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Prospectus Hit List for September 24



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 23 Hit List for September 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The last Tuesday Hit List of the year.

RkTmW LW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

95

62

97.3

96.8

95.8

.613

.632

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox have mathematically clinched the American League East, but given their last two seasons, if there is any team that could find a way to out-do math and fail anyway, it's the Red Sox.
2

94

63

92.8

92.3

90.1

.588

.607

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The A's are one game behind Boston for the best record, or as it's also known, that thing we forgot as soon as both teams are eliminated in the division series.
3

92

64

93.1

91.7

88.2

.585

.565

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The most recent four months of the Evan Gattis Miracle by OPS: .567, .609, .438, .686. Hope Brian McCann's agent isn't reading this.
4

92

65

96.3

89.3

89.1

.584

.564

83.1%

16.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

The Cardinals worst monthly record was accomplished with their second-best monthly run differential. So they've got that going for them. Which is nice.
5

91

66

96.3

103.4

102.2

.626

.644

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Memo to playoff teams: Justin Verlander: six shutout innings, 12 strikeouts, three walks.
6

90

66

85.0

89.9

87.5

.565

.545

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sign my petition for Vin Scully to come to your office and tell your boss what a doofus he's being!
7

90

67

83.6

86.7

87.8

.554

.534

3.9%

96.1%

100.0%

0.1%

0.1%

The Pirates clinched a playoff spot. A rumbling can be heard in graveyards throughout the greater Pittsburgh area as just about every dead person rolls over.
8

90

67

92.2

92.8

92.9

.586

.566

13.1%

86.9%

100.0%

0.1%

1.8%

Do the Reds have a Shin-Soo Choo Choo that goes around the field because if not they should definitely build one now.
9

87

69

82.7

91.5

92.1

.566

.586

0.0%

92.6%

92.6%

2.5%

10.8%

After hitting his walk-off homer, James Loney made his way through high-fiving teammates to the clubhouse and took off his full body costume, whereupon Dan Johnson walked quietly out onto the street and into the night, smiling slightly to himself.
10

86

70

84.7

82.6

82.8

.538

.558

0.1%

63.3%

63.4%

-9.4%

17.3%

It's gonna blow your mind next March when everybody is writing "fantasy sleeper" columns about Scott Kazmir, 8.9 Ks/9 and 3.4 Ks/BB.
11

85

71

87.0

86.2

85.8

.551

.571

0.0%

42.2%

42.2%

7.2%

-11.6%

Alex Rios hit for the cycle, which he wouldn't have done had Ron Washington not inspired him no no I just can't do this.
12

84

73

81.9

82.7

80.7

.524

.504

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-2.0%

The Nationals are officially eliminated which means it's about time they brought Teddy Roosevelt in to pitch. #PitchTeddy
13

83

73

83.7

77.0

78.2

.516

.536

0.0%

1.5%

1.5%

0.0%

-6.4%

The Royals are a super-charged 12-cylinder engine and Ned Yost is a set of state-of-the-art ceramic brakes.
14

82

74

76.8

68.8

70.6

.478

.498

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.1%

-4.2%

Now without CC Sabathia for the rest of the season, the Yankees playoff chances are, well, about the same as with C.C. Sabathia.
15

81

75

82.1

79.0

80.3

.517

.537

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-5.9%

First they lose Manny Machado, then they give up a walk-off homer to James Loney. Baseball isn't just hard, it's mean.
16

79

77

78.5

76.3

76.0

.497

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Hope the Diamondbacks make another awful trade this offseason so we'll have something fun to discuss for next season's Hit List!
17

76

80

78.1

79.4

78.1

.499

.519

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Over two seasons the Angels will have received 20 wins from Mike Trout, will have paid him under a million dollars for those wins, and will have finished a combined 21 1/2 games out of first place.
18

73

83

67.6

68.2

68.9

.445

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How bad are the Padres? If you reverse their record they're still not any good.
19

72

84

70.9

75.5

76.2

.472

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Given that the Giants winning two World Series in three seasons was as unlikely, I'm putting money down on the Giants to win another one this year. You can do it guys! Well, you can't, but you can!
20

71

85

73.1

70.9

72.8

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At this point the Blue Jays could acquire Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, and Ted Williams and everyone would go, "What are you doing? All those guys are dead!" So critical!
21

71

85

71.0

68.6

67.9

.446

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Baseball Prospectus needs to junk PECOTA and come out with DUDA. It wouldn't be nearly as accurate, but it would be far more totally awesome.
22

71

85

64.3

64.4

65.9

.426

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a tribute to Roy Halladay, who walked two of three hitters in the first inning before being removed from the game, reliever Luis Garcia walked his first two hitters. Those Phillies stick together.
23

70

86

71.9

74.3

76.4

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Gomez came to the plate five times. He struck out four times and homered. Because that's just the kind of player Carlos Gomez is.
24

71

86

74.3

73.8

70.7

.461

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies next solution to the altitude problem is to cover the baseballs with little humidors made of pressurized rubber. We'll see how that works next season.
25

68

89

64.8

69.7

69.6

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners hit back-to-back homers in the eighth inning to tie the game. Players who entered the game as a defensive replacement and a pinch-runner hit them. I can't decide if that's great or awful.
26

66

90

61.5

65.6

66.1

.415

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins played seven players whose last name starts with "P": Presley, Pinto, Parmelee, Plouffle, Pelfrey, Pressly (a different one), and Perkins. Pretty peculiar!
27

65

92

70.8

73.7

74.4

.452

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs can't get into the playoffs themselves, but at least they helped the Pirates do it. They should raise a flag for that on opening day next year. It can say "YOU'RE WELCOME" in big letters.
28

62

94

65.7

64.6

64.7

.412

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The White Sox are last in the American League in walks, but it's not because they don't like walking, it's just because they can't.
29

58

99

62.1

59.3

60.0

.381

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton was walked three times for just the third time this season. That just might be the most surprising stat of the season.
30

51

106

55.5

50.4

53.4

.335

.353

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At what point does losing 12-0 become good because it's just one more day closer to being done with this?

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
flyingdutchman

"Memo to playoff teams: Justin Verlander: six shutout innings, 12 strikeouts, three walks."

Memo from playoff teams: "...and the Tigers still lost. Wonderful bullpen!"

Sep 24, 2013 09:47 AM
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0

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flyingdutchman

"Memo to playoff teams: Justin Verlander: six shutout innings, 12 strikeouts, three walks."

Memo from playoff teams: "...and the Tigers still lost. Wonderful bullpen!"

Sep 24, 2013 09:47 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
flyingdutchman

"Memo to playoff teams: Justin Verlander: six shutout innings, 12 strikeouts, three walks."

Memo from playoff teams: "...and the Tigers still lost. Wonderful bullpen!"

Sep 24, 2013 09:47 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
newsense

I think you mean ceramic BRAKES, although many ceramics do break pretty easily

Sep 24, 2013 11:21 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

I do mean that. And I'll change it. Then I'll say I don't have any idea what you're talking about!!

Sep 24, 2013 11:33 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
ceadie

The Jays could aquire Wayne Gretzky as bench coach and Canadians would say, " Pretty cool, eh ? " and Americans would say .... nothing.

Sep 24, 2013 11:46 AM
up_image

0

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