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Prospectus Hit List for June 25



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for June 24 Hit List for June 26
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Crossing "Appel pun" off our bucket list.

RkTmW LW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

47

29

49.4

47.4

46.4

.581

.561

48.9%

46.1%

95.1%

-0.4%

-1.4%

Edward Mujica is the only pitcher with more than one save and zero decisions, and he has 21 saves.
2

46

30

41.5

40.1

41.3

.532

.512

22.5%

61.0%

83.5%

-0.9%

21.0%

Pedro Alvarez has won NL Player of the Week three times, all in different seasons. Honus Wagner won zero.
3

44

32

40.9

41.9

42.2

.554

.574

66.3%

18.4%

84.8%

1.4%

14.4%

Late endless nights in St. Louis are exactly why their ancestors left there for Texas.
4

45

32

44.7

45.1

44.7

.568

.548

28.5%

59.0%

87.5%

-0.3%

-4.7%

Mike Leake leads their rotation in ERA, and the NSA is trying to figure out how this information was released.
5

42

32

45.5

50.6

50.2

.604

.623

90.3%

5.0%

95.3%

-0.7%

-0.1%

Their starters and relievers have the exact same strikeout rate and batting average against a good reason to never look at statistics again.
6

45

33

46.0

44.9

44.9

.555

.575

49.9%

28.2%

78.2%

-1.2%

1.3%

Off days are when all the Red Sox shave their heads and add hair additives to their beards.
7

44

33

45.0

45.2

43.7

.543

.523

83.7%

4.7%

88.4%

-1.1%

-4.7%

Freddie Freeman's walkup song should be "Freebird." The whole thing. Games would last 30 minutes longer but the crowd would be happier.
8

41

34

39.9

38.3

38.5

.521

.502

44.6%

7.6%

52.3%

-1.0%

6.6%

Heath Bell already has more home runs allowed and wild pitches than last year. Overachiever.
9

44

34

43.8

44.7

43.1

.543

.562

32.3%

34.3%

66.6%

0.6%

-7.8%

Grant Balfour hasn't blown a save all year, which is more impressive because it's his winter!
10

41

34

37.4

34.3

34.8

.530

.550

26.3%

29.6%

55.9%

0.8%

-7.8%

Some want Mariano Rivera to start the All-Star Game, and others want him to close. Let's compromise: fifth inning.
11

42

35

39.6

40.4

41.1

.498

.518

8.2%

22.7%

30.9%

-3.8%

-4.2%

Just another reminder that the leader in OPS, Chris Davis, still routinely bats fifth, over 350 points better than 3-hitter Nick Markakis.
12

39

36

39.5

37.5

38.2

.503

.523

8.2%

19.0%

27.2%

1.6%

7.9%

Mike Aviles is batting .162/.224/.162 in the 2-spot. He's been there the last eight games.
13

40

37

40.2

43.1

44.1

.536

.556

13.1%

25.2%

38.3%

5.8%

3.5%

It seems most of these scary pitcher comebacks happen in Tropicana Field. Solution: just put a catwalk in front of the pitcher.
14

38

37

37.8

34.9

36.1

.494

.514

2.5%

7.7%

10.1%

-4.1%

4.3%

Their winning streak may have ended in Tampa Bay, but there's something about the grass in Tropicana Field that they just adore.
15

38

38

36.2

39.2

40.0

.509

.489

20.0%

4.2%

24.1%

-2.1%

-8.6%

More bad news for San Francisco as Angel Pagan could miss up to three months with a ruptured paradox.
16

39

38

36.7

36.0

36.1

.475

.455

10.0%

2.3%

12.3%

2.6%

-1.7%

So you want to start a Padres blog, but can't come up with the name? That's because you haven't thought of Tu Stults Es.
17

34

38

33.6

34.0

34.9

.443

.463

0.3%

1.1%

1.3%

-0.2%

0.3%

They have a winning record in June, so a big Minnesota nice thumbs up for them.
18

37

38

33.9

33.4

33.7

.489

.469

13.2%

6.3%

19.5%

0.7%

-0.8%

Maybe they should put Danny Espinosa into a basket and push him down the river. Wait ... the Potomac? Never mind.
19

35

38

37.4

31.0

31.8

.467

.487

1.1%

3.1%

4.1%

0.3%

-4.8%

Less than 10 percent of their innings have been thrown by left-handed pitchers. Free Bruce Chen?
20

39

38

42.1

44.4

42.8

.505

.485

14.9%

4.1%

19.0%

0.3%

-5.3%

Rafael Betancourt has been on the disabled list all month, but so far he has only missed one pitch.
21

36

41

31.9

32.8

32.2

.453

.434

2.1%

0.9%

3.0%

-0.6%

-2.3%

There are six Google results for "Delmon Young trade rumors." The Internet is a disgusting bastion.
22

30

42

31.3

31.0

30.5

.460

.440

1.0%

0.4%

1.4%

0.4%

0.9%

By some metrics they just may be the best base-running team. But by hitting metrics ... small sample size.
23

31

42

32.5

31.9

30.0

.446

.466

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

0.2%

-0.4%

They sure needed an off day. They could use another week, honestly.
24

33

42

32.6

34.6

34.9

.514

.494

10.5%

2.0%

12.5%

2.2%

1.4%

Why in heaven's name is there a band called Puig Destroyer and not one called The Puiggles?
25

31

43

35.7

38.1

38.3

.480

.460

0.0%

0.6%

0.7%

0.1%

-0.3%

In a fit of marketing genius, the team changes their name to the "Stanley Cubs." Hockey fans show up in droves, completely confused.
26

33

43

36.6

39.0

37.7

.522

.542

1.1%

4.7%

5.9%

-0.5%

-6.4%

Howie Kendrick, owner of the team's highest batting average (.323) by 17 points, is second on the team with four intentional walks.
27

34

43

32.0

34.4

34.9

.459

.479

0.3%

0.6%

0.8%

-0.2%

-0.4%

Mike Morse is second on the team with 11 home runs. He hasn't hit one all month.
28

31

43

32.0

33.9

34.9

.464

.444

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.2%

-0.0%

They lead the league with 103 infield hits, so they may as well just convert the outfield to extra seats.
29

29

48

28.6

24.8

26.4

.369

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Really kicking myself for not calling the MLB Draft "Appel Picking Season."
30

25

50

27.0

23.3

23.2

.367

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Marcell Ozuna will be their All-Star, right? Because they can't send the sculpture. Or can they?

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
RaysProf

"Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams."

But since there is no documentation here about HOW the adjustment to the HLF is calculated, we can simply assume the author multiplies the HLF by the "Sussman-AL-love" coefficient. This explains why the Pirates are a completely average team. ;-)

Jun 25, 2013 15:50 PM
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DetroitDale

Re: the Braves comment... Freeman shouldn't have a walkup song at all... just some guy shouting "SHAZAM!"

Re: the Pirates comment. Honus Wagner didn't win player of the week because they didn't have one back then. Reporters where too busy carving box scores in stone tablets back then to vote on a new player every week.

Jun 25, 2013 17:59 PM
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walbeck

And for today's hit list for the Giants, you can reference Bochy and Fred McGriff looking up at 500...

Jun 26, 2013 00:05 AM
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