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Prospectus Hit List for May 8



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 7 Hit List for May 9
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The only thing you'll need to read today, unless you're something like a doctor.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

19

11

20.2

21.7

20.9

.629

.647

83.4%

9.7%

93.1%

1.2%

3.1%

Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder have OPS's over 1.000. Other than Torii Hunter's .885 no Tigers regular is over .760.
2

19

13

18.9

21.2

20.8

.544

.524

16.0%

12.5%

28.6%

3.7%

14.4%

Carlos Gonzalez OPS at home: .958. Carlos Gonzalez OPS on the road: 1.039.
3

20

13

19.8

20.8

19.8

.581

.600

72.5%

9.3%

81.8%

-0.4%

0.4%

Adrian Beltre is hitting only .234/.285/.422 but he still flips out when people touch his head so it's alright.
4

21

12

20.0

20.2

19.9

.574

.594

40.1%

30.2%

70.3%

-2.1%

3.1%

It's not a Red Sox baseball season without two Boston players running full speed into each other. Happy Red Sox baseball season, everyone!
5

19

13

19.7

19.9

19.9

.564

.544

50.5%

17.5%

68.0%

-1.0%

-2.8%

Braves hitters have struck out 297 times, most in the National League. Still though, the Upton trade was pretty good.
6

19

15

19.8

19.8

19.0

.563

.543

46.4%

27.0%

73.5%

1.1%

5.7%

The Reds are 9-5 in one-run games. In all other games they are 10-10.
7

16

14

17.6

18.6

17.8

.543

.563

9.1%

25.8%

34.9%

6.8%

12.2%

After last night's 1-0 win, the Indians have scored one run four times this season. They are 2-2 when that happens.
8

20

13

19.3

18.4

18.0

.522

.541

8.6%

17.2%

25.8%

3.0%

9.1%

Remember when we all thought Matt Wieters was Johnny Bench? Turns out he's just Matt Wieters. Sometimes though, like last night, that's enough.
9

18

16

18.6

18.0

17.3

.519

.539

18.1%

17.3%

35.3%

-0.3%

-3.7%

Jed Lowrie's batting average has dropped over 100 points in the last 15 games to .303. Don't cry for him though. He's still got the third-best OPS of any shortstop in baseball.
10

18

15

19.1

17.8

18.3

.540

.520

29.9%

20.2%

50.1%

4.2%

-1.0%

The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in extra innings but 7-6 in one-run games. Have four drinks of whiskey, spin around three times, and figure that one out.
11

20

12

20.5

17.1

16.9

.546

.526

33.5%

25.2%

58.6%

-4.2%

14.3%

Matt Carpenter has been a revelation if by “revelation” you mean “entirely adequate.”
12

13

20

14.8

16.8

16.9

.475

.455

1.8%

4.6%

6.4%

0.2%

-1.7%

Anthony Rizzo has a .624 OPS with the bases empty, a .000 OPS with the bases loaded, but a .878 OPS overall. What I'm saying here is he doesn't like chocolate or vanilla. He prefers strawberry.
13

19

14

16.7

16.0

16.2

.514

.494

28.5%

15.9%

44.4%

-6.1%

0.9%

During last night's game Pablo Sandoval mistakenly swung at a passing airplane. He hit it for a double.
14

15

19

13.8

15.7

15.7

.459

.479

2.4%

4.5%

6.8%

-1.0%

-0.1%

Losing to the Pirates isn't nearly the insult it used to be, not that it'll take long to come up with something else insulting to the Mariners. Like, they're the only team with a losing record against Houston.
15

18

13

16.4

15.5

15.4

.544

.564

42.9%

26.7%

69.6%

-2.2%

-6.0%

The starting lineup for the New York Yankees last night was Ichiro, Jayson Nix, Robinson Cano, Vernon Wells, Ben Francisco, Lyle Overbay, someone named “Nelson,” Chris Stewart, and Hiroki Kuroda. They scored zero runs. Sometimes you can predict baseball.
16

18

14

16.2

15.4

15.8

.505

.485

14.5%

18.1%

32.6%

2.8%

1.8%

Andrew McCutchen has 12 hits in his last six games. McCrushen.
17

14

18

15.8

15.4

16.3

.505

.525

7.1%

14.9%

22.0%

-2.6%

-10.9%

The Rays used six pitchers in last night's loss. Their ERAs: 4.66, 11.25, 7.36, 5.63, 2.51, 5.40. And yes, the guy with the 2.51 ERA gave up two runs and got the loss.
18

15

16

14.5

15.0

15.3

.477

.458

3.8%

7.6%

11.4%

2.1%

-9.2%

Welcome to Bad Ideas That Inexplicably Worked Out Perfectly! Today’s episode: Yuniesky Betancourt playing first base!
19

17

15

14.6

14.9

15.1

.508

.488

34.8%

18.6%

53.4%

-2.7%

7.3%

The Nationals are the only team in baseball to have a winning record and a negative run differential.
20

17

12

16.3

14.8

15.2

.512

.532

6.1%

21.3%

27.5%

-1.9%

4.4%

Luke Hochevar, now a reliever, has 12 strikeouts and three walks in 11 1/3 innings. A reliever isn't what you want from your first overall pick, but it's better than nothing, which is what Hochevar was previously.
21

13

19

12.0

14.6

14.7

.494

.474

22.7%

14.4%

37.1%

-4.1%

-28.6%

Nick Punto hit his 17th homer. That's 17th career homer. Still, it's 17 more than you've hit. Unless you are virtually any major-league hitter ever.
22

16

18

14.1

14.3

14.4

.462

.442

7.6%

7.4%

15.0%

2.4%

-5.1%

Not sure what's stranger, that Kyle Kendrick is better than Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum, or that that's not much of a compliment.
23

