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Prospectus Hit List for July 29



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for July 26 Hit List for July 30
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Royals comment worth a year's subscription all by itself.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

59

47

62.4

63.0

63.3

.584

.565

17.3%

74.1%

91.4%

-1.7%

3.8%

Their pitchers have held teams to five runs or less in each of their last 14 games and are just 8-6 in that stretch. Consider asking Joey Votto if he has a brother.
2

61

42

57.4

56.9

58.0

.566

.547

28.3%

67.9%

96.2%

-0.3%

2.5%

Don't worry. Losing a series to the Marlins happens to lots of guys.
3

62

43

60.2

64.7

64.6

.599

.618

44.4%

48.6%

93.0%

-0.7%

8.2%

While they've lost just eight of their last 34 games, four of those losses were charged to Roberto Hernandez.
4

62

40

65.4

63.2

61.3

.617

.598

54.4%

44.2%

98.5%

-0.3%

0.2%

Trips to Atlanta are much worse for the Cardinals when the infield fly rule can't bail them out.
5

63

43

62.3

61.3

61.4

.585

.604

50.8%

41.5%

92.3%

2.6%

0.8%

David Ortiz didn't intentionally destroy a phone. He didn't even know landline phones were still around. He thought he was destroying a hotel iron.
6

56

48

56.7

55.6

56.3

.540

.560

11.4%

28.3%

39.6%

6.0%

9.6%

Get it right, Cleveland: it's Ryan Raburn, not Ryan Rayburn and DEFINITELY not Ryan R. Braun.
7

58

48

56.1

54.6

55.4

.528

.548

4.2%

27.9%

32.0%

-7.1%

-9.3%

Manny Machado's double-less streak is now at 82 plate appearances. One triple and three homers, but zero doubles.
8

56

49

53.4

54.7

54.9

.521

.541

18.5%

23.8%

42.3%

-5.3%

-16.2%

Matt Garza is hitting a crisp .222 this season, and for some reason he is not DHing for them.
9

55

50

51.6

47.1

48.4

.481

.501

0.7%

10.5%

11.2%

0.9%

-5.9%

In honor of Alfonso Soriano's walk-off hit, I downloaded a ton of songs from Napster.
10

62

43

59.9

59.1

57.2

.567

.587

81.0%

9.4%

90.4%

2.2%

8.0%

In honor of his defense and his glasses, it's high time we start calling Eric Sogard The Opti-Grab.
11

59

45

64.0

69.2

68.4

.626

.645

88.3%

6.9%

95.2%

1.9%

7.1%

That was probably the first time in history Miguel Cabrera was ejected during a bases-loaded plate appearance, then the team went on to score 11 more runs.
12

54

51

53.9

51.8

51.3

.503

.483

13.1%

4.9%

18.0%

-7.1%

-14.0%

After starting the season 9-0, Patrick Corbin has now picked up two losses this month, three if you count the All-Star Game, and we were told it counts so yes three.
13

52

54

50.3

49.2

49.0

.473

.453

2.8%

4.0%

6.8%

2.1%

-5.7%

2012: "Should the team limit Stephen Strasburg's innings?" 2013: "Did Drew Storen deserve to go to Triple-A?" These Nats discussion points really took a lame turn.
14

56

48

53.0

56.1

54.5

.528

.508

84.4%

1.8%

86.2%

6.8%

22.5%

I speak for all lovers of spectacle when saying Yasiel Puig should've cartwheeled around the bases during his walkoff home run.
15

51

51

50.9

44.7

45.7

.471

.491

0.3%

1.6%

1.9%

0.1%

1.1%

In Kansas City, a pitcher who doesn't live up to expectations is known as an "underhochevar."
16

51

55

53.5

53.9

51.3

.495

.475

1.9%

1.0%

2.9%

1.3%

-4.7%

Just as a reminder, they've had three straight months with a losing record and are just six games out of first place.
17

48

55

49.9

53.0

51.4

.491

.511

0.3%

0.8%

1.1%

-1.0%

-3.0%

Albert Pujols' injury is a crushing blow to the Angels' playoff chances, right up there with just everything else you can think of.
18

49

56

43.9

44.5

45.6

.436

.416

0.4%

0.6%

1.0%

-0.2%

-4.8%

Giving up eight unearned runs in an inning requires a true team effort. That and gluing all the mitts shut.
19

60

45

62.0

62.5

60.5

.583

.564

96.6%

0.6%

97.2%

0.0%

6.3%

They're probably walking away with their division, but they could stand to pick up one, maybe two more pairs of brothers.
20

48

55

49.6

51.4

51.7

.487

.467

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

-0.2%

0.1%

Of course they have a better record than the team that won last year's World Series. They should consider themselves buyers at the deadline.
21

50

55

47.4

50.0

49.5

.469

.489

0.2%

0.5%

0.7%

0.3%

0.2%

The Mariners have used seven different catchers this season. Not all at once. That would really confuse the pitcher.
22

46

56

47.4

46.5

46.2

.456

.436

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.9%

Ike Davis's longest hitting streak of the year is three, back in April.
23

48

56

49.7

48.2

49.9

.471

.491

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.0%

-0.7%

Edwin Encarnacion smashed two homers in an inning, and Chan Ho Park was nowhere to be found.
24

48

58

46.9

46.1

46.1

.441

.422

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

They did it! They won consecutive games for the first time since June 20-21!
25

46

58

45.2

48.7

49.7

.456

.436

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

-0.4%

-5.1%

I'm not sure if they would have played better baseball against actual cubs. Maulings are always a threat, even with baby wildlife.
26

45

57

45.8

45.9

46.6

.449

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At long last, Miguel Sano was no longer benched in Double-A! This is what being a Twins fan has come down to in July.
27

35

69

35.4

30.2

32.5

.320

.337

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They should consider selling at the deadline, but the question is what? Perhaps either blueberry muffins or friendship bracelets.
28

40

62

43.0

45.0

44.4

.422

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

There's a decent chance they trade Jake Peavy for an actual farm. Everybody loves soybeans, even if they don't realize it.
29

43

61

44.9

48.2

48.7

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

John Axford was charged with the loss yesterday, but in fairness he was quietly having a stellar stretch since being bumped to middle relief: an 0.86 ERA in 31 innings since his previous loss on May 1.
30

40

63

40.3

37.5

37.8

.378

.359

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Okay, failing to play first base and batting cleanup for the Marlins is the SECOND worst decision Tino Martinez has made this year.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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3 comments have been left for this article.
DetroitDale

The teaser was wrong... the PIRATES comment was worth a year's subscription by itself.

Jul 29, 2013 07:12 AM
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+1

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nerck93

*slow clap for the Royals' comment* priceless.

Jul 29, 2013 07:56 AM
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terryspen

Re the Pirates comment -- Yes, the Bucs have joined this list of teams that have lost series to the Marlins in the last month: the Cardinals, Giants, Braves and Nats all beat them to it. As noted in an article elsewhere, maybe the Marlins, given their rotation, aren't the 29th team at the moment -- would you rather be them, the Phillies or the White Sox right now?

Jul 29, 2013 10:34 AM
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