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Prospectus Hit List for May 13



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 10 Hit List for May 14
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Zero Chris Sale puns, guaranteed.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

24

13

22.9

24.0

23.0

.593

.612

82.2%

6.1%

88.3%

2.4%

3.8%

Nelson Cruz in the last week: .174/.200/.565. Now that's a week.
2

20

15

22.8

24.9

24.2

.618

.636

76.6%

12.4%

89.0%

-1.3%

-2.2%

For Mother's Day, Jose Valverde got his mother a fastball and another fastball and actually nothing but fastballs.
3

23

13

20.1

19.5

19.2

.567

.587

61.3%

22.6%

83.9%

3.8%

11.7%

Sir, I don't see Vernon Wells on this All-Star ballot. Or this one. Sigh, just re-print them all and I'll be back in 30 minutes.
4

21

16

20.9

20.9

20.5

.540

.520

47.9%

18.0%

65.9%

-1.9%

-0.3%

April showers bring May Upton slumps. (The brothers are both homerless and hitting under .200 each.) (That's the joke.)
5

22

16

22.4

21.8

21.1

.564

.544

42.4%

30.3%

72.7%

-0.1%

-2.0%

Between Shin-Soo Choo (.451) and Joey Votto (.444), the Reds lineup is a veritable on-baserers' row.
6

20

17

17.1

17.0

17.2

.508

.488

42.1%

15.9%

58.1%

-3.0%

1.6%

Gio Gonzalez had a perfect game into just the sixth, which given the recent pitching performance this year is downright embarrassing.
7

23

15

21.0

20.9

21.2

.542

.522

40.8%

17.0%

57.8%

5.4%

1.8%

Marco Scutaro owns the longest active hitting streak at 13, and now we'll see if one can jinx a 13-game hitting streak.
8

23

13

22.7

20.8

20.9

.562

.542

39.6%

28.1%

67.8%

-4.7%

9.4%

Wainwright, Miller ... their best starting pitchers are all old-timey professions. (A Westbrook was someone who mined small rivers for laudanum, probably.)
9

21

17

21.6

20.3

20.9

.535

.515

24.7%

23.0%

47.7%

-9.2%

4.0%

It might be time to consider Heath Bell may not be a viable candidate to close baseball games.
10

15

21

14.6

17.7

17.6

.513

.493

23.6%

16.1%

39.7%

7.5%

-8.2%

We are a happier country when a Van Slyke is in the major leagues hitting home runs.
11

22

16

21.1

22.6

22.0

.553

.573

19.0%

35.4%

54.3%

-6.6%

-16.6%

"What about energy drinks? Do you use those?" Dan Shaughnessy asks David Ortiz in a fit of desperation.
12

20

15

20.4

21.0

20.6

.542

.562

16.3%

26.1%

42.4%

0.4%

17.9%

They're 6-1 against Cy Young Award winners this year, so be sure to throw all the No. 5 starters you can grab at them.
13

21

16

20.1

19.5

19.9

.522

.502

14.8%

22.1%

36.8%

1.5%

9.6%

Imagine a chef coming into your house, taking your leftovers, cooking a new meal out of it, and having it taste decent. That's what the Pirates are, basically.
14

19

18

19.6

19.7

20.6

.532

.552

11.9%

24.0%

35.9%

4.1%

9.4%

The last time they swept the Padres was in 2004, when they were called the Devil Rays, making the mascot allegory a bit more enticing.
15

20

17

21.2

22.6

22.1

.522

.502

9.1%

9.5%

18.6%

1.7%

-6.1%

What's more interesting: Jorge De La Rosa no-hitting the Cardinals into the seventh, or that his name literally means George of the Pink?
16

19

20

19.6

19.3

18.6

.501

.521

8.7%

13.3%

22.1%

-2.4%

-14.8%

Their starting rotation kept them in games last year, but this year a 5.17 ERA is fifth worst in the majors.
17

23

15

22.2

21.6

21.4

.525

.545

7.5%

20.6%

28.1%

2.9%

5.2%

Advertising for starting pitching help on Craigslist started out as a joke, but...
18

14

23

15.0

16.2

15.8

.481

.501

6.4%

14.3%

20.6%

-1.3%

1.3%

With just one hit on Sunday, the pink bats didn't work out for them, which means it's time to grind them into splinters and re-sell it as cotton candy.
19

18

21

16.6

16.7

16.6

.457

.437

5.5%

5.1%

10.6%

2.8%

-1.4%

May has not been kind to Ryan Howard, but he did have the game-winning hit yesterday. So that evens out, right?
20