13

16

14.5

14.0

13.8

.485

.465

7.1%

7.7%

14.8%

1.1%

2.7%

The White Sox were the businessmen on lunch break and Matt Harvey was the batting cage marked “Very Fast.”
24

15

18

14.6

14.0

14.7

.455

.435

2.8%

3.1%

5.9%

0.4%

1.7%

The Padres have won three in a row. The parade is this Thursday.
25

14

15

14.3

13.8

14.8

.446

.465

0.3%

1.5%

1.8%

0.9%

0.9%

Are the Twins any good this year? Justin MorNOOOO. [drops mic]
26

11

21

12.7

13.5

13.5

.471

.491

7.1%

12.7%

19.8%

-2.2%

-10.1%

C.J. Wilson struck out 12 and walked just two. He also gave up seven runs and lost to the Astros, but we're focusing on the positive.
27

13

18

13.7

12.7

12.8

.444

.464

1.1%

4.8%

5.9%

-0.5%

-0.4%

The White Sox were nearly no-hit by Matt Harvey. I feel like this won't be the only time we mention no-hitters in reference to either Harvey or the White Sox.
28

13

21

12.5

12.1

13.2

.442

.462

1.3%

4.1%

5.4%

1.4%

-2.1%

The Jays won last night to raise their record to 13-21. Clearly this is all a paean to the year 1321 when the Grand Duchy of Lithuania defeated Prince Stanislav of Kiev at the Battle on the Irpen River.
29

10

24

11.3

10.6

10.7

.364

.346

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.3%

The Marlins have played 34 games. They've scored three or fewer runs in 24 of those games. Their record in those games is 4-20. This looks like a long season.
30

9

24

9.7

8.9

10.2

.337

.356

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are the non-alcoholic light beer of baseball. Not only are they terrible, they're pointless.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


11 comments have been left for this article.
Shaun P.

Was the Battle of Irpen mention just a thing that worked conveniently given the date you were trying to use, or a Christina Kahrl homage? Or both?

May 08, 2013 07:34 AM
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rreading

"The Astros are the non-alcoholic light beer of baseball. Not only are they terrible, they're pointless."

Always love the hit list!

May 08, 2013 08:43 AM
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APer930

After having just taken a history of Russia course this past semester, the battle of Irpen reference made my day. At least the Marlins and Astros not getting of 20+ wins for a while allow for more history jokes this month

May 08, 2013 08:48 AM
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gregarakaki

Matt,

What is the criteria for your rankings? I mean the Padres aren't the best team in the league, but they are 7-3 over their last ten and are 1.5 games in front of the Dodgers and yet they can't even sniff the Dodgers in your rankings?

I realize this is self-serving because I've had to put up with a lot of guff from the Dodger fans in the office, but can you show the Padres some love?

May 08, 2013 09:52 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

The rankings are generated by a formula, not by me. I merely write the (occasionally) witty quips. The rankings are based on Adjusted Hit List Factor. You can read about Hit List Factor by hovering your cursor over the heading and clicking on the article linked there. Hovering your cursor over any of the headings will give you an explanation of what they are as well.

Hope that answers your question and thanks for reading!

May 08, 2013 10:03 AM
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sgturner65

I did read that explanation and consider it inadequate. It seems silly to me that batters' performances only in Interleague games should have a weighted factor that results in a swing of .040 in the standings. It doesn't make sense to me. Especially so at a time when the "inferior" league is ahead of the "superior" league in games this season.

Somebody needs to adjust the formula.

May 08, 2013 10:26 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

There's an entire article by Jay Jaffe linked there under Hit List Factor. Did you read that? It explains Hit List Factor in detail. The adjustment is (comparatively at least) relatively minor and based on historical performances.

The article I'm referring to and that is linked to above is here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4383

I hope you find it helpful. If you have questions beyond that I'd be happy to answer them as best I can or to track down an answer from someone smarter than me (pretty much everyone at BP) if I'm unable to answer.

May 08, 2013 16:28 PM
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sgturner65

Matt,I have no problem with the Hit List Factor. My problem is understanding the AHLF. I see nothing in that article that explains the adjustment for the quality of the leagues. Why are NL teams winning percentages chopped by roughly .020 and AL teams credited with that same amount?

My original question, like the ones from Monday, seems to have disappeared. The NL had a lead of 19-17 over the AL in Interleague games going into action today. I also pointed out that if it's based on past years, that an adjustment for the Astros moving to the AL seems necessary since they have 23 less wins than the next worse team since the beginning of 2011.

I see that my questions so far have given me a -2 and I'm no sure what is taking place here. I thought I was asking a reasonable question.

May 08, 2013 17:28 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I think it's a reasonable question. If you're getting minused it might be because of the way people are perceiving your tone. Just a guess. I have no problem with the question or the way you've presented it.

My understanding, and I'm not the creator here nor do I update the numbers, is that the adjustment is based on historical matchups. Because the Hit List ranks all of MLB, there has to be an adjustment and the AL has been the stronger league by, I believe, a good margin over the past decade, roughly speaking.

As for the Astros moving, I'm not sure about that. I'd be happy to ask for you though.

May 08, 2013 18:25 PM
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sgturner65

I certainly apologize for the tone but I've had three comments disappear from the two times I've tried to ask this question, on Monday and today.

I understand that the AL has a .525 record over the years vs. the NL but believe the Houston switch should cause everything to be swept off the table. They were 10-20 vs. the AL during 2011-12.

I would love for you to ask about how their switch has affected the formula, if it has. Thanks for offering.

May 08, 2013 20:42 PM
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gweedoh565

And what about this global warming stuff? It doesn't make sense to me. Has anyone ever heard of SUMMER???

May 08, 2013 13:48 PM
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