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Prospectus Hit List for June 20



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for June 19 Hit List for June 21
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

I put my hand on your hip, when I Hit you Hit we Hit

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

39

31

43.0

48.4

47.7

.603

.622

88.5%

4.6%

93.1%

-1.1%

-0.9%

They may not need a closer if they can just get all other teams to agree and make baseball games seven innings long.
2

46

26

47.3

45.3

43.9

.584

.564

58.8%

36.9%

95.7%

0.2%

0.1%

If Jake Westbrook's ERA goes above 2.00, the bus will explode.
3

43

30

43.1

43.8

42.0

.550

.530

87.5%

4.3%

91.8%

1.7%

1.4%

Only one Upton is allowed to be hitting well at a time. Otherwise they fight, stay up late, and are cranky all day.
4

44

29

43.5

43.5

42.7

.574

.554

30.9%

60.8%

91.7%

1.5%

1.8%

Jay Bruce is so popular he should run for mayor! Jay Bruce assumes office and hits nothing but home runs. The economy collapses and he is forced out of office, but with a good slugging percentage.
5

44

30

44.7

43.4

42.9

.562

.582

50.7%

30.0%

80.7%

-4.5%

-1.7%

Ryan Dempster leads the league in home starts (11) and Jon Lester is tied for the league lead in road starts (10).
6

37

36

39.9

42.6

41.2

.506

.486

11.5%

5.6%

17.0%

-5.3%

-4.8%

Some of you learned Michael Cuddyer has a 17-game hitting streak. The rest of you just learned Michael Cuddyer now plays for the Rockies.
7

43

31

42.1

42.5

41.3

.547

.566

51.8%

22.3%

74.2%

-4.9%

-0.4%

So I heard they need some new strong pipes, but I thought that's why they signed Yoenis Cespedes in the first place.
8

40

32

38.2

39.8

39.9

.549

.569

44.3%

23.9%

68.2%

3.3%

-9.3%

Lance Berkman has five more career homers than Joe DiMaggio, but considerably fewer coffee endorsements.
9

37

35

37.3

39.4

40.7

.532

.552

8.1%

21.9%

30.0%

4.4%

-14.5%

Jeremy Hellickson's ERA is way lower in day games (2.42) compared to night starts (6.72), so consider investing in a night light.
10

42

31

39.0

39.1

39.7

.507

.527

14.6%

28.6%

43.3%

3.1%

18.7%

Maybe they should call him C"HR"is Davis, don't you think? ...What's that? Yes, I'll leave your front porch.
11

32

40

35.4

37.9

36.8

.529

.549

3.5%

7.8%

11.3%

1.3%

4.5%

They won 1-0 on a wild pitch that scored Mike Trout, and I choose to believe the pitch was thrown to Trout as well.
12

37

34

34.8

36.9

38.3

.515

.495

32.2%

6.8%

39.1%

3.0%

9.0%

Juan Perez has four assists from center field in eight major league games; in the last two years in the minors he had two CF assists in 21 games.
13

39

33

37.9

36.7

36.7

.520

.500

39.3%

10.0%

49.3%

2.7%

-10.3%

Josh Collmenter pitched six innings of emergency relief AND had a base hit. So stop complaining that you had to show up to work early and only pitch five.
14

42

30

38.2

36.5

37.4

.521

.501

10.3%

54.2%

64.6%

-3.5%

0.2%

Uh oh, Jason Grilli blew his first save of the season. Sounds like the league finally figured out it was just Jason Grilli all along.
15

36

35

36.8

35.6

36.4

.501

.521

8.5%

16.5%

25.0%

3.8%

7.1%

Yesterday was Michael Brantley's first multi-homer game, but also his 15th career sacrifice fly and nobody seems to care.
16

29

41

33.2

34.9

35.4

.475

.455

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.2%

0.1%

Why isn't Ian Stewart responding to my DMs?
17

36

36

34.2

34.2

34.4

.476

.456

8.2%

2.3%

10.5%

-2.0%

5.0%

Luke Gregerson has faced Gregor Blanco twice in his career and allowed two gregers ... I mean hits. Wait ... gregers. Final answer.
18

