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Prospectus Hit List for June 24



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for June 21 Hit List for June 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Just four more Hit Lists until the WEEEEEEEEEEEKEND

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

47

29

49.4

47.4

46.4

.581

.561

51.6%

43.9%

95.5%

0.5%

0.6%

Given that Adam Wainwright hardly walks anybody, you can understand why his dog hates him.
2

46

30

41.5

40.1

41.3

.532

.512

23.0%

61.3%

84.3%

6.5%

20.8%

This has to be their season. Anybody who doesn't believe that is probably ... somebody who has watched baseball in the past.
3

45

32

44.7

45.1

44.7

.568

.548

25.4%

62.4%

87.8%

2.8%

-1.8%

In seven career starts against them, Mat Latos has struck out 11.1 Diamondbacks per nine innings.
4

45

33

46.0

44.9

44.9

.555

.575

49.9%

29.5%

79.4%

0.1%

2.1%

Daniel Nava clearly made that catch in right field, but the irony is that the umpires were the ones who, in fact, dropped the ball.
5

44

34

43.8

44.7

43.1

.543

.562

32.8%

33.2%

66.0%

-3.6%

-12.2%

Opposing batting average for Sean Doolittle by month: April: .128; May: .156; June: .341.
6

44

33

45.0

45.2

43.8

.543

.523

86.3%

3.3%

89.5%

6.5%

-1.9%

Jordan Schafer is looking like a promising leadoff guy for the Braves, and I don't see this housing market collapsing any time soon!
7

44

32

40.9

41.9

42.3

.554

.574

65.5%

18.0%

83.4%

3.9%

19.3%

They can't find a permanent spot for Jurickson Profar. Possible solution: just put him between second and short. Extra fielder. See if anybody complains.
8

42

34

39.4

39.9

40.6

.500

.520

12.3%

22.4%

34.7%

-3.5%

-5.4%

It's gonna be awesome when they sign Manny Ramirez for the stretch run. "Baltimanny."
9

42

32

45.5

50.6

50.2

.603

.622

91.9%

4.1%

96.0%

2.5%

0.7%

Their first walkoff win of the season was on Friday, bringing their total runs scored in the ninth inning to ... 12!
10

41

34

39.9

38.3

38.5

.522

.502

46.3%

7.0%

53.3%

-3.4%

7.7%

They couldn't win on Star Wars Night, possibly because they didn't fully embrace lightsabermetrics.
11

41

34

37.4

34.3

34.8

.530

.550

24.5%

30.6%

55.1%

-5.7%

-7.4%

Zoilo Almonte has a .583/.643/1.000 line through five games, which just shows you that if you want to make it in this sport, have a funny name.
12

39

37

39.4

42.0

43.0

.533

.553

10.0%

22.5%

32.5%

5.9%

-2.6%

With his first career dinger being a grand slam at Yankee Stadium, Wil Myers is the first True Yankee to have never played for them.
13

39

38

42.1

44.4

42.8

.505

.485

15.3%

3.4%

18.7%

3.0%

-8.9%

Rex Brothers has thrown 30 consecutive scoreless innings, which I haven't noticed because I've been making jokes on both his name and Rex's brother's name.
14

38

36

37.6

34.9

36.2

.498

.518

3.4%

10.8%

14.2%

3.7%

9.3%

After 11 straight wins, their only two possible outcomes are World Series championship or 50-game losing streak.
15

38

38

36.0

35.4

35.6

.474

.454

8.2%

1.6%

9.8%

-2.3%

-0.8%

Andrew Cashner throws nearly 95 mph and hasn't struck out more than six batters in a start this season.
16

38

36

38.7

37.0

37.7

.501

.521

7.1%

18.6%

25.6%

-3.5%

3.9%

It's that kind of year where Scott Kazmir doubles his career win total against the Twins to four.
17

