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Prospectus Hit List for September 13



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 12 Hit List for September 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Seven a.m., waking up in the morning, Gotta be fresh, gotta go Hit List

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

59

90.9

90.1

89.5

.607

.626

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

The secret to September success? The Boston clubhouse is fully stocked with takeout grilled chicken and herbal tea.
2

84

62

90.1

96.9

96.2

.629

.647

99.6%

0.3%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.1%

Victor Martinez's batting average after May: .228. His average now: .297. Thanks to all who donated to his Vicstarter.
3

85

61

89.1

83.1

82.9

.582

.563

50.3%

49.6%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.5%

Which woodland critter will be their rally animal this postseason? They've already used a squirrel and a tortoise. May I humbly suggest the capybara. It's weird looking, but furry and could also play shortstop for them.
4

88

58

88.7

87.2

83.7

.595

.576

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"Wait, is that Freddy Garcia pitching for the Braves?" Braves fans, some Braves players, and possibly even the Braves general manager
5

85

61

84.8

84.0

81.9

.575

.594

84.7%

15.1%

99.9%

0.1%

5.0%

Yesterday they were 5-for-7 with RISP. One of the outs still scored a run. Stats are weird.
6

83

64

84.7

86.2

86.6

.579

.560

12.3%

85.8%

98.1%

-0.4%

0.2%

Rather fitting that Billy Hamilton keeps bumming rides off his teammates.
7

86

60

81.8

84.8

82.8

.574

.555

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Nothing can bring this team down! That is, until MLB finds out their major league roster is like 71 players.
8

81

64

80.3

79.7

78.8

.551

.571

15.3%

70.7%

86.0%

-2.7%

-8.8%

The Rangers may also break a Pirate-like streak: they may score fewer than 4.5 runs per game for the first time since 1992. The reverse curse could be reversed!
9

85

61

78.3

81.4

82.6

.561

.541

37.4%

62.5%

99.9%

0.1%

-0.1%

Once they finally clinch a playoff spot, it will be interesting to see what brand of grog they spray themselves with in celebration.
10

78

68

77.7

75.6

76.8

.527

.547

0.4%

22.0%

22.4%

2.8%

6.3%

Ryan Raburn's career splits in US Cellular Field: .315/.369/.553. He just hates phones so much.
11

77

69

77.5

71.1

72.0

.510

.530

0.0%

4.6%

4.6%

-1.1%

3.5%

Hey, funny story. The Royals are on pace for their seventh-worst team OPS in franchise history (.697). But onto the funny story: I saw this horse the other day drinking water through a straw!
12

77

69

77.5

75.6

76.5

.525

.545

0.0%

3.8%

3.8%

-5.1%

-5.2%

Here's a list of players with 100+ PAs and a 1.000+ OPS: Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Trout and Danny Valencia.
13

79

66

76.1

84.8

85.5

.561

.581

0.0%

66.7%

66.7%

3.9%

-7.6%

Evan Longoria hit a triple, which requires so many things to go right, specifically all three outfielders getting caught in separate bear traps.
14

77

69

73.9

76.0

74.5

.516

.496

0.0%

2.1%

2.1%

0.4%

0.1%

Well, ya picked a heck of a time for your first six-game losing streak. Admittedly, better now than Christmas.
15

79

68

73.5

66.2

67.7

.487

.507

0.0%

16.7%

16.7%

2.1%

6.6%

Derek Jeter should challenge the decision to be put on the disabled list and play during the appeal injured.
16

70

76

72.1

73.9

72.9

.495

.515

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Colin Cowgill and Erick Aybar batting 1-2 is a good strategy because it perfectly sets up the two-out Mike Trout-in-scoring-position situation.
17

73

72

71.8

69.8

69.8

.490

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.7%

Ripped from the headlines: Martin Prado has already shattered the franchise record for GIDPs in a season with 28. Orlando Hudson had 21 in 2003.
18

67

80

71.2

70.1

66.9

.468

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies' ballpark is not located on Rockie Road, because people would keep eating the street, then how would you get there?
19

67

79

68.5

65.4

67.3

.459

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brett Lawrie's 0-for-5 gave him a WPA of -.460, so it's not fair to say the loss was all his fault. Not even half his fault. Just 46 percent his fault.
20

62

84

67.2

69.8

69.9

.460

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs used four pitchers in the eighth inning, probably not at the same time, which is a shame.
21

64

81

65.4

63.6

63.4

.442

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Six innings, four hits (three homers), three runs, one walk, 10 strikeouts. At this point, Aaron Harang is pitching as a performance artist.
22

63

82

65.2

68.5

70.3

.460

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They're spoiling the NL Central the only way brewers know how: doing everything at room temperature.
23

66

81

65.0

70.4

71.0

.463

.443

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tim Lincecum will have a difficult decision this offseason: some money or more money.
24

66

79

62.2

62.4

62.6

.436

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Good thing Brad Boxberger was good at pitching, otherwise he'd have to go back to work with his dad at the local Boxberger drive-in down on the corner.
25

58

88

61.5

60.3

60.5

.411

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Charlie Leesman's pitching line: seven seven batters faced, seven runs allowed, zero outs recorded, jumping his ERA from 1.59 to 7.15.
26

63

82

60.4

63.9

63.9

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Let's play a game. Find Scott Diamond, and elbow him in the side saying "Diamond in the rough, huh?" Keep doing this. You get 50 points for every minute he does not call the police.
27

68

78

60.4

60.9

62.7

.431

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Everyone in the starting lineup scored a run yesterday, except for Roy Halladay, who walked with the bases loaded, which is twice as neat and made everybody else totes jelly.
28

65

81

60.3

64.8

63.9

.435

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Felix Hernandez doesn't have a complete game this year. Aaron Harang had two shutouts for them. They released the wrong pitcher IMHO.
29

54

91

58.1

53.6

54.7

.380

.361

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Hopefully everybody with the Marlins learned a valuable lesson: never stare directly at a home run. It's kind of like the afternoon sun, a man's toupee, or the other person in the elevator.
30

50

96

54.4

48.1

50.6

.348

.366

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A team made entirely of Jose Altuves and Brett Oberholtzers might actually be competitive, certainly adorable but perhaps raise ethical questions in the scientific community.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
HalfStreet

C'mon, now, the Nats are on a winning streak, not a losing streak. There have been indignities aplenty this year. We should get to enjoy the run of success, even if it is now totally futile.

Sep 13, 2013 08:47 AM
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+2

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ceadie

Injury appeals could take months. Jeter could have pulled a quad and had a non displaced fracture of the pinky by decision time.

Sep 14, 2013 08:11 AM
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+1

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