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Prospectus Hit List for July 1



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for June 28 Hit List for July 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Geez, what a bunch of jokes these guys are.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLF AHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

43

37

47.3

52.9

52.8

.588

.607

74.3%

9.4%

83.7%

-3.4%

-12.3%

Run differential through the first six innings: plus-107. Run differential through innings 7-13: minus-41. Run differential in the 14th inning: plus-5.
2

50

34

50.1

48.9

48.8

.562

.582

65.0%

21.9%

86.9%

1.2%

7.5%

They won on a walkoff error to the first baseman, and it felt good, so maybe they've looked at this thing all wrong.
3

48

34

44.7

45.1

45.4

.554

.574

60.0%

25.2%

85.2%

1.4%

1.8%

For the first time ever, Adrian Beltre and Engel Beltre got hits in the same game, so the Rangers are on pace to have nine Beltres in the lineup by I would say September.
4

48

35

47.4

47.7

46.3

.547

.567

37.3%

37.0%

74.4%

1.2%

8.4%

I saw Josh Reddick drinking a piña colada at Trader Vic's. His hair was perfect.
5

43

39

42.9

45.6

46.9

.537

.557

11.0%

25.9%

36.9%

2.3%

4.4%

Jeremy Hellickson's day game splits (2.25 ERA) are incredibly more impressive than his night splits (6.07) presumably because he descended from a long line of grandfathers.
6

49

32

52.4

50.9

49.5

.573

.554

38.6%

54.3%

92.9%

-1.8%

-2.6%

Bonds, Mays, A-Rod, Andre Dawson and Carlos Beltran. That's the list of people with 350 home runs and 300 stolen bases.
7

39

43

41.6

43.6

42.1

.533

.553

2.6%

10.7%

13.3%

0.0%

7.0%

They finally figured out how to beat the Astros, so that's everyone.
8

46

36

45.9

47.6

47.8

.561

.541

16.5%

66.6%

83.1%

-2.6%

-4.7%

Three games in Texas and their pitchers didn't allow a single home run. And they lost the series.
9

48

34

48.9

49.6

48.0

.555

.535

89.3%

4.2%

93.6%

2.5%

4.0%

BJ Upton and Justin Upton are brothers. Chris Johnson and Reed Johnson are not. And Tim Hudson may or may not be Michael Symon.
10

42

39

38.7

36.4

37.0

.515

.535

7.2%

18.1%

25.3%

-5.3%

-29.8%

This team — this fanbase — needs Alex Rodriguez back. Booing Jayson Nix just isn't the same.
11

44

38

43.8

42.2

42.5

.509

.529

23.8%

15.6%

39.5%

1.7%

13.8%

One way to get back into a tie for first place is to bat Ryan Raburn cleanup.
12

47

36

44.3

43.4

43.9

.507

.527

15.5%

28.2%

43.6%

2.9%

8.9%

At some point they're just going to give up on improving their starting rotation and convert to 12 relievers.
13

51

30

45.9

44.6

45.7

.541

.521

44.8%

49.4%

94.3%

1.9%

9.9%

They're the first team to win 50 this year, and three years ago they won their 50th on September 18.
14

40

41

40.5

37.6

39.1

.493

.513

1.3%

5.7%

7.0%

-1.9%

-7.3%

I'll have to double-check the public records, but Jose Bautista is probably the first cool person to wear sunglasses in Canada.
15

38

43

35.2

36.7

36.9

.517

.497

21.5%

1.6%

23.2%

3.9%

12.9%

Stephen Fife has made five straight quality starts. Fifemania!
16

38

41

40.5

34.2

35.1

.469

.489

1.5%

1.7%

3.2%

0.4%

-0.7%

Could this possibly be the end for Jeff Francoeur? Pitchers all around the AL Central desperately hope not.
17

42

39

41.3

39.3

39.6

.506

.486

35.2%

4.1%

39.3%

-6.3%

-14.0%

Eric Hinske was suspended by MLB for not doing anything, and the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment for basically the same reason.
18

