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Prospectus Hit List for August 15



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 14 Hit List for August 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

This Hit List can open your eyes, take you wonder by wonder Over, sideways and under on a Magic Castle ride

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

59

60

57.2

56.4

56.5

.481

.461

0.0%

2.9%

3.0%

0.6%

2.0%

Thing you didn’t know: Jayson Werth is having a really good season, hitting .329/.401/.529. Things you did know: the Nationals aren’t anyway.
2

55

65

56.0

53.8

55.9

.460

.480

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Esmil Rogers faced Boston last night, and before that, on June 29th. In those two starts he threw 12 innings and gave up one run. In the seven games in between, Rogers threw 36 innings and gave up 36 runs.
3

70

51

65.9

66.6

66.1

.555

.575

73.3%

19.4%

92.7%

3.3%

12.6%

Elvis Andrus has had a pretty tough season at the plate. He’s hitting .255 this year, but, over the last 10 games, he’s hitting .256. Progress!
4

67

51

64.4

70.4

70.2

.576

.596

25.5%

58.5%

84.0%

4.8%

-6.6%

Two more hits for James Loney. He's pricing himself out of Tampa, and you know what that means... Eric Hinske career resurrection, baby!
5

68

51

74.1

71.5

70.1

.596

.577

23.1%

71.9%

95.0%

-2.0%

-3.6%

The Cardinals still have a better pythagorean record, so eat that, Pittsburghers!
6

52

67

51.4

55.2

56.2

.451

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

Tim Lincecum started, threw six innings, and was relieved by Barry Zito: scenes you won’t see in San Francisco next season.
7

55

64

51.9

55.2

54.6

.455

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Justin Smoak is hoping to hit just enough to screw up the Mariners at first base next year too.
8

54

66

51.5

52.2

52.5

.438

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

According to ESPN’s park factors, Petco Park is no longer the most run-suppressing ballpark. Now it’s the second-most run suppressing ballpark! Yay! [balloons drop from the ceiling]
9

71

48

65.7

66.5

68.0

.570

.550

52.0%

46.7%

98.7%

0.0%

-0.9%

Pedro Alvarez has 29 homers and a .296 on-base percentage.
10

53

67

49.6

48.9

50.9

.422

.402

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

The Phillies have officially released Delmon Young which means the winner in the Predict the Day Delmon Young Gets Released By the Phillies contest is... Ruben Amaro, Jr.!
11

67

52

66.6

66.2

63.8

.554

.574

26.7%

45.9%

72.6%

-6.3%

0.2%

By Defensive Efficiency, the A’s are the best defensive team in baseball. Statistically speaking, they turn everything into outs, grounders, line drives, cats, doorknobs, cars, and their spouses.
12

54

64

55.8

55.4

54.9

.466

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

You can’t expect the Mets to just waltz into the Magic Castle and win a baseball game. No, no, that’d be just silly.
13

62

57

58.6

52.1

53.3

.475

.495

0.5%

5.8%

6.3%

1.3%

4.8%

Alfonso Soriano is probably one of those guys who comes in early, bangs out a day's worth of work in an hour and then spends the next seven hours preventing everyone else in the office from getting anything done.
14

53

65

52.5

54.0

53.9

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer went 5-for-7 and the Twins lost because no player is bigger than the game. I hope that Joe Mauer has learned his lesson.
15

52

68

54.6

56.7

57.4

.460

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Something to build on: the Brewers are 11-24 in games started by lefties, so against normal human starters the Brewers are almost an okay team!
16

46

73

47.5

43.3

44.2

.380

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Marlins win! Alright! Just 27 more like that and they'll be at .500!
17

70

50

65.1

67.7

66.4

.561

.541

98.4%

0.5%

98.9%

-0.1%

3.4%

Vin Scully called Yasiel Puig "the Magic Horse” and Dodger Stadium “the Magic Castle.” Just more proof that Vin Scully is awesome, because if John Sterling said that we'd all throw up.
18

62

56

62.2

55.6

56.0

.500

.520

0.4%

4.9%

5.3%

-2.3%

1.5%

First bit of weird information: The Royals just lost their first series since the All-Star break. Second bit of weird information: they lost it to the Marlins.
19

39

80

41.6

36.5

38.8

.328

.345

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Houston wins today they'll have their second series sweep of the season.
20

70

49

75.2

81.0

80.1

.643

.661

97.7%

1.3%

99.0%

-0.3%

-0.2%

Miguel Cabrera homering is like OJ getting pushed down the stairs at Angel Stadium in a wheelchair at the end of Naked Gun. Every time you watch you know it’s coming and every time it’s just as great as before.
21

57

65

59.9

60.1

57.5

.481

.461

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.0%

-0.1%

Reason 4,812 in favor of the DH: Rockies pitcher Jorge de la Rosa’s slash line of .049/.093.049. You could hit .049/.093/.049 if you went to the plate batless and swung with your face.
22

65

56

63.5

62.0

62.9

.524

.544

1.9%

21.9%

23.8%

3.8%

-7.4%

Jason Giambi remembers when hitting a home run meant you had to walk uphill for six miles to find first base, and maybe the base wouldn’t even be there, and maybe there would be bears along the baseline so you’d better bring some steak, and hey where are you going??
23

68

52

69.2

69.4

69.7

.576

.556

24.9%

69.9%

94.8%

0.5%

2.6%

Bronson Arroyo threw seven shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none. Somewhere, while dipping chip after chip into a tub of “reel cheez” sauce, Wily Mo Pena watched quietly.
24

52

68

54.7

57.7

58.3

.464

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

On the short list for most disconcerting thing in a very disconcerting season: Anthony Rizzo’s .232/.323/.431 slash line.
25

46

73

50.5

51.6

51.5

.419

.439

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How bad are the White Sox? Jeff Keppinger, a man who is now hitting .242/.268/.287 and batting not last, went 2-for-4. Chicago lost anyway.
26

72

50

71.6

70.5

69.6

.581

.601

70.9%

24.8%

95.7%

-0.3%

-0.9%

Jon Lester used to be a strikeout pitcher. Now? Rookie Brandon Workman struck out more hitters (4) in three innings of work than Lester did in 6 1/3.
27

65

55

63.9

61.3

61.8

.525

.545

3.1%

17.4%

20.5%

-3.9%

-4.1%

Baseball's leader in Saves? Jim Johnson! Baseball's leader in Blown Saves? Jim Johnson! Baseball's leader in leading baseball in things: Jim Johnson!
28

74

47

75.3

76.3

73.5

.618

.599

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Evan Gattis since June 1: .218 /.273/.337. This message brought to you by the Committee to re-sign Brian McCann.
29

62

57

60.4

58.2

58.4

.502

.482

1.6%

8.0%

9.6%

1.1%

-3.1%

In their three-game series, which the Diamondbacks swept with three one-run wins, Arizona outscored Baltimore 12-2 after the sixth inning.
30

53

66

56.2

59.6

58.5

.477

.497

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Facing the team with the third-fewest runs scored per game in the American League, Jered Weaver’s ERA went 2.87 to 3.49. Analysis: whoops!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
Manprin

It's amazing that the A's lead in Defense Efficiency with Jed Lowrie playing shortstop.

Aug 15, 2013 10:20 AM
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jmanig78

The A's have been arguably the team that pays the most attention to defensive metrics for years now. Part of the reason why they tend not to have classic corner guys is that they expect they corner guys to be anle to play defense.

Aug 15, 2013 18:01 PM
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jmanig78

*able, and I hate that we cannot edit comments.

Aug 15, 2013 18:02 PM
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