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Prospectus Hit List for June 12



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 11 Hit List for June 13
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Too many Pedros

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

42

22

43.0

41.2

40.3

.595

.575

63.4%

33.1%

96.5%

1.4%

5.0%

The final score of last nightís game was Cardinals two runs, Mets two runs, Cardinals seven unearned runs, Mets who cares they lost.
2

36

27

40.0

44.6

43.9

.610

.629

91.7%

2.7%

94.4%

0.5%

3.6%

Normally I might criticize manager Jim Leyland for putting Andy Dirks and his .250/.304/.355 slash line in the lead-off spot, but Iím too tired. Also every time I look at Dirks name I think of Andy Dick. So, to reiterate, tired + Andy Dick = fine, screw up your lineup, whatever.
3

39

26

39.8

40.4

38.8

.561

.541

88.7%

4.1%

92.8%

-0.4%

3.0%

In June B.J. Upton is hitting .276/.417/.517 which sounds great until you remember June is 11 days old and Upton is hitting .163/.263/.284 on the season.
4

39

26

39.4

39.4

38.7

.578

.558

28.1%

59.8%

88.0%

4.3%

0.1%

The only player in the Reds starting lineup to not record a hit during their 12-run barrage was catcher Ryan Hanigan, which means, yes, pitcher Tony Cingrani went 2-for-2.
5

38

26

36.5

36.9

36.8

.565

.585

63.8%

18.7%

82.5%

-2.8%

-2.7%

Elvis Andrus has as many home runs this season as Elvis Presley, but heís behind the king in dying on the toilet.
6

40

26

40.7

40.3

39.4

.571

.591

42.9%

36.8%

79.7%

-3.8%

1.0%

The Red Sox designated Pedro Ciriaco for assignment because, really, enough with all the Pedros already.
7

37

27

33.6

32.0

32.5

.550

.570

35.7%

36.0%

71.7%

-5.6%

8.7%

The Yankees have the third-worst OPS from shortstops in the American League, yet they insist on continuing to play Derek Jeter on the disabled list.
8

39

27

37.6

37.7

36.4

.546

.565

34.5%

34.0%

68.5%

3.0%

5.4%

I donít know what Bartolo Colon is ingesting in his spare time but I suspect if Major League Baseball tested for it Colon would be positive for hot dogs.
9

38

26

34.5

32.6

33.4

.524

.504

8.5%

52.3%

60.8%

6.3%

9.1%

Gerrit Cole's 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball: just another reason that being a Pirates fan is the best itís been since about 1992.
10

36

29

34.6

33.0

33.7

.523

.503

40.2%

12.7%

52.9%

-6.0%

-8.2%

Gerardo Parra is tied for the most home runs hit by a player thrown out stealing at least seven times. Youíre welcome.
11

35

29

35.0

36.4

37.8

.546

.566

15.0%

31.9%

46.9%

6.3%

5.0%

Of the Raysí eight homers in the last two games, seven have been solo shots and the eighth was a two-run homer.
12

33

30

29.8

32.1

33.5

.511

.491

25.2%

8.5%

33.7%

-7.0%

0.8%

Not sure if Ďjust mediocre enough to loseí is a good thing or not for Tim Lincecum.
13

35

30

36.6

38.6

37.5

.515

.495

21.0%

7.6%

28.6%

5.5%

9.8%

I thought the Rockies were first in runs scored at home, but actually theyíre tied for fourteenth (if you select the "away games" category by accident.)
14

37

28

34.0

34.0

34.1

.501

.521

6.2%

20.4%

26.6%

3.1%

-1.3%

Orioles closer Jim Johnson was born in Johnson City, New York, a town that ranks just behind Koryville, Idaho on the list of best towns in America by Probably Made It Up Magazine.
15

31

32

27.7

27.1

27.5

.486

.466

8.6%

11.3%

19.9%

-4.8%

-10.1%

Scott Boras said Bryce Harper didnít undergo surgery. When reached for comment, the Nationals said, "Wait, what did Scott say?"
16

31

33

32.5

31.3

32.8

.495

.515

6.4%

9.0%

15.4%

2.9%

-12.8%

The Indians eight-game losing streak is over, meaning weíll have to wait until next season at the soonest for them to lose 100 in a row.
17

