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Prospectus Hit List for July 23



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 22 Hit List for July 24
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Which team has 99 problems but Joe Mauer ain't one? Click through to find out!!!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

51

48

50.2

47.1

47.0

.493

.473

23.1%

3.0%

26.1%

-5.9%

-14.3%

The loss to the Cubs dropped Arizona out of first place. “I’ve got to have more grittiness, Bones!” “I caunt, Captain! I don’t think she can teek any moooooooooaaaaaar!”
2

48

51

46.6

45.8

45.6

.470

.450

4.4%

3.8%

8.2%

-4.3%

-13.4%

The Dan Haren experiment is continuing as well as it has all season, which is to say, it remains a total failure.
3

55

44

51.6

52.7

53.1

.536

.556

35.6%

27.5%

63.1%

4.6%

-10.1%

– Now that they have Matt Garza, Ron Washington may move Adrian Beltre further down in the lineup. Or he may use Garza as a pitcher. Time will tell!
4

52

47

48.9

45.2

45.9

.485

.505

1.4%

11.6%

12.9%

-4.1%

-9.7%

The Yankees are reportedly working to re-acquire Alfonso Soriano because you can never have enough expensive outfielders with bad on-base percentages.
5

52

47

52.4

50.9

51.2

.522

.541

12.0%

10.7%

22.7%

-7.3%

-9.4%

If Ubaldo Jimenez didn’t give up so many walks and homers he’d be a pretty good pitcher.
6

47

52

49.3

50.4

48.2

.492

.472

4.2%

0.6%

4.8%

-2.9%

-4.6%

How do you get nine hits, including three for extra bases, and only score one run? Weary traveler: the Rockies hold the answer you seek!
7

45

53

43.5

47.2

47.9

.468

.449

3.3%

0.5%

3.8%

-1.7%

-2.7%

Remember last week when Tim Lincecum was back because of his no-hitter? If you’re a Giants fan, hop into your Deloreon and go back there.
8

60

41

59.4

58.7

58.5

.586

.605

49.1%

39.5%

88.6%

-2.9%

-1.9%

The good news is Clay Buchholz doesn’t need Tommy John surgery. The bad news is Matt Moore doesn’t either.
9

49

50

44.4

45.1

45.2

.464

.444

3.0%

1.7%

4.6%

-1.2%

-1.7%

“Yes, the season is over, but we’ve got a strong team. It’s not over until well after it’s over.” – Ruben Amaro sometime this off-season probably.
10

45

53

46.4

44.2

46.6

.465

.485

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.6%

-1.5%

I won’t say you picked the Blue Jays to win anything this season if you’ll say I didn’t.
11

46

51

47.9

50.2

48.7

.497

.517

0.8%

2.0%

2.8%

-1.3%

-1.1%

How far have the Angels fallen? If one game can be any barometer, losing to the Twins should cover it.
12

58

41

56.6

55.7

54.4

.567

.587

63.5%

19.6%

83.1%

0.7%

-0.9%

Against all of Major League Baseball but Houston the A’s are 48-41. Against Houston, the A’s are 10-0. Thanks, Uncle Bud!
13

43

52

44.6

43.2

42.9

.457

.437

0.6%

0.3%

0.9%

-0.5%

-0.2%

If you see Matt Harvey in a park with a mic, run!
14

45

51

46.2

40.4

41.4

.450

.470

0.5%

0.1%

0.6%

-0.3%

-0.1%

The Royals are 45-51 but that’s okay because it takes 8-to-10 years to build a playoff team so there’s tons of time. Re-sign Jeff Francoeur!
15

44

56

43.4

43.3

43.4

.435

.416

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

-0.1%

If Evereth Cabrera would change his first name to Miguel, imagine the stats “Miguel Cabrera” could accumulate!
16

41

57

42.6

45.9

46.6

.449

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Now that Ryan Braun has been suspended for the rest of the season, you can expect the Brewers to fall into last place. What? They already have? That was fast!
17

36

61

37.1

33.8

34.4

.364

.346

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

MLB.com’s headline: “The Marlins find offense at Coors Field!” The Marlins scored three runs. On the season they’re averaging 3.19 per game. And yet, it’s hard to fault the headline so much as the Marlins.
18

39

57

41.4

42.6

41.5

.428

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

Chris Sale had 11 strikeouts to only three walks and two runs, but he lost because, either 1) he pitches for the White Sox, or 2) he lacks moral standing. Sale is now 6-9. You decide!
19

33

65

33.3

28.9

31.2

.322

.340

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Given the recent Matt Harvey video, if the entire Houston Astros team, dressed in full uniform, was standing in central Houston with microphones and video cameras, how many Houstonians do you think could correctly identify them as baseball players?
20