41

42

44.2

46.6

44.7

.503

.483

19.2%

1.5%

20.7%

-0.5%

2.0%

We're up to two things to watch in Colorado: Michael Cuddyer's everlasting hitting streak, and the creeping metamorphosis of Todd Helton into a majestic oak tree.
19

41

40

38.2

37.1

37.5

.501

.481

9.4%

12.6%

22.0%

3.0%

3.1%

If you love staying around .500 so much why don't you marry it?
20

39

42

38.2

40.8

41.7

.500

.480

16.2%

1.6%

17.9%

3.2%

-8.3%

In their last 15 games they've scored 2.66 runs per game and allowed 3.8. I place blame squarely on the supermoon.
21

35

47

33.6

36.8

37.4

.457

.477

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.9%

They wore throwback uniforms from the 1909 Seattle Turks on Saturday. No doubt Raul Ibañez brought his own jersey.
22

32

47

33.7

34.3

32.5

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Casper Wells was used in an interesting way this weekend: they played their ace reliever in the outfield!
23

36

42

36.0

36.4

36.8

.441

.461

0.4%

0.5%

0.8%

-0.3%

-0.7%

Somehow, someway, this team is a mere six games out of first place. Heaven bless the American League Central.
24

35

45

38.9

40.1

39.9

.478

.458

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

0.2%

0.4%

Take away Edwin Jackson and you have not only one of the best rotations in baseball, but also a four-man rotation.
25

40

42

38.2

37.9

37.3

.471

.451

7.7%

0.8%

8.6%

-1.6%

-1.2%

If they're not working on camouflage fireworks for Fourth of July then why even have fireworks?
26

39

44

36.4

38.0

37.6

.463

.444

1.0%

1.8%

2.8%

-1.2%

-0.8%

Seems a little excessive for GMs to call Ruben Amaro, Jr. asking which of his players are on the organ donor list.
27

33

45

33.7

33.4

33.2

.461

.442

0.3%

0.4%

0.7%

-0.7%

-0.4%

John Buck's two-run homer improved the team's win expectancy to 0.0 percent, which usually happens when the score is 13-0 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
28

32

48

34.0

36.1

37.3

.456

.436

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

The Brewers are the first time since the 1925 to play 14 innings and get four or fewer hits and no walks. Neat history.
29

30

52

29.5

25.4

27.3

.362

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bag on them all you want, but their closer Jose Veras has as many saves as the Phillies, Red Sox or Indians as a team.
30

29

51

30.3

26.5

26.3

.380

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Greg Dobbs was intentionally walked to set up a game-ending Jeff Mathis grand slam. As you were.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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6 comments have been left for this article.
spekeburton2013

I realize this probably isn't your department but I find it striking that Travis Wood, who has thrown quality starts in 15 of his 16 outings, has a PWARP of 0.9, while Edwin Jackson, who has been pretty terrible in the majority of his starts, has a PWARP of 0.8. I'm a little behind on how PWARP is calculated, but it seems a stretch, even if peripherals are a major component of the calculation (Jackson is striking out more batters for sure).

Jul 01, 2013 07:54 AM
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jmanig78

The entire difference between the two resides in BABIP --- .218 for Wood vs .339 for Jackson, both of which arguably belong in the "unsustainable" category. They're almost dead even in their peripheral stats, so I wouldn't call it unreasonble.

Jul 01, 2013 16:50 PM
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ahemmer

Funny, just the other day I saw Josh Reddick with a Chinese menu in his hand.

Jul 01, 2013 10:43 AM
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hcaeb2000

Any WAR stat is absolutely meaningless drivel, made up of opinions and fairytale hobbits.

Jul 01, 2013 10:45 AM
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SC

so we can refer to comments like these as WAR in the future?

Jul 01, 2013 16:42 PM
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sandriola

"I'll have to double-check the public records, but Jose Bautista is probably the first cool person to wear sunglasses in Canada."

I take it you do not think Corey Hart (the singer) is cool. I'm sure his sunglasses-wearing is the most famous in Canada.

Jul 01, 2013 14:47 PM
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+1

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