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Prospectus Hit List for September 19



by Sam Miller

Hit List for September 18 Hit List for September 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's a hit.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLF AHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

56

96

60.2

56.4

57.2

.378

.359

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Must-win game for the Marlins today. If they lose, they're officially eliminated from next year's race.
2

51

101

55.5

50.3

52.9

.345

.363

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have used 16 pitchers this year with sub-replacement WARPs.
3

71

81

63.2

63.9

65.6

.434

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since Delmon Young was released in August, Domonic Brown has hit .222/.271/.241.
4

68

83

68.3

66.0

65.4

.443

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mets came back against Sergio Romo in the ninth. In 10 career innings, the Mets have scored 12 runs off Romo. In 35 career innings, the Padres have scored two.
5

71

80

66.2

67.0

67.5

.450

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Via Jonah Keri: In Huston Street's past 26 innings, he has allowed one run on 11 hits.
6

60

92

64.0

63.0

62.9

.411

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The White Sox are 0-5 when John and Jordan Danks both start. Thanks, but no Danks.
7

63

89

68.6

71.3

71.7

.452

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The good news is that Starlin Castro has hit .279/.312/.385 in high-leverage situations. THE GOOD NEWS!
8

69

84

72.6

71.5

68.6

.460

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pro-tip: Don't just take the Rockies' stats at face value. The ballpark affects them. So, with hitters, adjust downward. With pitchers, give 'em a little extra credit. That'll be $40 per year please.
9

65

86

61.4

65.1

65.3

.425

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A lot of these Twins, I couldn't pick 'em out of a lineup, which is what they're in.
10

68

83

69.8

72.5

74.2

.471

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The key to making the Brewers good: Trading for Brad Hand. They already have Donovan Hand and, like my coach always told us, always use two Hands. (!!!!!!!!!!)
11

67

85

62.6

67.5

67.0

.434

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you had to bet your house on who would keep playing longer, Dustin Ackley or Raul Ibanez, you'd pick Ackley. But you'd be sort of nervous, no?
12

70

82

69.9

74.4

75.2

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sometimes it's just like, man, is Buster Posey *ever* gonna get that third World Series ring?
13

77

74

76.0

73.9

73.9

.498

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Some people say hitting coaches don't matter, but since George Brett resigned as the Royals' hitting coach, Aaron Hill is hitting .329/.395/.527.
14

69

82

70.8

68.1

69.9

.460

.480

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Blue Jays lead the league in [some dumb thing] but they're only 14th in [some other dumb thing].
15

80

72

74.2

66.4

68.4

.475

.495

0.0%

3.4%

3.4%

1.1%

-11.2%

All around the country, millions of people are rooting for the Yankees. (They're all the players who cycled onto and off of the roster this year and stand to get a valuable ring if the Yankees win it all.)
16

81

71

78.6

80.1

78.6

.523

.504

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

-2.3%

-0.7%

Obviously, need more data, but so far the Nationals win the NL East every year they shut Strasburg down early and they lose it every yea
17

74

78

76.5

77.8

76.5

.501

.521

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The only thing that could make Mike Trout suck is if he hit free agency and the Angels signed him.
18

87

65

80.8

83.4

84.4

.552

.532

10.7%

89.0%

99.7%

0.2%

-0.1%

Sure, the Pirates have snapped their 20-year streak without a winning season. But there's work to be done: in 132 seasons, they have *never* won a Wild Card play-in game.
19

80

72

81.2

74.7

75.9

.513

.533

0.0%

4.4%

4.4%

1.5%

-1.3%

Alfonso Soriano, post-trade: .254/.304/.524. Justin Maxwell, post-trade: .282/.366/.521.
20

87

65

82.5

87.0

85.0

.562

.542

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ronald Belisario of all people leads the NL in intentional walks. He has issued three more this year than Jon Lester has in his career.
21

81

70

80.6

78.0

79.0

.527

.547

0.0%

13.8%

13.8%

5.4%

4.9%

A 5.64 ERA as a rookie? That's just the way it gausman. (Note: Is it pronounced "goes man"? Hope so.)
22

82

70

81.3

79.1

79.9

.530

.550

0.1%

42.3%

42.4%

-11.9%

22.8%

Marc Rzepczynski had a 1.94 WHIP with the Cardinals; he has a 1.08 ERA with the Indians.
23

87

66

89.4

89.9

89.8

.582

.562

13.3%

86.0%

99.3%

1.9%

0.8%

Billy Hamilton has nine stolen bases; nobody on the Cardinals or Tigers has that many.
24

82

69

82.8

81.9

81.4

.543

.563

0.3%

57.0%

57.3%

-5.4%

-31.4%

"Now look here you don't Tex with mess... aw, crud, we screwed that up, too."
25

89

63

93.4

86.8

86.3

.585

.565

76.0%

24.0%

100.0%

0.2%

0.0%

Oh yeah, well, every one of their full-season affiliate had a losing record, so, you know, not all that, you know, great, after all, right?
26

90

62

91.1

89.9

86.4

.588

.568

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since 1970, no fewer than four Hall of Famers have allowed as many runs in a month as Craig Kimbrel has in his career.
27

83

68

79.9

88.9

89.5

.565

.585

0.0%

78.6%

78.6%

9.4%

15.8%

At first when Freddy Guzman walked into the clubhouse people thought it was one of Joe Maddon's wacky clubhouse stunts, like the penguin, and the bounce house, and the hookah lounge, and the replica of Archie Andrews' old jalopy, and the
28

89

63

87.3

86.9

84.8

.572

.592

99.7%

0.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Somebody asked me which player I thought was most likely actually a user-generated video game character. I said Eric Sogard. FYI.
29

92

61

94.6

94.4

93.6

.612

.631

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since the streak-snapping triple by Danny Valencia, Koji Uehara has retired six in a row.
30

88

64

93.4

100.3

99.3

.627

.645

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

There's a pretty cool Tigers Fun Fact coming your way. Look for it in the Reds' section of this Hit List!

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
Howler37

I've been reading the Hit List since the beginning of the season and the Tigers have been in the top slot pretty much all the time. Their AHLF has been in the mid .600s most of the time and everybody else below .600, but now the Red Sox are getting close. Wonder if they'll catch up and pass the Tigers in the remaining games.....

Sep 19, 2013 08:21 AM
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0

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happyfunmiles

Sorry, it's "GOSS-men". Nice try, though!

Sep 19, 2013 10:09 AM
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+1

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NYYanks826

Can't always be right. Sometimes that's just the way it Gausman.

Sep 19, 2013 13:17 PM
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0

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DeathSpeculum

sam,
were you relegated to Hit List duty since Aceathon is taking over the podcast, your twitter handle and presumably, the task of feeding your family?

Sep 19, 2013 11:15 AM
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+2

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anderson721

That Angels comment is just cruel. In other words, nice job, kid.

Sep 19, 2013 14:53 PM
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0

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