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Prospectus Hit List for July 22



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for July 15 Hit List for July 23
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

And we're back, ready for round two.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

59

37

61.6

60.2

58.3

.576

.556

57.0%

41.3%

98.3%

0.9%

0.6%

For as great as Matt Carpenter is playing, few others in the country named Matt are Carpenters.
2

57

39

53.4

53.7

55.2

.539

.519

26.2%

67.6%

93.8%

1.9%

1.2%

Clearly they need a bat, but more fittingly someone to swing it during baseball games.
3

60

40

59.2

58.7

58.4

.564

.584

59.1%

32.4%

91.5%

2.3%

1.0%

Ryan Dempster's nickname around Boston has to be "The Dempsterster."
4

55

43

57.4

57.5

55.5

.542

.522

88.8%

2.1%

90.9%

-0.0%

1.1%

Mike Minor pitched the Braves' first complete game loss since Tim Hudson in 2010. Both games were interleague.
5

53

44

57.7

62.7

62.2

.588

.607

82.6%

5.5%

88.1%

0.2%

-1.9%

No one's quite sure what's wrong with Justin Verlander, but he keeps muttering something about a "row's bud."
6

55

43

56.3

57.4

57.8

.564

.544

16.8%

70.7%

87.6%

-2.0%

4.3%

Homer Bailey leads his team in strikeouts, has thrown a no-hitter and also has the Reds' rotation's highest ERA. Mind: asploded.
7

58

41

56.4

60.1

60.0

.564

.584

31.6%

53.2%

84.9%

2.0%

10.7%

Of course they've won 17 of 19 games. Rays are physically unable to go backwards.
8

57

41

56.0

54.7

53.6

.544

.564

65.0%

17.4%

82.4%

4.1%

-1.6%

The last time Bartolo Colon had three shutouts in a season, one of them was with the Expos.
9

50

47

47.6

50.2

48.9

.556

.536

60.8%

2.9%

63.7%

2.8%

13.5%

"Matt Kemp's back!" That's much better news than when he falls to the field and everybody screams, "Matt Kemp's back!"
10

54

44

50.8

51.7

52.0

.537

.557

33.4%

25.1%

58.5%

-6.0%

-14.7%

Since the Wild Card game last year, they're 2-5 against Baltimore. All of this is connected.
11

56

43

53.0

50.9

51.7

.502

.522

7.4%

33.9%

41.3%

3.2%

14.4%

Just giving up seven runs in a three-game series is pretty good. It was also against the Rangers, which means the Orioles' starting rotation discovered cheat codes.
12

51

47

49.9

47.0

46.9

.504

.484

27.9%

4.1%

32.0%

1.2%

-8.4%

It's this new system they have: the closer on any given game is whichever arm delivery Kirk Gibson thinks finds the funniest.
13

52

46

52.0

50.6

50.9

.510

.530

16.8%

13.1%

30.0%

3.4%

-2.1%

Since June 1, Jason Kipnis has hit [arbitrarily moves beads around on abacus] pretty well.
14

52

46

48.8

45.3

45.9

.523

.542

1.8%

15.2%

17.1%

-6.1%

-5.5%

Just a thought, but they could fill those empty luxury seats with injured Yankees players.
15

48

50

46.2

45.4

45.0

.509

.489

6.9%

5.6%

12.5%

-2.1%

-9.1%

Despite scoring just 24 runs in their last 10 games, [insert encouraging proverb here].
16

48

51

50.1

50.7

48.6

.483

.463

6.6%

1.0%

7.6%

-0.3%

-1.7%

Apocalyptic reminder that the Rockies had three players start the All-Star game.
17

49

50

44.4

45.1

45.1

.466

.446

3.5%

2.3%

5.8%

-0.9%

-0.5%

Show some leadership, Michael Young, and actually execute the trade of yourself to a team that needs you.
18

45

52

44.2

48.0

48.5

.492

.472

4.4%

1.1%

5.5%

-2.2%

-1.0%

They've won 5 of their last 7 games; before that they won 5 of 24 games.
19

46

50

47.5

50.0

48.4

.528

.548

1.4%

2.7%

4.1%

-2.2%

0.2%

Sure, homerless J.B. Shuck's OPS is higher than Josh Hamilton's. But it's still only April. Also someone tampered with my calendar.
20

