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Prospectus Hit List for May 23



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 22 Hit List for May 24
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which the Angels are ahead of all three teams tied for first place in the NL West.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLF AHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

25

19

27.4

30.2

29.5

.606

.625

73.5%

14.4%

87.9%

1.6%

-0.0%

Bad games for Justin Verlander are kind of funny. He gives up hits and runs, but as he did last night, he still struck out nine guys while only walking one. Would that our worst efforts would look so beautiful.
2

30

17

28.8

28.5

28.0

.582

.601

82.6%

7.0%

89.6%

2.0%

-0.2%

Considering yesterday's successful start by 30-year-old Ross Wolf who appeared out of a cloud of smoke, took the mound and fired five one-run innings, the Rangers now plan to get all their starters out of check-out lines at the local Wal-Mart. Look for the Rangers representative by the door in the red smock!
3

28

19

27.5

28.2

27.3

.560

.580

28.4%

35.7%

64.1%

4.0%

9.8%

Strange: David Ortiz stole a base. Stranger: it was third base. Strangest: David Ortiz stole a base!!!
4

28

18

25.6

23.1

23.0

.553

.573

54.5%

24.4%

78.9%

-1.5%

-2.4%

According to Hit Tracker Online, Robinson Cano leads the majors in Lucky home runs. Of course, he's also second in the majors in No Doubt homers. I guess he hits a lot of home runs.
5

29

18

29.7

29.0

27.7

.585

.565

47.7%

37.2%

84.8%

1.3%

6.1%

Nobody can hit Matt Harvey. Zack Cosart can hit Matt Harvey. Therefore, everyone can hit Matt Harvey. Logic!
6

26

19

25.4

25.7

25.3

.535

.555

20.9%

28.6%

49.6%

-3.1%

4.4%

Michael Bourn is a helper, a caring healer. He saw Miguel Cabrera was in pain and gently bumped his warning-track fly over the wall for a homer. It's because, above all else, he cares. And he screwed up but mostly... he cares.
7

24

22

24.1

25.0

26.0

.535

.555

13.7%

25.6%

39.3%

-1.9%

1.3%

There's good news and bad news. The bad news is that the last 175 games say Desmond Jennings is a .700 OPS hitter. The good news is eventually he'll leave as a free agent anyway.
8

30

16

29.5

27.3

27.1

.572

.553

39.1%

41.1%

80.2%

3.4%

2.9%

The Cardinals are the first National League team to 30 wins. They're also the first to eat 30 boxes of doughnuts on a flight between St. Louis and San Diego, but that's probably less important.
9

28

18

28.0

27.9

27.1

.561

.541

69.5%

12.2%

81.7%

0.1%

17.1%

Maybe tomorrow it will be different, but right now, if you could be anyone in the world besides Justin Bieber, it would be Evan Gattis.
10

25

23

24.9

25.5

25.0

.518

.538

11.5%

21.1%

32.7%

-2.7%

13.1%

Three of the top five stories on the A's homepage are about injuries to ex-Red Sox. Maybe it's time to stop taking Ben Cherington's calls, eh?
11

25

21

25.0

24.9

24.7

.505

.525

2.9%

12.4%

15.4%

2.9%

-6.8%

That's 14 homers for Chris Davis who we all know you have on your fantasy team so please, shut up about it.
12

19

27

21.0

22.1

21.7

.504

.524

4.7%

12.1%

16.8%

1.2%

0.5%

How much better would the Angels be if, instead of signing Josh Hamilton, they'd given Vernon Wells a five year, $125 million extension?
13

26

21

26.4

26.0

26.3

.540

.520

34.5%

15.6%

50.1%

-4.5%

-0.5%

Didi Gregorious's full name is Mariekson Julius Gregorius. That is so wonderful I will now refer to him only with his full name, as in Mariekson Julius Gregorius went 1-for-three with a walk. Wonderful.
14

28

18

25.5

25.3

25.2

.533

.513

12.6%

34.7%

47.3%

2.3%

10.1%

If Francisco Liriano were still on the Twins he'd have the lowest ERA on the team. In fairness though, his ERA is 1.00 so it would be the lowest on just about any team.
15

21

22

23.2

19.9

19.9

.484

.504

2.8%

7.1%

9.9%

-2.5%

-11.8%

Last night, the Royals lost, not just a game, but a series to the Astros. They join the Angels and Mariners (twice!) in that distinction.
16

26

21

23.9

24.6

25.6

.523

.503

31.3%

11.3%

42.6%

-6.3%

-3.9%

Buster Posey has hit fourth, fifth, and ninth (??) until yesterday when he hit third. This is progress.
17

