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Prospectus Hit List for July 26



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for July 25 Hit List for July 29
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Hit List in the front seat, Hit List in the back seat, gotta make my mind up which seat can I take?

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

56

45

60.7

65.5

64.7

.611

.630

88.1%

4.1%

92.2%

-2.2%

2.2%

They need to do something about the weakest link in their rotation. But Justin Verlander's contract is so huge.
2

62

37

64.5

63.0

61.0

.633

.614

58.1%

41.4%

99.6%

0.3%

1.9%

Edward Mujica has a 19/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's two walks all season, and one of the walks was to a player not with a major league team right now (Eric Hinske).
3

60

42

58.3

62.5

62.3

.596

.615

41.7%

48.5%

90.1%

1.6%

16.0%

That miraculous double play by Yunel Escobar could be explained by his glove containing a much smaller Yunel Escobar with a tiny glove of his own.
4

59

44

61.3

62.3

62.9

.596

.576

19.3%

76.8%

96.1%

1.8%

12.8%

Joey Votto has more stolen bases than Brandon Phillips. Twice as many, actually.
5

61

42

60.5

59.7

59.6

.584

.604

50.5%

38.9%

89.4%

-0.6%

-1.0%

Not sure why yesterday's game was postponed due to rain, when the Red Sox could've soaked up all the standing water by dipping their beards into it.
6

57

45

59.5

59.5

57.3

.572

.552

92.8%

0.5%

93.4%

-1.6%

3.6%

Chris Johnson has eight more hits than Justin Upton, so who was that trade REALLY for?
7

59

43

57.5

57.1

55.4

.561

.581

61.8%

19.5%

81.3%

-2.0%

-2.7%

Five players in their starting lineup had averages under .230, which is a number I picked out of a hat. Imagine if I had picked .300, this line wouldn't be very interesting.
8

60

40

55.9

55.9

57.4

.573

.553

22.6%

74.1%

96.7%

-0.8%

4.1%

The bullpen has allowed four ninth-inning runs in the last two games. This is just like when man found a way to beat sharks: wait for your pitch and stay out of the water.
9

56

46

53.0

54.5

54.7

.535

.555

36.8%

25.4%

62.2%

-2.8%

-11.0%

Maybe it's time Ian Kinsler stops stealing bases and just buys them at retail price like the rest of us honest Americans.
10

53

48

51.0

53.5

51.8

.518

.498

71.6%

1.5%

73.1%

-4.1%

22.9%

Zack Greinke hit the Reds' Brandon Phillips with a pitch, a noble attempt to start a brawl but the two teams don't hate each other. Yet.
11

57

46

54.9

53.1

53.7

.531

.551

5.5%

29.7%

35.2%

-4.2%

8.4%

To say that Miguel Gonzalez's streak of eight quality starts was snapped, you must first recognize that it existed.
12

53

48

54.2

52.8

53.3

.528

.548

11.3%

13.5%

24.8%

3.1%

-7.3%

How did Mark Reynolds strike out twice yesterday? It was an off day. That's actually rather impressive.
13

48

52

49.3

51.9

50.3

.499

.519

1.1%

2.6%

3.8%

1.1%

-0.1%

It's entirely possible the Angels traded away their No. 2 international bonus slot to the Mets for prospects because they're not entirely sure what an international bonus slot is.
14

48

54

50.5

51.6

49.1

.488

.468

2.0%

0.3%

2.3%

-1.1%

-7.1%

Wilton Lopez allowed four runs on nine pitches. He must've double parked.
15

53

49

52.4

49.7

49.4

.501

.481

24.3%

2.6%

26.9%

4.4%

-13.6%

Adam Eaton's sweet mustache was nowhere to be seen in yesterday's game, although it was hugging other teammates' facial hair in the dugout.
16

45

54

48.0

48.9

49.5

.483

.463

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

-0.5%

They really shouldn't eat the $25 million left on Alfonso Soriano's contract. Grind it up and put it in the hot dogs.
17

49

53

46.2

48.6

48.4

.471

.491

0.3%

0.8%

1.1%

0.5%

0.9%

The Mariners were quick to point out their entire lineup had reached base by the third inning. Not that they're beating their chest or anything.
18

46

55

44.1

47.7

48.7

.462

.442

1.8%

0.3%

2.1%

0.0%

-4.4%

If Matt Cain pitches 10 consecutive shutouts, he can lower his ERA from 5.00 to 2.82.
19

49

53

47.6

47.0

47.0

.467

.447

4.3%

1.5%

5.8%

1.7%

-15.8%

Bryce Harper won yet another game for them, but they should really consider limiting the innings he pitches.
20

42

59

43.7

46.9

47.7

.446

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

The silver lining in Yovani Gallardo's 6.33 ERA in July is that it's perfectly divisible by three hundredths.
21

54

48

50.5

46.4

47.2

.485

.505

2.3%

16.1%

18.4%

4.8%

-4.2%

Whatever trade they make, with whichever team, it's probably for the best that they ask for a fresh pack of name tags.
22

49

53

44.5

45.4

45.9

.453

.433

1.9%

0.5%

2.4%

-0.9%

-3.9%

Erik Kratz is fourth on the team in home runs, so the season's probably going well.
23

46

55

47.7

45.3

47.5

.461

.481

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

-1.6%

Mark Buehrle throwing a two-hitter is a great way to detract from a bigger phenomenon: Rajai Davis hitting into two double plays.
24

46

57

45.4

45.3

45.1

.441

.421

0.2%

0.0%

0.3%

0.1%

-0.1%

Everth Cabrera is making base stealing look easy, but it's actually very hard and the secret is to run fast.
25

45

53

46.1

44.6

44.5

.460

.440

0.9%

0.3%

1.2%

0.4%

0.1%

Bobby Parnell recorded his 20th save, which is the moment you learned their closer is no longer Armando Benitez.
26

43

56

44.0

44.3

44.8

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

Look at a Twins lineup once in a while because it's fun to learn about new players.
27

40

59

42.3

43.9

43.1

.428

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Adam Dunn is 453 strikeouts away from breaking Reggie Jackson's career record, and we should celebrate this.
28

48

51

48.6

42.9

43.9

.463

.483

0.6%

0.6%

1.2%

0.4%

0.5%

Of course they're going to be ranked where they're at when their entire farm system has to be bred from nobility.
29

38

62

38.9

35.6

35.9

.371

.352

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They couldn't score for seven innings, then it rained for an hour and they scored five runs in the final two innings. Somebody must have looked up "baseball tips" on Wikipedia.
30

34

67

34.3

29.8

32.1

.322

.340

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Whoa, when they agreed to go to the American League, nobody said anything about trips to Canada.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
DetroitDale

The Tigers have 9 teams ahead or tied with them in wins, putting them in the very bottom of the top third of teams (and that's with an unbalanced schedule giving them more games against baseball's weakest division), but the other formulas used in the hit list consistently put them at the top of this list. Is this bad luck or underachieving?

Jul 26, 2013 08:44 AM
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