

6.5%

0.9%

1.4%

The way Sonny Gray is pitching lately, Billy Beane might be able to get *three* largely anonymous prospects for him this July instead of just two.
20

22

23

21.4

19.6

20.0

.461

.466

7.3%

12.2%

19.5%

3.0%

-4.6%

It’s not surprising that Victor Martinez leads the Tigers in batting average. What is surprising is that he’s doing so while hitting .260.
21

21

26

22.3

20.8

21.1

.453

.458

2.9%

6.9%

9.8%

0.6%

2.9%

It’s been a tough season for the Blue Jays injury-wise, but at least they get to enjoy up-and-coming young talent like Anthony Alfoahhh damnit.
22

20

24

19.5

20.7

19.7

.454

.449

1.7%

2.6%

4.3%

-0.5%

-0.8%

Congrats to Matt Adams on becoming the latest Hit List Reverse Jinx winner! He’s already hitting .385 with two homers as a Brave.
23

20

27

20.2

20.1

20.5

.430

.435

1.5%

10.5%

12.0%

-2.3%

-12.1%

The Mariners optioned Emilio Pagan to Triple-A yesterday in what’s been called the worst witch hunt in bullpen history.
24

21

26

20.4

19.6

20.4

.433

.428

3.9%

4.6%

8.5%

1.9%

-1.2%

Jose Osuna had more clutch hits yesterday than Carlos Beltran has had in his career /ducks
25

19

25

20.0

17.5

16.5

.415

.410

8.3%

9.2%

17.5%

-5.8%

-4.4%

The most shocking revelation from the new Game of Thrones trailer? Ned Stark had been acting on advice from the Mets training staff ...
26

19

27

17.7

17.1

18.9

.395

.400

0.5%

0.9%

1.4%

-0.6%

-0.9%

Add Mother Nature to the long list of rivals who’ve held the Royals scoreless this year.
27

16

29

18.0

19.2

19.1

.402

.397

0.9%

0.7%

1.5%

-0.9%

-1.3%

Edinson Volquez is 0-7 through nine starts in what’s becoming the best argument for valuing the Wins stat in years.
28

15

29

18.3

17.2

17.5

.386

.381

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

-0.1%

-1.2%

The Pete Mackanin - Michael Franco relationship is deteriorating faster than Michael Saunders’ trade value.
29

20

28

16.9

16.5

18.3

.374

.369

0.6%

9.5%

10.1%

-2.2%

-3.2%

A giraffe and a Buster mad at each other? Sounds like an episode of Arthur, tbh.
30

17

31

14.8

17.2

17.9

.349

.344

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

David Leavitt is gonna have an easier time finding a new job than Jered Weaver. The not-on-fireballer has now surrendered 35 earned runs in 41 innings.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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