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Prospectus Hit List for September 16



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 13 Hit List for September 17
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Absolutely loaded with Fun Facts. Or, if you print it out and send it to your doctor's office, Fun Fax!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

81

68

80.8

78.5

79.2

.536

.556

0.9%

53.6%

54.4%

16.8%

33.9%

With their 81st win, the Indians are officially not a losing team! Credit to Pedro Cerano and Willy Mays Hayes, of course, but the unsung hero so far has been closer Ricky Vaughn.
2

81

67

78.5

87.2

87.6

.565

.584

0.0%

71.1%

71.1%

-7.5%

3.2%

Things I wouldn't have believed before the season had you showed up in a spaceship to tell me: David Price has a below-average strikeout rate.
3

79

70

76.9

78.5

76.7

.522

.502

0.0%

3.1%

3.1%

1.6%

2.7%

Bryce Harper is hitting .280/.381/.504 and will be 21 in October so now you can sip your coffee and wonder what the heck you’re doing with your life.
4

78

71

78.7

72.2

73.6

.507

.527

0.0%

4.3%

4.3%

-0.4%

2.5%

If you had told someone at the beginning of the year that the Royals would be fourth in the Wild Card standings with a 3 percent chance to win it, they’d probably have believed you.
5

88

61

87.0

86.1

84.1

.579

.598

99.4%

0.6%

100.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Hey A's fans, who is the hottest team in baseball?? Probably the Marlins. Or maybe the Diamondbacks. Just not really that hot in Oakland, comparatively anyway.
6

87

62

80.0

83.4

84.5

.562

.542

39.9%

60.1%

100.0%

0.1%

0.3%

The Pirates have been hit by 79 pitches, the most in the majors because jerks.
7

86

63

92.0

98.8

98.1

.629

.648

99.1%

0.7%

99.9%

0.1%

0.2%

Max Scherzer wasn't able to win his 20th in his fourth try. So, Max, if you're going to be like that, we'll just elect someone else, said the Cy Young voters collectively.
8

92

59

93.8

93.1

92.2

.615

.633

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The best thing about the beards is they aren’t sideburns because Luke Perry is dead, man. Long live Luke Perry.
9

87

62

91.5

85.0

84.7

.584

.565

53.8%

46.1%

99.9%

0.2%

0.0%

The Cardinals have been caught stealing 19 times, the fewest of any National League team. And if you only count getting caught stealing bases, it's even fewer.
10

69

80

60.5

61.5

63.6

.427

.408

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

As a team the Phillies have the fewest saves in baseball. Don't tell Jonathan Papelbon!
11

67

82

67.5

65.3

64.8

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I know there will be a time four months from now when I’d kill to see the Mets and Marlins play a 12-inning game, but that time is most certainly not now.
12

68

80

64.1

64.2

64.4

.440

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mark Kotsay announced he will retire after the season ends, meaning this may be the last “Can you believe Mark Kotsay is still playing?” Hit List comment you ever read. So, say it with me: can you believe Mark Kotsay is still playing? Ah, so sad.
13

66

83

61.0

65.8

65.2

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There is a universe somewhere outside ours, scientists tell us, where Dustin Ackley has a .700 OPS. One day, we hope to reach that universe. One day...
14

69

81

68.6

73.0

73.9

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Hunter Pence is to hitting what Baryshnikov is to ballet if he was really awkward.
15

68

81

69.7

66.7

68.7

.458

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Do you think when they send Ryan Goins back down the manager will say, "Hey, Ryan, we're Goins to send you back down."
16

72

77

73.9

75.6

74.2

.496

.516

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Andrew Romine made an amazing over-the-shoulder diving catch that was only slightly damaged by the Angels’ announcer immediately referring to him as “Romey.”
17

63

86

68.5

70.9

71.2

.459

.439

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starlin Castro has a .280 on-base percentage so batting him leadoff is like asking for the season to end more quickly.
18

58

91

61.3

60.4

60.7

.403

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Sale gave up six runs in 5 2/3 innings which just goes to show even numbers get things wrong every now and again.
19

86

63

81.0

85.1

83.1

.562

.543

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In July and August the Dodgers went 42-12. In September they're 6-8. This is what happens when you don't run out routine groundballs.
20

55

94

59.9

55.6

56.5

.381

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins have 90 homers, fewest of any team. Giancarlo Stanton has 22. Miami’s leader in plate appearances, Adeiny Hechavarria, has three.
21

64

84

61.0

64.6

64.8

.430

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins started someone named “Pedro Hernandez.” Come on, Livan. We know it’s you.
22

65

83

66.8

69.9

71.9

.462

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Should 64-83 teams celebrate close wins? Yes duh.
23

51

98

55.6

49.4

51.8

.349

.367

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros started a pitcher named Clemens and sent in a reliever named Chapman, but no and no.
24

68

82

71.5

70.2

67.0

.461

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Todd Helton has announced he will also retire after the season ends. I wonder what the Twins will give him?
25

89

60

89.8

88.5

84.9

.591

.571

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Upton hit two home runs in May, one in June, one in July, and one in September so far.
26

75

73

74.5

72.8

72.5

.498

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Since Aaron Hill was traded to the NL three years ago, he has the league's 12th-best OPS+.
27

79

71

73.3

66.0

67.9

.477

.497

0.0%

4.5%

4.5%

-2.4%

-2.4%

Last night was Mariano Rivera’s last REGULAR SEASON appearance at Fenway Park, meaning he’ll probably come back for an old timers game or something some time.
28

84

66

86.1

87.8

88.2

.577

.557

6.3%

90.7%

97.0%

-1.9%

-2.8%

Has Shin-Soo Choo really reached base safely in 129 of the 144 games he’s played in? No. He’s reached base safely in 130 games.
29

79

70

79.3

77.3

78.0

.526

.546

0.0%

5.6%

5.6%

2.6%

-4.9%

If Chris Davis homers in his next 50 at-bats, he'll be the first person to blow the heck out of everyone's minds.
30

81

67

81.2

80.6

80.0

.545

.565

0.6%

59.5%

60.2%

-9.2%

-33.6%

At the start of September the Rangers had a one-game lead in the American League West. They’re now 6 ˝ games behind Oakland. That’s the magic of going 2-11.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
fgbaloh

So, even if the Pirates lose 6 in a row, they should stay at 100%? Once you get to 100% you should never be able to become less. By definition. Correct?

Frank

Sep 16, 2013 07:58 AM
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0

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newsense

It's rounded to 100.0% so it could be 99.96% or something.

Sep 16, 2013 09:24 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
JosephGrouch

Rounding is stupid.

Sep 16, 2013 16:18 PM
up_image

-1

down_image
 
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