18

16

18.1

16.3

16.8

.494

.514

5.3%

11.6%

16.9%

-3.3%

-14.9%

Swept in Yankee Stadium, just like that fortune teller said. They gotta start bringing in more positive influences to speak to the team.
21

14

20

15.4

14.7

14.2

.459

.439

4.4%

3.4%

7.8%

-1.3%

-4.7%

If Matt Harvey starts losing games, the Mets can always just turn themselves into a cupcake shop.
22

18

20

16.7

18.4

18.5

.473

.493

2.7%

6.1%

8.8%

0.8%

1.1%

They haven't lost a series since April 22-24 against ... Houston, for some reason.
23

15

20

15.1

16.3

17.1

.466

.446

1.8%

4.6%

6.4%

0.4%

-4.7%

Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura are first and second in National League batting average. They must be calculating batting average differently this year.
24

16

21

16.1

15.2

15.7

.447

.427

1.8%

2.0%

3.8%

-0.5%

-0.2%

Their home run leader is Will Venable with five, which means they're going to try and win with something else besides home runs.
25

15

22

17.0

19.0

19.1

.480

.460

1.4%

5.0%

6.4%

1.2%

1.3%

Scott Feldman doesn't look like a pitcher who can shut down the Nationals' bats, or someone that was born in Hawaii, but what do any of us know.
26

15

20

16.0

15.3

15.2

.456

.475

1.4%

4.0%

5.5%

1.4%

-1.2%

Both of Chris Sale's career complete games have come against the AL West, which can only stir up realignment rumors.
27

17

17

17.1

16.0

17.1

.449

.469

0.4%

1.1%

1.5%

-0.6%

0.3%

Those are some rather sexy .463/.551/.707 numbers for Joe Mauer in May. (No home runs this month, though.)
28

15

24

14.7

13.2

14.7

.436

.456

0.4%

2.4%

2.7%

-0.2%

-1.0%

They scored a season-high 12 runs and clobbered five home runs for the second time this year, which means they're back on track to win the World Series.
29

11

27

12.3

11.0

10.7

.351

.333

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

Their RBI leader over the past week: Derek Dietrich. You just learn a new name with this team all the time.
30

10

28

11.6

10.2

11.5

.336

.354

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Real men are allowed to cry only when watching "Braveheart" or looking at Phil Humber's season numbers.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


13 comments have been left for this article.
CraigB

I'm not sure why you give so little love to the Cards. And I'm a Pirates' fan.

May 13, 2013 08:09 AM
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BP staff member Matt Sussman

Formulas don't hate, they regulate.

May 13, 2013 11:11 AM
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+3

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Ogremace

Doesn't seem like he's dishing out anything here. And the ranking is computed, not selected.

May 13, 2013 16:07 PM
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Isaac Dix

Awesome! The brewers comment was really funny

May 13, 2013 10:38 AM
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NYYanks826

The Yankees swept the Royals in KC, not at Yankee Stadium.

May 13, 2013 10:44 AM
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BP staff member Matt Sussman

Boy, that fortune teller was pretty awful!

(Sorry.)

May 13, 2013 11:10 AM
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alarconfj
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Matt, your AL/east coast bias is just too obvious. Your top 7 teams are AL and you give the SF Giants no respect by rating them 10th, and third in the NL behind the Cards and Reds. You need to stay up later so you can see what good baseball teams look like.

May 13, 2013 11:14 AM
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-5

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BP staff member Matt Sussman

I stay up much later than I should, and all rankings are 100 percent formula-based.

May 13, 2013 11:41 AM
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BP staff member Matt Sussman

I stay up much later than I should, and all rankings are 100 percent formula-based.

May 13, 2013 11:41 AM
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0

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BP staff member Matt Sussman

I stay up much later than I should, and all rankings are 100 percent formula-based.

May 13, 2013 11:43 AM
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DetroitDale

For Nelson Cruz.. "now that's a week" shouldn't that be spelled with an "a"

May 13, 2013 12:03 PM
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bobbygrace

Why do you continue to let AHLF rank the teams? He displays a clear Melmac bias.

May 13, 2013 13:05 PM
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+1

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Ogremace

I don't get why people come and read this page without any prior knowledge of what it is. This is not a selection job by BP or any writer, it's a formula derived list. Should be obvious from the page, especially so if you read what AHLF is. But I guess people just like to peruse lists and then ramble on about the their merits without any knowledge. Sigh.

May 13, 2013 16:09 PM
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+3

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