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Prospectus Hit List for May 6



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 3 Hit List for May 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Baseball's a joke.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

19

12

16.6

16.3

16.4

.534

.514

37.1%

18.9%

55.9%

4.4%

20.1%

There's no polite way to ask Hunter Pence to stop building hovels in right field.
2

20

11

20.0

16.4

16.0

.545

.525

33.9%

24.4%

58.3%

2.6%

15.7%

So far, Adam Wainwright has won four games and walked three batters.
3

18

13

18.2

20.3

19.8

.538

.518

10.1%

14.6%

24.7%

-1.7%

12.9%

Pitcher Josh Outman made six outs and four "non-outs." Dude, just be yourself.
4

17

10

15.5

14.2

14.5

.522

.542

9.2%

22.6%

31.8%

3.3%

7.9%

Whoever on the Royals stole the Orioles' magic lamp and wished to win baseball games, good on you. Although one of you wished for snow in May.
5

20

11

20.0

20.8

19.9

.601

.620

74.1%

10.4%

84.5%

2.4%

6.7%

Odds are you or someone in your family struck out against Yu Darvish this season.
6

14

14

16.0

16.9

16.2

.532

.552

7.6%

16.9%

24.5%

-4.6%

6.7%

They found their missing Ezequiel Carrera underneath the couch, and as it always happens, they weren't looking for it at the time.
7

19

13

18.7

17.9

17.7

.521

.541

6.7%

16.2%

22.9%

3.0%

6.5%

A nice nickname for Manny Machado would be ManChad. Not good, but nice.
8

18

14

19.1

18.7

17.7

.566

.546

49.4%

25.2%

74.6%

3.1%

6.1%

Shin-Soo Choo has this recurring dream where he gets pelted by baseballs. I wonder what it means.
9

19

11

20.2

21.7

20.9

.628

.647

81.4%

9.8%

91.2%

0.7%

5.5%

If they fill up on nothing but wins over the Astros, they're going to spoil their dinner! I'm teasing, of course; it's impossible to spoil their dinner.
10

18

14

18.0

17.6

16.8

.528

.548

17.4%

19.5%

36.9%

4.7%

4.6%

Luke Montz had a nice series against the Yankees. Third catchers are the new smartphones.
11

18

12

18.5

19.0

18.8

.566

.546

47.7%

18.5%

66.2%

4.8%

3.9%

If Brian McCann comes up, does Evan Gattis stay in Atlanta? Or do they have a beard growing contest?
12

17

15

14.6

14.9

15.2

.509

.489

39.8%

16.7%

56.5%

3.0%

3.6%

Bryce Harper broke the cardinal rule of baseball: never be the first or last ejection from a third base umpire.
13

15

18

13.6

15.6

15.7

.465

.485

2.4%

5.4%

7.7%

-1.4%

0.6%

Hisashi Iwakuma ought to start the All-Star game, because it'll make for a dynamite trivia question in two years.
14

10

22

11.4

10.5

10.4

.375

.357

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.0%

Their 14 runs yesterday equals their run total the entire season! (This is an untrue stat that you believed for three seconds.)
15

8

24

9.1

8.5

9.9

.332

.350

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

They demonstrated the four types of losses against the Tigers: extra-inning, blown save, merciless blowout, and "miscellaneous."
16

20

11

19.4

19.3

19.1

.582

.601

39.3%

31.6%

70.9%

-3.0%

-0.2%

Never root for an injury, but if David Ortiz becomes re-injured and is out for the year, he could carry a hitting streak spanning three seasons.
17

13

18

12.7

12.3

13.2

.439

.420

1.5%

2.5%

4.0%

1.0%

-0.3%

They've won three straight series, and things are looking up. Way up.
18

13

14

12.8

12.7

13.6

.441

.461

0.1%

1.1%

1.2%

0.3%

-0.5%

I bet Trevor Plouffe was teased in school because of his name, as are most Trevors.
19

