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Prospectus Hit List for August 22



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for August 19
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Angels comment, my friend.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

78

45

83.3

87.3

86.1

.680

.676

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs' magic number is down to "don't blow this or we're moving the franchise to Bismarck."
2

73

50

76.9

79.5

78.6

.626

.621

99.5%

0.4%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.1%

National League qualified hitters to sport a .600 slugging percentage in a single season in the last five years: Daniel Murphy this year (so far), Bryce Harper last year, and end of list.
3

69

54

72.6

75.9

76.2

.597

.602

48.2%

41.2%

89.4%

-0.1%

19.6%

He has yet to record a pitching victory this season, so I suppose Henry 0-Wins is a viable name for him.
4

71

51

71.7

71.7

70.7

.584

.589

95.5%

2.6%

98.2%

0.9%

1.7%

Tyler Naquin's walk-off inside-the-park home run is a clear sign that our terms are overhyphenated. If this was Europe we may call that a golden live try.
5

70

54

72.0

73.4

73.9

.583

.588

47.0%

42.6%

89.6%

-1.1%

5.7%

You know the Blue Jays are run by 10-year-old because you keep asking them if they've moved Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen yet and they keep saying "yeah, yeah, I'm getting to it" then overcompensate by optioning him to Single-A.
6

68

55

67.9

74.1

73.5

.576

.571

67.6%

24.6%

92.2%

2.6%

-1.4%

Remember that scene in The Simpsons where all those kids were hurt by the trampoline? No idea why I just thought of it now, during the Dodgers comment. I just thought it was a very poignant scene.
7

66

57

69.7

73.0

72.2

.571

.566

0.1%

72.9%

73.0%

2.4%

17.5%

True to form, Mike Leake hasn't been carrying the Cardinals' pitching staff, nor has he been a liability. Quite simply he has been leake average.
8

68

56

67.3

69.3

69.0

.552

.547

32.2%

44.9%

77.1%

-7.2%

-10.9%

Notable people with the nickname Shark: Jeff Samardzija, Greg Norman half of Katy Perry's backup dancers. Maybe it's not such a good nickname after all.
9

66

57

66.8

65.7

65.4

.536

.541

12.7%

33.4%

46.2%

-8.1%

3.3%

Dae-ho Lee was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma mostly to find out what a "Rainier" is and write a 500-word report about it.
10

64

60

66.9

65.7

64.5

.526

.531

2.2%

13.6%

15.8%

4.1%

0.8%

Astros "rookie" Yulieski Gurriel had 428 strikeouts in 15 international seasons. By comparison, Jason Castro has struck out 70 more times since 2012, in one-third the plate apperances.
11

65

59

62.9

64.9

64.9

.520

.525

3.8%

23.1%

26.9%

7.4%

-17.6%

The Erick Aybar trade will be a success in that it guarantees he can never bunt in a Justin Verlander start to break up a no-hitter. Probably.
12

67

56

63.3

61.8

62.3

.517

.522

4.4%

24.0%

28.4%

-3.6%

-26.9%

When Orioles pitching gave up 27 runs in a two-game span, you wonder if they tore a hole in the space-time continuum and had to pitch agains nine 1996 Brady Andersons.
13

73

52

62.6

59.8

59.9

.511

.516

85.0%

9.9%

94.9%

-0.2%

7.1%

The Rangers signing Carlos Gomez is a clear sign they just want to fill their outfield with players that other teams are still paying.
14

65

59

63.5

64.7

64.2

.519

.514

0.4%

30.7%

31.1%

4.2%

1.2%

There's an outside chance Giancarlo Stanton's injury will heal in time for the Marlins' playoff run, unless the Marlins are not looking to be a playoff team, in which the groin injury will magically take the rest of the offseason to heal.
15

60

64

63.7

63.7

63.6

.506

.501

0.2%

1.6%

1.8%

0.4%

1.1%

It sure was nice of the Cubs to spot them seven runs in the first inning when the Rockies didn't give them anything. This is why you always carry around some spare gift cards in your wallet, just in case.
16

62

62

60.8

63.1

63.4

.503

.498

0.2%

13.2%

13.4%

1.6%

-7.1%

Jeurys Familia is three saves away from the Mets single season record, previously set by Armando Benitez and himself. So watch out, half of yourself. The other half of yourself is coming up fast.
17

63

60

58.4

59.7

60.7

.491

.496

0.4%

4.0%

4.4%

-1.4%

1.0%

I know tradition is tradition, but there are such things as extenuating circumstances, and this would really be a good couple of months to let players have names on their jerseys.
18

52

70

59.5

61.3

62.3

.482

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

To anyone who says all you need on a team is starting pitching, may I present the 2016 Tampa Bay Rays.
19

64

60

59.4

56.8

57.2

.479

.484

0.6%

5.1%

5.7%

2.0%

5.4%

With a strong eight-game winning streak, the demise of the Royals was perhaps premature, because if they win 34 of their last 40 games they're just as good as last year's team.
20

62

59

60.7

56.0

56.4

.486

.481

0.0%

11.6%

11.6%

-3.8%

-0.4%

Ryan Vogelsong had another close brush with a fastball to his fast while squaring to bunt, so he'll certainly spend every four days between starts working on PowerPoints to argue for the designated hitter. And, if time, a third wild card spot.
21

59

64

56.6

54.7

55.6

.459

.464

0.1%

0.4%

0.5%

0.1%

-0.1%

Tim Anderson strikeout-to-walk ratio update: he struck out six times in the past week while walking twice and okay now that he's figuring out how to take ball four this really isn't necessary anymore.
22

52

72

57.6

51.3

52.4

.430

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With baseball returning to the Olympics in 2020, the Angels have four years to learn about the sport and field a team.
23

49

75

52.4

54.9

54.6

.425

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Error: the optimistic Minnesota Twins comment from this weekend has not been found. It has either moved or is not available. Click here to go back to the Little Big League fanfic home page.
24

53

71

51.4

51.0

51.1

.416

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Danny Valencia reportedly injured Billy Butler in a clubhouse incident, causing Butler to miss a couple games. Clearly Valencia is just trying to help the team.
25

53

71

56.1

50.5

50.0

.423

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Adam Rosales has hit a career number of home runs (eight!) which means whichever team acquires him for cash considerations in the offseason is going to be happy with the transaction.
26

53

70

52.5

51.2

50.4

.421

.416

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sometimes you just have to bat Hernan Perez cleanup to see if people will stat noticing your team. Any other ideas?
27

51

73

49.7

51.7

53.3

.415

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Dave Stewart may have turned this team into a kindling pile but at least he didn't encourage his pitchers to bean opposing players for minor infractions, so call it a step forward.
28

58

67

49.6

48.1

48.5

.409

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Maikel Franco reached base three times despite his team being shutout, so he's got this whole Scott Rolen thing down pretty well.
29

53

70

51.0

43.9

44.9

.392

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's mathematically impossible to have fewer RBI than home runs, but that doesn't mean Joey Votto won't try.
30

45

79

45.7

49.6

50.1

.384

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"Welcome to the team, Mike Aviles. Here's your number." Aviles was handed a jersey that simply said "DFA." Aviles felt this was elaborate and unnecessary.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
lmarighi

I laughed at the Braves comment, and then felt sad for laughing at the misfortune of others. Damn you, Sussman!

Aug 22, 2016 16:15 PM
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