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Prospectus Hit List for June 19



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for June 18 Hit List for June 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's called the Hit LIst because the Braves comment will make you want to hit Matt, hard.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

45

26

46.4

44.3

43.1

.582

.563

54.8%

40.6%

95.5%

-1.0%

-1.0%

They lost yesterday when a pinch-runner was called out trying to break up a double play on a slide out of the basepath, which is about as scrappy a way the Cardinals can lose a game this side of bunting into a triple play.
2

44

29

44.6

43.6

42.9

.566

.586

55.7%

29.5%

85.2%

8.3%

5.5%

They walked off with a victory in the second game of their doubleheader, but in a physiological sense they also walked off in the first win too.
3

39

30

43.5

48.5

47.7

.608

.627

90.0%

4.3%

94.3%

-1.0%

-0.2%

Justin Verlander has allowed seven home runs this year; four to the Orioles, three of which were hit by J.J. Hardy.
4

43

29

42.8

43.0

42.2

.574

.554

33.6%

56.6%

90.2%

-1.9%

2.2%

Business idea: a reality show about the Reds' backup catcher called "Mesoraco's Modern Life."
5

42

30

42.4

42.7

41.1

.547

.527

87.0%

3.8%

90.8%

-2.2%

-2.0%

Evan Gattis had to be put on the disabled list, so you can probably call him El Oh-sore Blanco.
6

43

30

42.2

42.6

41.3

.551

.570

57.3%

21.7%

79.0%

4.7%

10.5%

If they do relocate to San Jose, they'll have to move pretty far — potentially all the way into their current stadium's foul territory.
7

37

35

39.6

42.1

40.7

.508

.488

17.5%

4.8%

22.4%

-2.0%

-6.3%

Are you fully prepared for Roy Oswalt to join their starting rotation tomorrow? Trick question; nobody ever is.
8

42

29

37.8

36.0

36.8

.522

.502

11.6%

56.6%

68.2%

5.6%

7.4%

Yesterday the Pirates became the first team since the 2011 Braves to strike out at least 17 times in a nine-inning game and win.
9

41

31

37.5

38.0

38.6

.504

.524

11.5%

28.6%

40.2%

5.1%

13.6%

A fine spot start by Zach Britton yesterday, but did he even have the best start by a Zach?
10

38

33

37.1

36.2

36.2

.519

.499

36.8%

10.3%

47.1%

1.3%

-5.8%

Once again, they won late! East coasters trying to stay up and watch the game are all, "tell me about it!"
11

39

32

37.1

38.8

39.0

.547

.567

39.8%

25.1%

65.0%

-5.4%

-17.5%

They're playing Lance Berkman in the field, so you can't accuse them of not trying EVERYTHING to break this slump.
12

34

35

36.7

30.2

31.3

.475

.495

2.0%

5.6%

7.6%

-1.4%

4.3%

Between James Shields, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, all but once the starter has gone at least six innings. A rotation: the Royals sorta have one!™
13

36

35

36.4

38.2

39.6

.528

.548

5.8%

19.8%

25.6%

-9.3%

-21.3%

Wil Myers went 0-for-4 in his debut and Ted Williams went 1-for-4 in his. That's only one less than a Hall of Famer, which is pretty great.
14

35

35

36.0

34.9

35.9

.499

.519

7.6%

13.6%

21.2%

2.0%

5.8%

Chris Perez allowed three home runs in a Double-A rehab appearance, but legally they are charged to his dog.
15

38

31

35.0

32.7

33.0

.537

.557

25.6%

36.6%

62.2%

-1.5%

-9.5%

The rain postponed a game where the Yankees' DH was to be someone named Thomas Neal, a sign from nature to correct this immediately.
16

31

40

34.8

37.0

36.0

.527

.546

2.6%

7.4%

10.0%

-2.3%

4.3%

In what universe is Joe Blanton capable of striking out 11 batters, other than of course Joe Blanton's exquisite Lego sculpture of Joe Blanton striking out 11 batters?
17