44

52

47.2

48.4

48.8

.491

.471

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.3%

0.0%

Now that the Cubs have obtained the entire Rangers minor league system for three months of a pitcher they weren’t going to re-sign anyway, they will allow themselves one cup – and only one! – of General Foods International Coffee French Vanilla Café. Mmm… Just like that café in Paris. Now back to work!
21

42

54

42.5

43.0

43.4

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins got 99 problems but Joe Mauer ain’t one. That’s still 99 problems though.
22

47

52

45.0

47.8

47.7

.473

.493

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.1%

0.4%

The Mariners have won seven games in a row. I know you can find that information anywhere but I’m pretty sure if you say it over and over everything will go black and white and you’ll wake up in Kansas.
23

59

37

61.6

60.2

58.3

.623

.604

52.0%

46.4%

98.4%

0.1%

0.7%

The Cardinals originally had a game scheduled for yesterday but because they have the best record in baseball, they decided not to play it. “We didn’t feel like it,” said second baseman Matt Carpenter, adjusting his monocle. “Hooray!” said Cardinals fans reflexively.
24

54

44

58.6

63.7

63.0

.611

.629

87.5%

3.7%

91.2%

3.1%

1.2%

Miguel Cabrera had to leave last night’s game with a sore hip. He was only able to homer once from the trainer’s table.
25

58

39

54.0

54.2

55.8

.572

.553

28.3%

67.3%

95.5%

1.8%

2.9%

Can the Pirates win without Jason “The Grilled Cheese Guy” Grilli closing games? On one hand, they haven’t in 20 years. On the other hand, yes.
26

56

43

58.0

58.0

55.9

.575

.556

92.0%

1.2%

93.2%

2.3%

3.4%

Craig Kimbrel has 59 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings, which, I’m guessing, is more than you, me, and our cats put together.
27

56

43

58.0

59.1

59.7

.588

.568

19.7%

72.6%

92.4%

4.8%

9.1%

Bronson Arroyo just threw a complete game shutout and now sports an ERA of 3.19. This is called “reality.”
28

59

41

57.2

61.4

61.1

.597

.616

39.1%

48.8%

87.9%

3.1%

13.8%

Over their last 20 games, the Rays have been beating up on teams with a combined sub-.400 winning percentage. Of course, the opponent’s winning percentage ceases to matter when Matt Moore makes Boston’s offense look like beer league softball after the beer.
29

57

43

54.2

52.5

53.2

.542

.562

10.4%

35.8%

46.3%

5.0%

19.4%

Manny Machado has one double in July.
30

51

47

49.1

51.5

49.9

.514

.494

69.1%

1.9%

71.0%

7.3%

20.8%

THE DODGERS ARE IN FIRST PLACE! THE DODGERS ARE IN FIRST PLACE! DOWN GOES FRAZIER! THE DODGERS ARE IN FIRST PLACE!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


8 comments have been left for this article.
kmbart

"Bones"? Since when did Montgomery Scott swap nicknames with the esteemed doctor of the Enterprise?

Jul 23, 2013 09:02 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Ah! Your right. Bones is McCoy. Who am I thinking of?

Jul 23, 2013 09:07 AM
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fgbaloh

I'm not going to say that I understand how this works, but nice to see the Pirates jump 4 spots after one win! We are desperate for anything.

Jul 23, 2013 09:29 AM
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fgbaloh

I'm not going to say that I understand how this works, but nice to see the Pirates jump 4 spots after one win! We are desperate for anything.

Jul 23, 2013 09:29 AM
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BP staff member Colin Wyers

We changed the HLF/AHLF this morning to remove the PECOTA weight for early-season results, so you should see a reordering of the Hit List that'll persist for the rest of the season.

I know there have been some other concerns about the adjusted hit list factor, in terms of the league quality adjustment. To illustrate, in interleague play in 2013, the AL has gone .532 to the NL's .468. It's a rather dramatic difference, and one that has persisted over time (you get very similar results looking at it from 2010 through 2013), so it's not a sampling issue. The AL has consistently been significantly better than the NL in head-to-head competition. We use a somewhat different method of figuring the league quality adjustment for the Hit List, that's substantially lower than what we see in the raw interleague results, actually.

Jul 23, 2013 10:47 AM
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anderson721

DOWN GOES FRAZIER! ...priceless.

Jul 23, 2013 13:48 PM
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mhmckay

Bronson Arroyo just threw a complete game shutout and now sports an ERA of 3.19. This is called “reality.”

I had the privilege of being one of ~4000 fans to witness Bronson Arroyo's perfect game pitching for AAA Pawtucket 8/11/03. That was truly reality. Coolest thing was digging up the pitching rubber and presenting it to him after the game. Guessing he still has it somewhere, even if as a doorstop.

Jul 23, 2013 16:55 PM
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LorenA19

It's about time the Pirates rose above #14!! It's not mid-May anymore and they are still playing .602 baseball.

Jul 24, 2013 00:26 AM
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