39

32

35.5

33.0

33.3

.533

.553

25.3%

31.9%

57.2%

-4.9%

-12.6%

Vernon Wells OPS by month: April: .911. May: .615. June: [squints] um, I can't find it.
19

35

36

35.0

32.8

34.2

.492

.512

1.3%

6.5%

7.8%

0.7%

6.8%

Edwin Encarnacion has the most home runs in baseball (19) without an intentional walk, but he is well short of the record set by Roger Maris.
20

32

41

29.8

32.4

33.0

.458

.478

0.4%

0.8%

1.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

Two hits in a baseball game is not enough to win a game, but plenty to avoid being no-hit yet again.
21

35

38

30.9

31.8

31.1

.459

.439

2.4%

3.1%

5.6%

-1.6%

1.4%

Yesterday they recorded hits in the first, 10th and 11th innings. In between, scholars disagree but most likely they spent time grooving out to Grateful Dead records.
22

29

41

30.2

31.7

32.5

.462

.442

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.2%

0.1%

Prince is back playing for Milwaukee! Josh Prince, that is; recalled from Triple-A yesterday.
23

32

36

31.4

31.4

32.4

.439

.459

0.6%

0.9%

1.4%

0.4%

0.4%

That moment when you realize Glen Perkins will be the most desired closer at the trade deadline.
24

30

40

29.8

31.3

31.7

.508

.487

8.8%

2.7%

11.5%

1.2%

-1.0%

Ronald Belisario doubled his career fielding error total (two) on a single play, which takes a specific type of talent.
25

35

36

32.1

31.2

31.3

.488

.469

9.7%

11.3%

21.0%

2.5%

-2.7%

Ian Desmond hit a grand slam in extra innings, leaving you as the only human being yet to do so this year.
26

34

36

36.9

30.5

31.6

.472

.492

2.1%

4.2%

6.3%

-1.3%

3.0%

Forget about Billy Butler's barbecue sauce; I want to know where I can purchase some Greg Hollandaise.
27

29

40

30.0

29.3

27.6

.440

.460

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

-0.2%

-1.3%

Not that it's likely, but Chris Sale trade rumors would be wonderful if only for the easy headlines.
28

27

41

28.4

27.9

27.4

.449

.430

0.3%

0.4%

0.7%

-0.3%

-0.4%

Imagine how good this team would be with a healthy Johan Santana. And Jose Reyes. And Bobby Bonilla. And Ed Kranepool.
29

27

46

27.1

24.0

25.8

.370

.389

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

Congratulations to Chris Carter for being the first player to 100 batting strikeouts this season! Yadier Molina has yet to strike out 100 times in any two-year span.
30

22

49

24.2

21.1

20.8

.358

.340

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They're 8-3 against the Mets and 14-46 against the non-Mets.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
TGisriel

At what point in the season does the preseason depth chart win % drop out, so that the HLF is based solely on the actual performance during the season?

Jun 20, 2013 09:28 AM
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Schere

as a fellow O's fan, I am also interested in the answer! If it was a straight average of the actual wins and the H123 things, the O's would be 6th, I think?

The Angels ranking looks like a bug.

Jun 20, 2013 15:41 PM
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gweedoh565

I can't find it now, of course, but I'm fairly certain that at some point in the past few days, someone at BP mentioned the number as somewhere in the range of 100-110 games.

Maybe I dreamed it? And/or maybe I'm spending way too much time on this site.

Jun 20, 2013 18:18 PM
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BP staff member Ben Lindbergh

That was me. Colin Wyers tells me it's somewhere around 103 games.

Jun 21, 2013 01:43 AM
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steve.k

The other night, the Upton brothers had an outfield collision. The catch was made, they both tumbled to the ground, the inning was over. As they were walking off, BJ punched Jason, playfully, of course.

Jun 20, 2013 09:56 AM
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