34

36

34.2

32.2

33.7

.489

.509

1.4%

5.7%

7.0%

1.2%

5.6%

They've won seven in a row and are finally starting to heat up, perhaps because it's the one week of the year Canada isn't covered in ice.
18

36

34

34.1

36.2

37.6

.513

.493

29.2%

6.3%

35.5%

2.9%

1.8%

Don't stare directly into Barry Zito's home/road splits, they're— aw, come on! Well, if you're anything like me, you'll start recognizing colors in about 8-12 hours.
19

36

35

33.9

34.0

34.0

.479

.459

9.0%

3.5%

12.5%

-1.5%

7.8%

They're so unnoticed in the race for the NL West, it's as if they're wearing ... well, you know.
20

29

40

33.1

34.8

35.2

.478

.458

0.0%

1.1%

1.1%

0.1%

0.6%

Well of course Cody Ransom is having a career year at age 37. The Cubs are a NASCAR team, yes?
21

34

36

31.2

30.4

30.5

.486

.466

9.2%

8.9%

18.1%

-2.3%

-1.8%

And to think, Stephen Strasburg would have maintained top value if the Nationals kept him in the box rather than playing with him.
22

35

37

30.8

31.6

31.0

.461

.442

3.4%

3.7%

7.1%

1.7%

1.7%

Ryan Howard has tripled twice this month, and it's not even one of those fancy Aztec months with like 500 days in them ... is it?
23

31

36

30.6

30.3

31.5

.434

.454

0.2%

0.9%

1.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You'd be surprised how many productive players they find wandering aimlessly in the Mall of America food court.
24

29

39

29.8

29.5

27.8

.444

.464

0.2%

0.3%

0.6%

-0.3%

-0.7%

Alex Rios (.345) is their only qualified hitter to have an OBP above the league average of .317. Alex Rios: overachiever.
25

28

41

29.6

31.3

32.2

.460

.441

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-0.3%

-0.2%

Yuniesky Betancourt had two throwing errors yesterday, so now I know what happened to my garden gnomes.
26

32

40

29.5

32.4

32.9

.460

.479

0.3%

0.9%

1.2%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Jeremy Bonderman is shutting down the opposition. Don't bother looking at your calendar to see what year it is — I glued the pages together!
27

29

39

28.4

29.7

30.1

.502

.482

7.4%

2.9%

10.3%

-0.8%

-4.7%

Rained out in New York? No wonder they moved cross-country.
28

27

40

28.1

27.9

27.3

.452

.433

0.4%

0.5%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

Did Matt Harvey strike you out yesterday? If so, attend our support group on Friday evening at the corner coffeehouse. (Note: we will not pay for your coffee.)
29

27

45

26.9

23.5

25.5

.371

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

[this space reserved for a joke about the Astros on days they lose and don't score 10 runs in a game]
30

22

48

24.0

20.7

20.5

.357

.339

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yes, but how about those Heat? ("That" Heat? Help out here, grammarians.)

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


8 comments have been left for this article.
kensharp

How can the Angels be ahead of the Braves?

Jun 19, 2013 09:35 AM
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-2

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BP staff member Matt Sussman

Higher AHLF

Jun 19, 2013 12:43 PM
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+1

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andykaylor

Thus demonstrating how silly AHLF is.

Jun 19, 2013 21:42 PM
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-1

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Matt

Love the Strasburg comment

Jun 19, 2013 12:10 PM
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0

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NYYanks826

"A fine spot start by Zach Britton yesterday, but did he even have the best start by a Zach?"

Yes, because the Wheeler's first name is Zack.

Jun 19, 2013 12:56 PM
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0

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Llarry

Spend enough time trolling the Mall of America food court and you might find Jimmy Hoffa, DB Cooper and Amelia Earhart lost in there, too.

Jun 19, 2013 22:29 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Llarry

Spend enough time trolling the Mall of America food court and you might find Jimmy Hoffa, DB Cooper and Amelia Earhart lost in there, too.

Jun 19, 2013 22:29 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Llarry

Spend enough time trolling the Mall of America food court and you might find Jimmy Hoffa, DB Cooper and Amelia Earhart lost in there, too.

Jun 19, 2013 22:29 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
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