43

51

44.2

42.6

42.3

.467

.447

0.8%

0.6%

1.4%

0.7%

0.3%

Business idea: paint Matt Harvey's piercing dreamy eyes in the outfield so he can be with us always.
21

45

52

46.8

44.4

46.8

.491

.511

0.0%

0.8%

0.9%

-0.3%

-1.0%

On Friday they hit four home runs and lost. In the steroid era, this was commonplace.
22

45

50

46.5

41.1

42.1

.465

.485

0.5%

0.3%

0.8%

-0.4%

0.2%

Jeremy Guthrie gave up five runs in six innings and wins. James Shields allowed three runs in seven innings and loses. The moral of the story: wins/losses are a function of run support, which is a function of how much the grand wizard in the center field fountain likes you.
23

43

53

46.3

48.0

48.3

.477

.457

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.3%

Matt Garza checks the Hit List every day to see if he's finally been traded. Not yet, Matt. By the way, Matt, you should call your mother.
24

46

52

44.4

47.1

47.0

.474

.494

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

-0.1%

0.3%

Where were you when the Mariners' 23-game streak with at least one home run ended? Remember that you are under oath.
25

43

56

42.7

42.7

42.9

.446

.426

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.0%

-0.1%

The All-Star Break couldn't have come at a better time for them. But unfortunately for them it didn't last three months.
26

39

56

41.3

42.7

41.4

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

Stop hugging Alex Rios unless you really mean he's been traded to a contender. Even if you have deep affection for him, just shoot him a smile until this whole thing blows over.
27

41

56

42.4

45.6

46.2

.462

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.0%

Caleb Gindl waited until the 13th inning to hit his first career home run which won the game, giving us all three more hours of Brewers-Marlins than is federally allowed by law.
28

35

61

36.4

33.1

33.7

.390

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Three games against the Brewers, zero runs scored. But on the positive side, it wasn't four games.
29

41

54

41.9

42.3

42.7

.430

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Opposing scouts are starting to feel Glen Perkins' kidney areas and taking copious notes. The trade deadline just got super weird.
30

33

64

32.9

28.9

31.1

.357

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Allowing four runs on one hit? See, they CAN invent new ways to lose!

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
Oblarg

Whatever pre-season adjustment you guys are using for "small sample size" is pretty goofy at this point; what the heck are the Yankees and Angels doing up so high?

Jul 22, 2013 11:46 AM
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MikeJordan23

Yeah these rankings seem a bit absurd at this point

Jul 22, 2013 12:13 PM
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cchatham

Right...how can the Yankees and Angels have a lower actual, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order winning percentage than the Indians but still be placed higher on the Hit list. I thought the hit list factor was just the average of those four percentages?

Jul 22, 2013 20:39 PM
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thsaladboy

Additionally to what everyone else s saying (these standings are nonsense right now), the "adjusted" HLF just makes the thing even more ridiculous. Seven out of the top 9 teams are AL teams because of a relatively arbitrary .020 bump to the AL's HLF and .020 debit for the NL's HLF (which seems like a double dip penalty, but that's a whole other issue)? Are you saying you really think the Yankees are a better team than, say, the Braves at this point? Or the Pirates? That's just silly.

Jul 22, 2013 22:32 PM
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cchatham

The 0.040 change (0.02+ for AL and 0.02- for NL) is actually fairly well documented every season. They've found that the AL teams are clearly more dominant (possibly because of the DH position) than the NL teams based on interleague records over the course of the last however many (I believe 5) seasons.

Jul 23, 2013 18:42 PM
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BP staff member Colin Wyers

Reposted from the next day's Hit List:

We changed the HLF/AHLF this morning to remove the PECOTA weight for early-season results, so you should see a reordering of the Hit List that'll persist for the rest of the season.

I know there have been some other concerns about the adjusted hit list factor, in terms of the league quality adjustment. To illustrate, in interleague play in 2013, the AL has gone .532 to the NL's .468. It's a rather dramatic difference, and one that has persisted over time (you get very similar results looking at it from 2010 through 2013), so it's not a sampling issue. The AL has consistently been significantly better than the NL in head-to-head competition. We use a somewhat different method of figuring the league quality adjustment for the Hit List, that's substantially lower than what we see in the raw interleague results, actually.

Jul 24, 2013 07:44 AM
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