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Prospectus Hit List for September 18



by Ben Lindbergh

Hit List for September 17 Hit List for September 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Oh Bengie you, you got what I need. 'Cause you wrote Hit List again, 'cause you wrote Hit List again.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

81

70

78.4

79.7

78.1

.525

.505

0.0%

3.3%

3.3%

1.4%

1.7%

Lowest non-Mark Melancon ERA in the majors, minimum 40 IP: Tanner Roark, 1.08. Eat your heart out, Uehara.
2

69

81

70.4

67.7

69.5

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

R.A. Dickey faced 26 batters and threw 23 first-pitch strikes on Tuesday. Among AL pitchers, only Anibal Sanchez and Joe Blanton have had starts this season in which they faced at least 25 batters and had a higher ratio. Not bad for a knuckleballer.
3

82

68

82.4

81.6

81.1

.545

.565

0.4%

62.3%

62.7%

8.9%

-28.4%

The Rangers have six relievers with sub-3.4 FIPs, which makes it even more inevitable that Ron Washington will call for Michael Kirkman with the Wild Card game on the line.
4

82

68

79.3

88.2

88.6

.563

.583

0.0%

69.3%

69.3%

-12.5%

5.7%

At long last, 2008 no. 1 pick Tim Beckham is a big leaguer. Picks 2-21, all of whom made the majors before him, have already combined for almost 65 WARP.
5

88

63

92.8

86.4

85.9

.585

.565

65.2%

34.6%

99.8%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Don't sleep on Kevin Siegrist! Relievers need their rest.
6

70

81

69.5

73.8

74.6

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Late-season sensation Yusmeiro Petit spent 2011-12 repeatedly being released by and re-signing with Seattle. He's finding San Francisco more to his taste.
7

66

85

61.3

66.5

66.0

.430

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I'm not saying Raul Ibanez definitely feeds on the life force of promising young players in order to remain productive after age 40, but it would explain a lot of things about Seattle's season.
8

70

80

65.6

66.4

66.8

.448

.428

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Padres played spoiler in Pittsburgh, then went home and wondered what it says about them that they can't just be happy about someone else's success.
9

87

64

80.4

83.0

84.2

.554

.534

20.9%

78.6%

99.5%

-0.4%

-0.3%

Before you start talking about how the Pirates have turned other teams' castoffs into productive players, do a quick sweep for Travis Snider. It's only polite.
10

71

80

62.8

63.4

65.2

.434

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Other than the lack of velocity, command, groundballs, and missed bats, another vintage outing for Roy Halladay.
11

89

62

86.9

86.3

84.1

.573

.593

99.6%

0.4%

100.0%

0.0%

1.1%

The A's will open the Coliseum's third deck for the ALDS, both to accommodate more fans and to give those in the lower levels somewhere to flee to when the sewage level rises.
12

67

83

67.7

65.6

65.0

.442

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After a Monday meeting with Dr. James Andrews, Matt Harvey decided to try rehabbing his injured elbow. "I'm completely confident that he'll avoid surgery," thought no one who heard the news.
13

79

72

73.6

65.9

67.9

.474

.494

0.0%

2.4%

2.4%

-2.1%

-5.8%

Alex Rodriguez has a tight right calf and a tight left hamstring. Judging by the self-portraits in his apartment, that leaves him with two fully functional legs.
14

64

86

60.8

64.7

64.9

.424

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Though no one would've minded if the two teams had pretended to have an offday, the Twins and White Sox went ahead with their matchup anyway. One of them won, I'm sure.
15

67

83

68.5

71.7

73.5

.468

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Concerned by baseball's rapidly rising strikeout rates, Bud Selig is considering a "best interests of baseball" decree that all batters "be more like Norichika Aoki."
16

55

96

59.6

55.8

56.7

.376

.357

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeff Mathis went 0-for-3 at the plate and 2-for-2 at working well with pitchers.
17

87

64

82.6

87.0

84.9

.565

.546

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Kemp has played in two consecutive games. Cal Ripken's not nervous yet, but he has to be hearing footsteps.
18

79

72

80.1

73.6

74.9

.509

.529

0.0%

2.9%

2.9%

-5.0%

-0.2%

After hitting 100 mph five times but failing to top Yordano Ventura's 102-mph third-inning offering, Kelvin Herrera was overheard telling teammates that PITCHf/x is "probably pretty inaccurate."
19

51

100

55.1

49.4

51.9

.343

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Though they came within one pitch of putting a runner on down 10-0 in the ninth, the Astros were outrated in the Houston market by two test patterns on stations that went off the air early.
20

88

63

93.7

100.2

99.3

.631

.649

99.8%

0.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

"A long time, I had not hit a home run," said Miguel Cabrera after ending a 15-game drought with his 44th dinger. "Everything is relative," responded Ben Revere.
21

69

83

72.2

70.9

67.9

.461

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I was all set to support Todd Helton's Hall of Fame candidacy, but last night's 0-fer has made me seriously reconsider.
22

82

69

81.4

79.1

79.9

.534

.554

0.2%

54.2%

54.3%

8.2%

30.4%

Instead of recruiting an imprisoned pitcher with poor control, a catcher with no knees, and an outfielder who couldn't hit curveballs, Rachel Phelps should have taken a simpler approach to tanking the Indians' attendance: wait 'til 2013.
23

86

66

88.8

89.8

89.9

.583

.564

13.9%

83.5%

97.4%

-0.8%

-1.3%

A fed-up Billy Hamilton finally stole first base, forcing everyone to find a new cliché with which to criticize low-OBP speedsters.
24

63

88

68.8

71.1

71.5

.454

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With his third 30-save season, Kevin Gregg joins Joe Borowski, Danny Graves, and Shawn Chacon on the Mount Rushmore of mediocre closers.
25

60

91

63.6

62.4

62.4

.411

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeff Keppinger's walk rate prior to 2013: 6.6 percent. Jeff Keppinger's walk rate since going 140 PA without one to start the season: 6.7 percent. This concludes today's parable about regression and small sample size.
26

92

60

94.3

93.6

92.7

.613

.632

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you picked Danny Valencia and his lifetime .269 OBP vs. right-handed pitchers as the man who would break Koji Uehara's streak of consecutive batters retired, your results were good, but your process sucked.
27

80

70

79.9

77.8

78.6

.527

.547

0.0%

8.4%

8.4%

2.5%

-3.1%

Another one-run win with four scoreless by the bullpen and a stress-free save by Jim Johnson. Buck Showalter works his magic aga—wait, what year is it?
28

89

62

90.3

89.3

85.8

.587

.567

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

The Braves are a .481 team on the road. Fortunately, they were wise enough to schedule half of their games at home.
29

76

74

75.0

72.9

73.0

.495

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

The Diamondbacks used 23 players to complete a nine-inning game that they lost by six runs. September baseball, everybody.
30

73

78

75.9

77.4

76.0

.500

.520

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Courtesy of @CespedesBBQ, the GIF that perfectly sums up the Angels' season.

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
dodgerdan

You sure nailed the Matt Kemp comment. He is the answer to another distinguished Dodger, 1st baseman/outfielder Mike Marshall. For his entire career, Mike wore a medical alert bracelet, identifying himself as a hypochondriac.

Sep 18, 2013 13:54 PM
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