38

37

35.9

38.6

39.5

.509

.489

22.1%

4.1%

26.2%

-5.3%

-9.9%

Somehow they are 1-6 against the Marlins and Brewers on the year.
18

37

38

33.9

33.4

33.7

.489

.470

11.0%

7.8%

18.9%

-6.8%

-5.9%

They just can't seem to stay at .500. They are too afraid to answer .500's texts and will try to ignore .500 until prom night.
19

36

40

31.5

32.4

31.9

.454

.435

2.2%

1.4%

3.6%

-2.9%

-0.5%

Kevin Frandsen's pinch-hit game-ending homer on Saturday was the Phillies first of its kind since 364 days prior, when Jim Thome did it. Those two baseball players, so much alike.
20

35

38

37.4

31.0

31.8

.466

.486

0.7%

3.1%

3.8%

0.7%

-3.7%

Eight MLB players have seven or more home runs this month. Nobody on Kansas City has more than six all year.
21

34

38

33.6

34.0

34.9

.444

.463

0.2%

1.3%

1.6%

0.1%

0.7%

They're using Clete Thomas as their leadoff batter, apparently. I'm sure his eyes opened wide with amazement when he heard that.
22

34

43

32.0

34.4

34.9

.459

.479

0.2%

0.8%

1.1%

0.4%

-0.1%

Ye baseball gods don't care for your childhood when they let Raul Ibaņez age more gracefully than Ken Griffey, Jr.
23

33

43

36.6

39.0

37.7

.522

.542

1.5%

4.8%

6.3%

-1.0%

-4.2%

Josh Hamilton was lifted for a pinch-hitter. Was it (a) Brendan Harris, or (b) hey stop laughing so hard I haven't finished the choices yet.
24

32

42

31.9

34.1

34.4

.512

.492

8.2%

2.1%

10.3%

1.7%

0.6%

"Chris Capuano is healthy and throwing well, so they might have a chance," he said with a totally serious face.
25

31

43

32.0

33.9

34.9

.464

.444

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-0.4%

-0.2%

Controversial opinion here, but their pitchers probably shouldn't have a higher batting average (.214) than their first basemen (.180).
26

31

43

35.7

38.1

38.3

.480

.460

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Summer tip: Get on down to your local farmer's market, and be sure to get there early if you want to acquire the freshest, juiciest Cubs players.
27

31

42

32.5

31.9

30.0

.446

.466

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

"You can put him on the blooooock, yes!" --How I imagine Hawk Harrelson discusses trade deadline
28

30

42

31.3

31.0

30.5

.459

.440

0.5%

0.6%

1.1%

0.2%

0.6%

David Wright was a single shy of the cycle yesterday, mostly because he had two doubles, which makes it statistically better than a cycle but you could also overinflate your wheel so stop trying so hard, David.
29

29

48

28.6

24.8

26.4

.369

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You've read this far down, so let's do a positive one. Chris Carter went 7-for-13 with four doubles, a home run and just one strikeout against the Cubs. It's the second time this year he's had just one K in a series.
30

25

50

27.0

23.3

23.2

.367

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

They've won nine of their last 10 games at the Giants. I will assume their last visit there was 2003.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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5 comments have been left for this article.
adrock

I am not at all invested in the Angels, or where they rank on the Daily Hit List, but I can't for the life of me figure out how they rank 10th here.

Can anyone offer a little insight?

Jun 24, 2013 08:08 AM
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0

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TGisriel

I believe the culprit is the use of the "Depth Chart Win %" in the Hit List Factor. This is the projection of the season's record done before the season. At this point use of the "Depth Chart Win %" increases the Angel's position, and decreasese the Orioles position. Based on the discussion after the June 20 Hit List, the use of the Depth Chart Win % drops out after 103 games have been played.

Jun 24, 2013 08:23 AM
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+1

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adrock

Thanks! That makes sense.

Jun 24, 2013 08:37 AM
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0

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pobothecat

and, yet, totally doesn't.

Jun 24, 2013 09:06 AM
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-1

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jroegele

Jurickson Profar: rover.

Jun 25, 2013 09:51 AM
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0

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