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Prospectus Hit List for September 26



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 23
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

With one week left, the Hit List marches on.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

99

56

103.2

110.5

109.0

.680

.676

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Someone tell their backup catcher that this was the wrong year to have a beloved David retire from baseball.
2

92

64

96.6

100.8

100.8

.625

.630

99.8%

0.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.5%

Here's hoping Rick Porcello wins the Cy Young based solely on his win total, so we can go back in time 50 years on awards discussion and also warn everyone about the Manson family.
3

91

64

94.7

97.7

95.9

.612

.607

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tickets are going fast on the seminar held by Max Scherzer, entitled How To Actually Pitch Good After Signing A Long-Term Deal. Stephen Strasburg bought out the entire first three rows.
4

90

66

89.4

95.2

95.3

.593

.588

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

The movie about Vin Scully's life ended perfectly as the Dodgers won the division on his last game. No need to show the crushing loss to the Cubs during the credits, but the director's cut is a possibility.
5

90

65

88.3

90.3

87.6

.574

.579

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

If the Indians reach the World Series, and I mean this with all sincerity for the sake of internet memes, dear god, do not, under any circumstances, take a 3-1 lead.
6

86

69

87.6

89.9

90.2

.570

.575

0.2%

94.4%

94.6%

4.7%

31.3%

Ezequel Carrera tying the game on a bunt single is like the Eggplant Wizard tying the game by turning the pitcher into an eggplant. That is their one weapon. You had one thing to avoid.
7

81

74

83.6

86.8

86.4

.545

.540

0.0%

60.6%

60.6%

-3.6%

19.6%

The injured Matt Holliday is going to see a specialist about his thumb. They're not around much anymore, but I think they call that a hitchhiker.
8

82

74

84.3

86.4

86.1

.543

.538

0.0%

55.6%

55.6%

-12.7%

-12.6%

The Giants are last in home runs and last in strikeouts, meaning their games are the only ones left in baseball where balls actually land in play. In all others, fielders just spend the time whittling and occasionally practicing the foxtrot. But it's mostly whittling going on.
9

83

72

79.1

83.0

81.7

.527

.532

0.0%

26.4%

26.5%

-22.1%

3.9%

Francisco Rodriguez gave up five runs in a save situation on Magglio Ordoñez Appreciation Day, which was simply a scheduling error. That was supposed to be Todd Jones Appreciation Day.
10

82

73

83.0

80.6

79.7

.525

.530

0.0%

9.8%

9.8%

2.3%

-13.4%

How are the Mariners' playoff chances? Well let's just say they're celebrating the 25th anniversary of Nirvana's Nevermind instead of the anniversity of Kurt Cobain's lesser-known album, Postseason Absolute Metaphysical Certitude.
11

85

71

80.3

79.2

81.4

.522

.527

0.0%

64.3%

64.3%

14.3%

-11.5%

Over one-half of the 2016 Orioles' runs scored have been via home run. And if that doesn't bring Earl Weaver back to life, then nothing will, except by bumping the number up to 75 percent.
12

82

74

82.0

80.7

80.3

.521

.526

0.0%

4.8%

4.8%

1.1%

-8.5%

Chris Devenski has his locker protected by a lock and key, accessible only with a certain PIN. Sadly nobody has been able to crack the Devenski code.
13

83

73

82.7

82.9

82.6

.531

.526

0.0%

83.7%

83.7%

16.5%

-6.5%

If you find a Mets fan with their fingernails intact and not at all chewed off, check them for teeth.
14

92

64

79.1

76.8

76.2

.519

.524

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Gomez has hit more home runs with the Rangers than he did with the Astros, because some people are clearly motivated by the promise of a brand new stadium.
15

79

76

74.7

77.2

80.1

.502

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

-2.0%

Gary Sanchez's Rookie of the Year campaign just continues to heats up. Even though he hasn't been up the whole season, there's a convincing case tha— [someone else gets called up on the final day and hits 35 home runs] never mind!
16

77

78

75.7

76.0

75.6

.491

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.5%

[this space intentionally left blank because sometimes you just don't want to joke for obvious reasons]
17

73

83

77.7

77.5

76.3

.488

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

DJ LeMahieu is almost certainly going to be the first Rockie in history to bat over .330 while hitting fewer than 20 home runs, and I type "almost certainly" because there's an outside chance he's actually the reincarnated Tony Gwynn. More tests are needed.
18

65

90

74.0

76.4

78.9

.475

.480

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Devil Rays never won more than 70 games. The Regular Rays never won fewer than 77. Get the exorcism kit, pa.
19

77

78

76.8

73.3

72.7

.484

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Trading for Phil Coke at the end of the season is a curious move. Sure, they needed another arm, but finishing the season with a Coke means that they'll be awake all offseason.
20

74

81

73.6

72.4

73.0

.473

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Somehow this team had the best record in the American League as late as May 14th. A month later Mat Latos was released--and he is still fourth on the team in pitcher wins.
21

79

77

74.7

68.0

68.8

.465

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

It's starting to appear that the Royals, in fact, will not make the playoffs, culminating in a three-year-long "told you so" echo statement by computer processors everywhere.
22

69

87

74.9

66.3

67.9

.446

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You might wonder how the Angels got 10 runs in consecutive games? Mike Trout and Albert Pujols went a combined 22-for-48 in each game and the rest of the team was unavailable with "probably the mumps" before someone noticed.
23

70

86

71.3

68.6

68.6

.446

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Buddy, I haven't seen brewers steal this much and get away with it since Prohibition.
24

67

88

67.4

67.3

67.7

.435

.439

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With a breakout 40-homer season, Khris Davis looks like an obvious trade candidate for the A's. One can only wonder who they'll get in retu—whoops, Brett Lawrie again.
25

63

92

62.6

68.0

68.3

.422

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One more week of baseball in Turner Field, meaning one more chance to use each of the bathrooms once and flush for the cycle.
26

66

90

69.7

62.0

62.6

.417

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you're watching Padres baseball at home and have noticed some bright spots on the team, more than likely what is happening is that your television is exploding.
27

64

91

62.9

63.6

65.2

.412

.408

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chip Hale might be on his way out in Arizona, but this was to be expected, as the desert climate means that if Hale ever shows up, it doesn't last long.
28

56

100

61.8

64.1

64.9

.395

.400

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If this month's version of Byron Buxton is a sign of things to come, then Twins fans will have years to enjoy Byron Buxton having sensational Septembers while the team is eliminated from contention.
29

70

86

60.1

59.0

59.1

.398

.393

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you're still watching Phillies baseball, you're just putting off restocking your bomb shelter. That or you're trapped inside your bomb shelter, the TV is on the Phillies game and the remote is outside. If this is the case, tap twice.
30

65

90

63.7

56.5

57.0

.391

.386

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

32-year-old Hernan Iribarren spent seven years between major league stints and tripled his career hit total in a month. Which means someone oughta sign this guy in 2023.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
D1Johnson

Any idea when was the last time a team led the hit list for the entire season, or is this the first time it has occurred?

Sep 26, 2016 11:57 AM
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