26

21

26.8

27.6

27.5

.519

.499

13.9%

9.8%

23.7%

1.6%

6.6%

As you'd expect, Carlos Gonzalez has a heavy home/road split. However, this season, he's hitting much better on the road. Carlos Gonzalez says take your preconceptions elsewhere, friend!
18

21

24

20.8

21.3

21.0

.470

.490

2.8%

5.7%

8.4%

-0.9%

1.3%

Filling in for the injured Chris Sale, Hector Santiago faced the bottom four of Boston's lineup a combined nine times. He struck out the first eight.
19

19

26

18.8

21.2

21.0

.508

.488

17.8%

8.9%

26.7%

3.3%

-12.6%

The Dodgers won! That means they can't fire Don Mattingly which means Mattingly has one more day to run naked across the Dodger Stadium infield while shouting obscenities at ownership and the front office. Try to imagine Vin Scully announcing that!
20

20

27

19.0

22.1

22.5

.459

.479

1.2%

2.5%

3.7%

-0.2%

-6.9%

If the Mariners hadn't lost any games, they'd be undefeated. True fact!
21

19

27

18.6

17.4

18.7

.453

.472

0.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1.3%

-1.1%

Yesterday Jose Bautista grew his OPS by 70 points. What did you do?
22

24

23

20.4

20.1

20.4

.491

.471

24.0%

16.9%

40.8%

2.7%

-15.5%

How good is Bryce Harper? Trick question! He's better than good!
23

18

27

21.9

23.5

23.6

.486

.466

0.5%

2.8%

3.3%

-1.0%

-4.0%

It's hard to win when your three and four hitters strike out six times in eight plate appearances, but the Cubs pulled it off. No they didn't.
24

21

25

20.8

20.8

21.1

.462

.443

2.6%

1.6%

4.2%

-1.2%

-1.2%

This Holiday season, the Padres have one thing to be thankful for: the Dodgers.
25

23

24

19.9

20.5

20.2

.460

.440

5.3%

4.8%

10.1%

0.5%

0.7%

Cliff Lee shut out the Marlins or, in other words, Cliff Lee is not dead.
26

18

25

19.4

17.8

19.0

.416

.436

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

-1.1%

Vance Worley started and 3 2/3 innings later, not only was he out of the game, but he was out of the major leagues.
27

18

27

18.8

20.0

21.3

.455

.435

0.2%

1.7%

1.9%

-1.2%

-3.9%

If the Brewers season keeps going like this they may have to trade Yuniesky Betancourt.
28

17

27

18.3

17.9

17.7

.444

.424

1.2%

1.4%

2.6%

-1.0%

-2.1%

How good is Matt Harvey? Last night he gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings. It was the second worst start of his career.
29

14

33

15.0

13.3

15.1

.346

.364

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have given up 274 runs, worst in baseball, or, as their mother would say, 30th best!
30

13

34

14.3

12.0

11.9

.338

.321

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Wikipedia says Billy the Marlin is eight feet tall and weighs 250 pounds. There's your Miami Marlins All Star representative, people!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


8 comments have been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

Perhaps I can interest the Rangers in one gently used, but very gritty Ramon Ortiz?

May 23, 2013 07:19 AM
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BernieMac
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Do you actually watch any games?! The Angels 12th ahead of all the NL West teams is a joke. They have a high priced, under-performing lineup, no bullpen and their catching is a disaster. Hank Conger might be the worst defensive catcher I've ever seen in the big leagues. AL teams with 9 of the top 12 spots? Does BP pay you? I pay for smart, informed info on BPO, not this!

Bernie Mac

May 23, 2013 09:33 AM
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Nathan Aderhold

Matt doesn't rank the teams, he just provides the witty banter.

May 23, 2013 10:40 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Nathan is correct. The teams are ranked by Adjusted Hit List factor, which uses stats other than wins and losses as you can see here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4383

May 23, 2013 10:50 AM
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Llarry

It always amazes me how many people get all uptight over the HitList as if it's supposed to be some grand oracle of Baseball Knowledge (and as if their entire year's subscription value is tied up in one day's numbers...).

The list does a fine job of highlighting teams whose results don't quite match their underlying performance, for better or worse. The aforementioned witty banter is amusing, and occasionally holds little nuggets of useful observation.

I'm satisfied.

May 23, 2013 12:04 PM
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NYYanks826

Seriously, how many times does this have to be explained? There seems to be something like 4-5 people a week who make comments like this. Start paying attention before making comments like this!

May 23, 2013 14:19 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

We've helpfully added a disclaimer at the top which should make this more clear. Hopefully it will clear up any lingering confusion.

May 23, 2013 14:50 PM
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rsjanabasis

Yes, but we can't argue with a computer. Someone needs to step up and take the blame for ranking the Phillies 5 spots below the Mariners. It's called "the Hit List", after all.

Haul the programmer out here so we can yell at him.

May 23, 2013 18:02 PM
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