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Prospectus Hit List for July 15



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for July 12 Hit List for July 22
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The All-Star replacements Hit List.

RkTmW LW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

57

36

59.9

59.0

57.2

.577

.558

55.9%

41.8%

97.7%

1.3%

2.4%

Lance Lynn is 1-2 against the Cubs and 10-2 against non-Cubs. Imagine how scared he is of full-grown bears.
2

56

37

52.1

51.7

53.0

.540

.520

27.2%

65.4%

92.6%

-1.7%

3.9%

More surprising: Mark Melancon is an All-Star or no actually there's just one multiple choice and it's Mark Melancon is an All-Star.
3

56

39

54.3

53.3

52.1

.545

.565

57.3%

26.7%

84.0%

2.2%

4.5%

Grant Balfour was a late addition to the All-Star Game, or as he calls it, "The Oll-Stah Gime."
4

58

39

57.7

57.1

56.9

.565

.585

65.1%

25.4%

90.4%

-1.0%

3.2%

Matt Thornton has now lost games for two different colored-socked teams and is now demanding a trade to a squad that wears sandals or Crocs.
5

55

41

54.4

58.0

58.1

.562

.581

25.6%

48.5%

74.1%

4.3%

18.8%

You'd think Chris Archer would be the Rays pitcher with the "shooting arrows" celebration after a win.
6

54

41

56.3

56.0

54.1

.545

.525

86.3%

3.4%

89.7%

-2.9%

3.5%

Would we have voted for Freddie Freeman had we known he would have been injured? Some November surprise.
7

54

41

50.0

50.6

50.9

.541

.561

41.5%

31.7%

73.2%

-5.8%

-7.0%

Engel Beltre pinch ran for Adrian Beltre, literally making him No. 1 in the league in Value over Replacement Beltre.
8

53

42

54.6

56.4

56.7

.565

.545

16.9%

66.4%

83.3%

2.1%

-1.1%

Mike Leake leads the team in ERA and WHIP, and I forget what "fifth starter" means.
9

52

42

56.1

61.1

60.8

.590

.609

84.2%

5.8%

90.0%

1.1%

-3.1%

Justin Verlander's two starts against Texas this year: 2 ⅔ innings, eight runs; seven shutout innings, one hit.
10

53

43

50.7

49.1

49.8

.498

.518

5.1%

21.8%

26.9%

4.1%

0.3%

The secret to all of Chris Davis's home runs? Vitamins. Specifically Flintstones vitamins. More specifically, one gallon of them a day.
11

51

44

47.3

43.9

44.3

.523

.543

4.1%

18.5%

22.6%

-5.8%

-16.0%

The last time CC Sabathia lost to the Twins, he was teammates with Kenny Lofton.
12

51

44

50.0

48.5

49.1

.509

.529

15.4%

16.7%

32.1%

3.9%

9.4%

They had an impressive sweep of Kansas City. There was barbecue sauce everywhere.
13

50

45

48.5

45.6

45.4

.505

.485

37.7%

2.8%

40.5%

-2.7%

-16.0%

Eury De La Rosa had a 5.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in Triple-A, but he earned a callup and pitched two perfect innings in his debut. Minor leagues are hard.
14

48

47

45.9

45.1

44.6

.515

.495

9.9%

11.7%

21.6%

2.9%

-11.4%

Bryce Harper starts batting leadoff. Denard Span goes from leadoff to seventh. Nobody remembers who batted seventh. Everybody wins.
15

47

47

44.9

47.5

46.4

.550

.530

47.9%

2.3%

50.2%

-4.2%

17.2%

The only person not to start a game on the mound for the Dodgers is you. Related: what are you doing Friday night?
16

48

48

43.0

43.4

43.6

.465

.445

3.2%

3.1%

6.3%

1.7%

2.1%

Back to .500! [blasts "Eye of the Tiger" from a boombox]
17

44

49

46.1

48.2

46.6

.526

.546

1.1%

2.8%

3.9%

-1.1%

-6.4%

It's been seven years since they were swept in a three-game series to the Mariners. Mike Trout was — and I'm doing math quick in my head — three years old back then.
18

43

49

45.1

39.6

40.2

.465

.485

0.4%

0.3%

0.7%

-0.4%

-1.3%

They're 6-1 in extra inning games, which is why they want all games to last 10 innings.
19

45

49

45.8

43.6

45.6

.494

.514

0.2%

1.7%

1.8%

-1.4%

-2.1%

They're still on pace for a 113-win season, because they're not going to lose another game, you see.
20

41

50

42.6

41.3

41.1

.467

.447

0.6%

0.5%

1.1%

-0.0%

0.4%

Second half prediction: Johan Santana comes back when he learns to throw a knuckleball with his right hand.
21

46

50

48.1

49.6

47.4

.483

.463

8.4%

0.9%

9.4%

3.7%

2.6%

Tyler Chatwood went eight innings on Saturday, the third such start for a Rockies pitcher in the last 30 days. Before that, their last 8-inning start was in 2011.
22

42

51

45.4

46.0

46.5

.477

.457

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.0%

-0.1%

Second half slogan proposal: "You Win Some, You Lose Some, You Ransom."
23

43

51

42.6

46.4

47.0

.491

.471

5.7%

0.9%

6.5%

-0.2%

-2.2%

The updated scouting report on Tim Lincecum is that he is unhittable after 140 pitches.
24

43

52

41.5

45.2

45.6

.470

.490

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.1%

It needs to be understood that Raul Ibañez's 24 home runs at the break is more than any Mariner in a full season since 2009.
25

39

53

40.9

41.4

41.8

.430

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

The last time the Twins won a series at Yankee Stadium was 2001, when Yankee Stadium was a pile of dirt next to the other Yankee Stadium.
26

42

54

41.4

40.8

40.7

.445

.425

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.1%

-1.4%

After being no-hit, of course they recorded hits in the first two at bats of their next game.
27

37

55

39.3

41.1

39.7

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

You can understand the town's adoration of Josh Phegley. His batting average is higher than his on-base percentage. He's a Jeff Keppinger in training.
28

38

56

40.0

42.8

44.0

.455

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Maybe it's time to put a pinball machine at first base, because everybody loves pinball machines, and when the pinball machine can't reach base everyone will say "well, what do you expect, it's a pinball machine."
29

35

58

36.1

33.1

33.6

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton had two outfield assists on Sunday, because if he can't escape Miami, then nobody else can.
30

33

61

32.4

27.6

29.8

.358

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Houston's first half MVP: good manners and good weather.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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