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Prospectus Hit List for August 20



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for August 19 Hit List for August 21
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Samardzija? What's Samardzija?

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

73

51

78.1

84.0

83.0

.641

.659

97.9%

1.3%

99.1%

-0.6%

-0.1%

Just another reminder that Rick Porcello, who has pitched over 800 innings over five seasons, is the third youngest player on the Tigers roster.
2

76

48

76.9

77.3

74.4

.614

.595

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"B.J. Upton or Jordan Schafer?" asks a team who cannot possibly have a ridiculous lead in a baseball division.
3

72

52

77.2

73.9

72.6

.596

.577

34.0%

63.9%

98.0%

1.2%

1.2%

Here are synopses of Michael Wacha's two wins: a six-inning, two-run start and a one-inning, three-run relief apperance.
4

74

53

74.2

73.5

72.5

.579

.599

55.3%

37.0%

92.3%

1.8%

-2.0%

Xander Bogaerts is the first person in the major leagues whose first name begins with "X" and isn't Xavier. Put his birth certificate into Cooperstown.
5

71

52

67.5

72.9

72.9

.578

.597

41.3%

49.3%

90.6%

1.5%

7.3%

Jeremy Hellickson has allowed 80 runs this year, all of them earned. Be sure to tip your shortstops.
6

71

54

72.6

72.4

72.7

.577

.558

26.5%

69.1%

95.6%

1.5%

2.0%

Here are a list of Reds players with triples this month: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips. Circle the parts of this paragraph that seem wrong.
7

73

51

67.3

68.9

70.2

.563

.543

39.5%

59.4%

98.9%

1.4%

-0.0%

Pedro Alvarez leads the National League in home runs. The rest of the league has the mumps.
8

72

52

67.6

70.2

68.5

.561

.541

98.4%

0.5%

98.8%

-0.3%

-0.1%

Yasiel Puig didn't run into a single out yesterday, which is progress. He didn't get on base either, but we all have our own little ways.
9

72

53

70.0

69.5

68.7

.560

.580

63.8%

26.6%

90.4%

1.4%

-0.6%

What do you think Matt Garza did during the 11-run inning to stay loose? I am guessing he left the dugout to go pitch an entire National League game.
10

71

53

69.8

68.7

66.2

.556

.575

36.2%

44.3%

80.5%

1.8%

0.4%

It seems like they just keep finding ways to achieve walkoff victories at home. For some reason, they haven't done it on the road yet.
11

67

57

66.4

64.3

64.7

.529

.549

3.0%

14.4%

17.4%

-6.0%

-9.5%

Danny Valencia was greated with a chorus of boos as he stepped to the plate, his first since being cleared of Biogenesis connections. I should mention that Danny Valencia is haunted by ghosts.
12

67

58

66.0

65.2

66.2

.529

.548

1.9%

19.4%

21.3%

1.2%

7.4%

It's going to take more than Jason Giambi opposite-field doubles to stay in the Wild Card race. But please continue those as well.
13

64

59

63.0

60.5

61.0

.505

.485

1.6%

6.4%

8.1%

-3.1%

-0.7%

You have to walk before you run, but the D'backs didn't walk for the eighth time this season and they still lost so I forget the moral of this story.
14

64

59

64.4

57.8

58.9

.498

.518

0.2%

3.3%

3.5%

-0.5%

-5.0%

They've lost five of their last seven games immediately after losing five of their previous 24 games. They're back!
15

64

59

60.7

54.6

56.0

.478

.498

0.4%

4.5%

4.8%

-0.6%

2.2%

Ichiro hitting .272 in late August nearly qualifies as a global crisis.
16

58

68

61.2

61.6

59.0

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Jeff Manship has a higher ERA (7.80) than anyone in their rotation's K/9.
17

60

64

58.3

58.6

58.9

.475

.455

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

-0.7%

-2.0%

If claiming David DeJesus off waivers was a mistake, then they can correct this by flipping him for Adam Rosales or Casper Wells.
18

55

69

58.1

60.9

59.4

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

Albert Pujols has several months for returning to the best shape of his life, e.g., invent time travel.
19

54

70

57.6

60.5

61.1

.470

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

And then the bartender says, "I don't know, what's Samardzija with you?"
20

57

66

58.7

57.8

57.0

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.3%

You know one of the baseball god's has OCD when all 14 hits yesterday were split evenly amongst seven different Mets.
21

57

67

58.2

55.5

58.1

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

They optioned Thad Weber to Triple-A yesterday then plan to recall him for today's doubleheader, but only because they couldn't claim him off waivers and waive him again. Or could they?
22

54

71

56.1

58.8

59.8

.457

.438

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The good news is Aramis Ramirez still makes $16 million next year. Good news for Aramis Ramirez, that is.
23

55

69

53.9

57.6

58.3

.453

.434

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

The Giants lineup saw 125 pitches yesterday and Buster Posey saw 23 of them.
24

57

67

52.7

56.9

56.6

.450

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

Despite everything, the Mariners refuse to go away. They're not exactly playing well, but there they are, showing up on time each game.
25

54

69

53.6

56.0

55.8

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yesterday just made it official, but in spirit the entire season has felt like a long drawn out sweep by the Mets.
26

56

69

53.9

55.2

55.5

.441

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Denorfia's three-base error on a ground ball to him in right field is a good argument for even bigger mitts.
27

49

74

53.4

53.6

53.3

.426

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It was an off day yesterday, giving Robin Ventura plenty of time to stare at himself in the mirror, tap his left arm, then his right arm, then smile.
28

55

69

50.7

50.1

52.2

.420

.400

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The save is a meaningless stat until you notice the Phillies recorded their first save since July 11.
29

48

75

49.7

45.3

46.0

.384

.365

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Fernandez has nearly one-third (9 of 28) of the rotation's victories.
30

41

83

43.4

38.6

41.0

.331

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jake Elmore has now played every position for Houston this year except for center field.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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