12

17

12.7

12.0

12.1

.449

.469

1.7%

5.0%

6.6%

-1.1%

-1.6%

Contrary to popular belief, the town has always been large enough to house two sad baseball teams.
20

11

20

12.9

15.2

15.2

.462

.442

1.6%

3.5%

5.1%

-1.5%

-2.6%

Maybe Carlos Marmol can be their first inning guy. Just get his appearance out of the way, then they know how many runs they need to score.
21

11

21

11.1

10.3

11.1

.426

.446

1.0%

2.8%

3.8%

0.8%

-2.9%

You never know where R.A. Dickey's knuckleball is going to land. Sometimes in the left field seats, sometimes the right field ones.
22

12

16

13.9

13.0

12.7

.476

.457

6.4%

6.1%

12.5%

-3.4%

-3.6%

There's no joke here, just a frowny face.
23

14

16

13.7

14.3

14.5

.473

.453

3.9%

7.2%

11.1%

-0.9%

-3.7%

Is there a *second* Kyle Lohse they can sign?
24

18

12

16.1

15.4

15.0

.551

.570

44.6%

27.5%

72.2%

-1.6%

-5.7%

They've scored just seven first-inning runs all season, dead last in the majors.
25

14

18

12.2

12.0

12.0

.443

.424

6.1%

5.9%

12.0%

-2.7%

-8.2%

This is the worst Roy Halladay we've ever seen. His name should be Roy Columbusday.
26

14

16

15.1

15.2

16.6

.519

.539

8.4%

18.1%

26.5%

0.6%

-9.9%

You laughed at your fortune teller when she said James Loney would be a batting title frontrunner in May. You shrugged it off as a small sample size.
27

17

14

15.4

14.6

14.9

.496

.476

11.1%

16.1%

27.2%

-3.9%

-10.9%

Russell Martin hit a home run yesterday (5/5), made his debut on 5/5 seven years ago, and his jersey number is 55. He also batted fifth and played third base (position No. 5). Turk Wendell is impressed with this consistency.
28

16

15

17.2

15.9

16.4

.527

.507

21.8%

22.0%

43.7%

-1.8%

-13.0%

Matt Reynolds has pitched 15 1/3 innings without allowing a run, most in the big leagues.
29

11

20

12.3

12.9

13.2

.471

.491

6.1%

13.2%

19.3%

-4.1%

-17.8%

Take away their sweep of Detroit and their other series win against Houston, and they have only six wins. Now take THOSE away, and they're winless!
30

13

17

11.9

14.5

14.6

.508

.488

29.5%

18.4%

47.9%

-3.0%

-19.8%

They employ Juan Uribe at first base on occasion, just to see if the rest of us are paying attention.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
sgturner65

I don't understand how the Cardinals can be ranked as low as 12th on this list.

They are tied with the Red Sox and Rangers for the best record in MLB despite having played 19 of their 31 games on the road.

They also have the second best margin in MLB in runs scored vs. runs allowed.

Help me understand your ranking mechanism.

May 06, 2013 15:36 PM
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BP staff member Matt Sussman

You can mouse over the headers for explanations/links on all the calculations.

May 06, 2013 16:22 PM
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mhmckay

short answer -- it's a conspiracy! the system hates NL teams as "inferior". The Indians, at 14-14, are 7 places better than the Cardinals? Really?

PS -- Red Sox fan here. Not a NL apologist

May 06, 2013 20:55 PM
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sgturner65

I was thinking the same thing. The AL is ahead in the series 17-14 (now 17-15) and the winning pct. is adjusted by 20 points per team. Huh?

May 06, 2013 21:59 PM
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sgturner65

The league correction seems to be pretty extreme, considering the AL was only three games over .500 going into play tonight. It will be interesting to see how much the Cubs win over the Rangers tonight diminishes that correction.

May 06, 2013 21:55 PM
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BP staff member Matt Sussman

"The league quality adjustment is based on historical performance of batters against pitchers from the various leagues (primarily in interleague play, but also players who switch teams midseason)."

So it's not just this season, but recent seasons.

May 07, 2013 10:55 AM
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