28

36

27.0

29.1

29.4

.509

.489

10.3%

4.8%

15.0%

3.0%

-7.3%

With runners in scoring position the Dodgers have a .626 OPS, the worst in baseball so no, you werenít imagining it. They actually DO do that all the time.
18

27

38

30.0

31.6

30.6

.511

.531

1.3%

4.4%

5.7%

-2.1%

-8.7%

Itís popular to make fun of the Angels for signing all those high priced free agents who are playing badly. Sure itís reasonable, topical, and hilariously funny but itís also popular.
19

31

34

27.7

28.1

27.2

.457

.437

2.5%

2.9%

5.4%

-1.3%

-2.8%

If tapping weak groundballs to infielders were the point of hitting, Ben Revere would be an All-Star. Of course, if that were the case, Iíd be in the Hall of Fame.
20

31

34

30.0

29.7

29.8

.467

.447

3.3%

1.3%

4.6%

0.3%

2.5%

Itís becoming clear with each passing 0-for-3 that Mark Kotsay is here from the future to warm us away from some incoming horrible atrocity. WHAT IS IT MARK? I AWAIT YOUR INSTRUCTIONS!
21

29

33

31.5

25.7

25.9

.461

.481

1.1%

2.1%

3.2%

-0.9%

1.9%

David Loughís home run wasnít just the first of his career, it was also the third the Royals have received from a right fielder all season.
22

29

37

28.2

31.8

32.1

.470

.490

0.4%

1.2%

1.6%

0.2%

-0.1%

After they called up Mike Zunino people are acting like the Mariners shouldnít be allowed to call up any prospects ever hey Iíve got a great idea!
23

28

36

28.5

27.5

29.3

.470

.490

0.2%

1.2%

1.4%

-0.1%

0.5%

Adam Lind is hitting .335/.413/.532 which is like have you heard the fifth Bush comeback album? It's AMAZING!
24

28

35

27.7

27.5

26.1

.447

.467

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

-1.0%

-0.4%

The White Sox arenít last in walks. No! Theyíre a whole walk ahead of last place, thank you very much.
25

28

33

27.8

27.8

28.7

.435

.455

0.3%

0.7%

1.0%

0.1%

-0.2%

The Twins lead baseball teams in OPS from the catcher position. They donít rank higher than 13th at any other position.
26

23

36

23.9

23.5

22.9

.443

.423

0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

-0.4%

-0.6%

David Wright was named the NL Home Run Derby Captain, which makes sense because heís tied for 27th in home runs in the National League with 11 other players.
27

26

38

27.0

28.2

29.2

.456

.436

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.1%

Yuniesky Betancourt is hitting .218/.248/.374 which is awful, but okay, heís a shortstop, except no, actually the Brewers have him playing first base.
28

25

37

29.1

30.9

31.1

.472

.453

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.8%

-1.5%

I bet the Cubs could get some prospects by trading Matt Garza to the five innings, nine runs, two walks, three strikeouts, and three homers never mind.
29

22

44

22.6

20.1

22.0

.356

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

MLB.com's headline: "Houston proves helpless against..." you can probably stop right there.
30

19

45

21.8

18.8

18.2

.352

.334

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins are 20 games behind the Braves which is a lot but itís even more when you consider the Marlins have won only 19 games.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
Oblarg

I do not understand how the HLF is generated; it's clearly not actually any sort of mean (weighted or otherwise) of the pythagorean winning percentages, as several teams have HLF's that are strictly outside the range of their three pythagorean win rates. Additionally, a couple of teams have both strictly higher pythagorean win percentages *and* lower HLF's than other teams.

Could someone explain this?

Jun 12, 2013 07:55 AM
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newsense

It's supposed to be a straight average of the three Pythagorean winning percentages plus the ACTUAL winning percentage. But you're right. Look at Houston:the four win totals average 21.7 wins in 66 games. That should be a HLF on .328, not .356

Jun 12, 2013 08:16 AM
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Drakos

The Dodgers number doesn't make any sense either. I don't get how they have a HLF of over .500.

Jun 12, 2013 09:30 AM
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BP staff member Colin Wyers

For early-season results, we include the DC win percentages as an additional value to the hit list. Once we switch the nightly update processes over to stop using seed values (once sample sizes for everything get to the point where running on only in-season results works), we'll do a blog post announcing the cut-over.

Jun 12, 2013 14:44 PM
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DetroitDale

Re: the Rangers comment: C'mon Don't be cruel

Jun 13, 2013 06:50 AM
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