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Prospectus Hit List for September 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 16 Hit List for September 18
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Don't. Stop. Thinking about the Hit List.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

87

63

92.8

99.4

98.6

.630

.648

99.7%

0.3%

100.0%

0.1%

0.8%

Austin Jackson has attempted 11 steals this season. You can almost hear Jim Leyland's Pall Mall-tinged voice growling, 'Get thrown out in front of Prince or Miguel and you can forget leadoff, you'll be hitting behind the entire Triple-A team.'
2

92

59

93.8

93.1

92.3

.615

.633

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"I work on a field that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded with gloves. Deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me by that wall. You need me by that wall. So I can, you know, catch stuff." ' Jacoby Ellsbury
3

85

66

87.2

88.7

88.9

.579

.559

11.5%

86.7%

98.2%

1.3%

-0.9%

Johnny Cueto is back! Hide the playoff spots!
4

82

67

79.5

88.3

88.8

.568

.588

0.0%

81.8%

81.8%

10.7%

16.5%

If the Rays faced the Rangers all the time they wouldn't have had this horrible month. It's always good to have something to ask the Tooth Fairy for.
5

89

60

89.8

88.5

84.9

.591

.571

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Braves have given up the fewest runs in baseball imodium joke!
6

87

63

91.6

85.0

84.8

.581

.561

50.5%

49.4%

99.9%

-0.0%

0.0%

The Cardinals used five pitchers in a 6-2 loss. Somewhere Tony La Russa is sitting on a couch and thinking, "Rookie."
7

87

63

80.3

83.2

84.3

.558

.538

38.0%

61.9%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.2%

Fun with arbitrary endpoints and cherry-picking: The Pirates have outscored their opponents in only three of the season's six months.
8

86

64

81.4

85.9

83.9

.562

.542

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Why did Nick Punto sprint full speed and dive face first into first base on a groundball single into center field? Science!
9

88

62

86.3

85.7

83.5

.573

.592

99.5%

0.5%

100.0%

-0.0%

1.2%

How badly has Josh Reddick's season gone? One of his two highlights on his MLB.com page is a great running catch by Rangers outfielder Craig Gentry.
10

81

68

81.3

80.5

79.7

.541

.561

0.5%

53.3%

53.9%

-6.3%

-37.2%

We're reaching the point where the Rangers may want to pinch-manage for Ron Washington.
11

81

69

80.6

78.5

79.3

.532

.552

0.3%

45.8%

46.1%

-8.3%

18.8%

Yeah, the Indians missed a chance to catch the Rangers, but they'll get another shot tomorrow. It's the Rangers after all.
12

79

70

79.3

77.3

78.1

.526

.546

0.0%

5.9%

5.9%

0.3%

-6.7%

Neither Chris Davis nor Adam Jones has a sacrifice bunt this year. I'm so disappointed.
13

79

70

76.9

78.5

76.8

.522

.502

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

-1.2%

0.7%

The Nationals have won 11 of 14 games. It's almost like they've been procrastinating all season long.
14

73

77

75.5

76.9

75.5

.502

.522

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mike Trout Is Swear Swear Swear Amazing facts: In 2010 Mike Trout hit .306/.388/.434. In High-A.
15

79

71

79.8

73.2

74.5

.511

.531

0.0%

7.9%

7.9%

3.6%

7.0%

Before last night's game, the Royals were 9-5 in September despite an even run differential. Now they're plus six. Thanks, Scott Kazmir! Anyone else from 2007 want to get on the mound, please feel free!
16

69

81

68.6

73.0

73.9

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Giants have grounded into 122 double plays, or 244 plays.
17

76

73

75.2

73.1

73.0

.499

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

If you convert 'D-backs' to roman numerals, it reads, '500-300 5 6 151 70'. /takes bite of mashed potatoes This means something.
18

66

83

67.9

71.0

72.8

.466

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez have 19 triples between them, more than eight teams, and as many as five more.
19

63

87

68.5

70.9

71.2

.456

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Buy the new book by Edwin Jackson, Finishing a Bad Season Badly in 14 Words: pitch badly, get taken out early, and get into an argument with your manager. (Now you owe the full $19.95.)
20

68

81

69.7

66.7

68.7

.458

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

What will the Blue Jays do this offseason? If you said, "lose fewer games" you win!
21

69

82

72.4

71.2

68.0

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In 2000 Todd Helton hit .372/.463/.698. It was as close as he'd ever come to the ever elusive .400/.500/.Are You Kidding Me??? slash line.
22

79

71

73.3

66.0

67.9

.477

.497

0.0%

4.4%

4.4%

-0.1%

-0.3%

'I thought it was in poor taste. His greatness should have been acknowledged and, frankly, I'm upset about it." -- Joe Girardi on Justin Timberlake losing the 'Best Pop Video' award to Selena Gomez at the Video Music Awards
23

69

80

64.7

65.3

65.7

.444

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Last season's Padres team ERA: 4.01. This year: 4.06. Last season's Padres scored 4.02 runs per game. This season's Padres score 3.82. Last year they finished 18 games out of first. This season they're 16 games out. Can't say they aren't consistent.
24

66

84

61.2

66.3

65.7

.432

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Felix Hernandez should be back soon, just in time to save the Mariners from good draft position.
25

67

82

67.5

65.3

64.8

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mets face Yusmeiro Petit today so if you've never seen a no-hitter before, get your tickets now!
26

70

80

62.1

62.8

64.7

.433

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yeah, Cliff Lee threw eight innings of two-run ball, and went 3-for-4 at the plate, but it was against the Marlins. Let's see him do it against a real Triple-A team.
27

64

85

60.4

64.2

64.5

.425

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giving up seven runs to the White Sox might not be considered a new low had it not all occurred in one inning and had that inning not been the first inning.
28

59

91

63.0

61.9

62.0

.410

.429

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The White Sox scored seven runs in the first inning and did it A) without an extra-base hit (generally weird), and B) with three walks (Chicago is 28th in walks).
29

55

95

59.3

55.3

56.3

.376

.358

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a secret fish sculpture a hundred feet below the earth's surface, Jeffrey Loria is genetically engineering the perfect prospect and the perfect general manager with which to trade him.
30

51

99

55.5

49.5

51.9

.347

.365

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Doesn't seem that long ago when Erik Bedard was really good. He was traded for Adam Jones and Chris Tillman in... February, 2008? Okay, I take it back. It was a while ago.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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