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Prospectus Hit List for May 3



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 2 Hit List for May 6
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Would it surprise you if we told you the Astros were at the top of the Hit List?

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

20

8

19.0

19.3

19.0

.609

.627

40.5%

34.5%

75.0%

1.8%

9.2%

Ryan Dempster is no longer third in baseball in K/9 so you can cancel that party and don't forget to call the clowns and tell them this time. We don't want them prancing around on the lawn honking their noses early on a Saturday again.
2

16

11

16.3

18.0

17.6

.600

.619

77.5%

9.7%

87.2%

1.6%

7.1%

The Tigers needed 14 innings to beat the Astros which is a bit like running a marathon against a toddler and then needing five extra miles to decide the winner.
3

13

16

11.9

12.0

12.0

.461

.441

10.0%

9.1%

19.1%

2.5%

6.2%

In a rotation with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels, guess who leads the Phillies starters in ERA? Hint: His name rhymes with Kyle Kendrik.
4

17

11

16.9

18.4

17.9

.533

.513

7.7%

9.7%

17.4%

0.2%

5.5%

Roy Oswalt signed with the Rockies. I assume he must think Colorado is close to Texas.
5

16

12

14.8

14.7

14.9

.530

.510

29.0%

19.9%

48.9%

1.3%

5.3%

'The Giants leading hitter is Barry Zito at .429. Is there nothing he can't sort of do?
6

17

11

17.0

13.3

13.3

.524

.504

29.4%

20.0%

49.4%

2.3%

5.0%

Jake Westbrook won his 100th game cementing his place in the Hall of Na-Ga-ha-Pa.
7

12

13

14.2

15.1

14.6

.529

.549

10.1%

15.1%

25.2%

-0.6%

4.6%

It has been revealed if the Indians finish in last place, they're going to move to Florida. So Corbin Bernsen is going to have to start fielding better.
8

15

14

12.7

13.0

13.0

.500

.480

36.7%

16.4%

53.1%

3.5%

4.3%

Dan Haren gave up just one run and one walk in eight innings. Doesn't he know he's terrible now? Someone should tell him.
9

17

10

14.7

14.1

13.8

.558

.578

44.9%

30.3%

75.1%

-1.4%

3.6%

Alex Rodriguez has been cleared for baseball activities, which means he's going to take a bat and walk into the living room where a group of his friends will loudly boo him.
10

17

12

17.0

16.2

16.4

.519

.539

4.2%

13.4%

17.6%

3.6%

2.8%

Over eight innings Chris Tillman's strikeouts equaled the number of hits he gave up. That'd be three. Chris Tillman is awesome?
11

13

17

11.8

14.1

14.4

.463

.483

3.3%

4.7%

8.0%

-0.7%

2.5%

The Mariners lead the league in grounding into double plays. How do you make a bobblehead out of that?
12

11

17

11.4

10.5

11.5

.435

.415

1.8%

2.4%

4.2%

0.3%

2.2%

The Padres are second to last in home runs in the National League. Better move the fences in. I suggest moving them a few feet past the infield.
13

11

17

12.0

14.2

14.0

.470

.450

3.2%

5.6%

8.8%

-1.8%

2.2%

The Cubs have announced plans to renovate Wrigley Field and part of the surrounding neighborhood. At least they're focusing on what matters.
14

14

13

13.7

14.2

14.2

.496

.476

7.2%

8.9%

16.1%

-2.4%

1.3%

Ryan Braun had two hits. Both were taken to an underground lair and left overnight whereupon they were declared invalid.
15

15

10

14.1

12.4

12.9

.509

.529

8.9%

16.4%

25.3%

-0.9%

1.1%

First it rained. Then it snowed. Then they cancelled the game. There's a metaphor in here someplace.
16

16

12

14.2

13.5

13.8

.504

.484

17.2%

16.0%

33.2%

0.4%

0.6%

Good news! The Pirates aren't even the worst offense in their own division! No way! They're second worst! (They're having t-shirts made.)
17

12

12

11.7

11.6

12.0

.446

.466

0.3%

1.1%

1.4%

0.0%

0.2%

The Twins have the fewest hits in baseball, which begs the question, no wait, actually it doesn't beg anything. We expected that.
18

8

21

8.7

7.8

8.1

.353

.335

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.0%

-0.1%

When he leads off Juan Pierre is batting .178/.213/.211. When he hits anywhere else it doesn't matter because he's still Juan Pierre.
19

8

21

9.7

8.9

10.1

.351

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Would you be surprised if I told you the Astros won last night? Well you should be surprised if I told you that because they lost.
20

16

13

16.4

15.8

15.3

.529

.549

20.1%

16.9%

37.0%

0.3%

-1.3%

In a show of solidarity, the A's have decided that if the Cubs don't get the renovations they want for Wrigley Field, not only will they support the Cubs move, but they will move too. To Wrigley Field.
21

12

15

12.1

11.8

11.8

.458

.478

3.1%

6.0%

9.2%

0.8%

-2.3%

Adam Dunn Update! Four plate appearances, two strikeouts, one walk aaaaaaaaaand... a single. So disappointing!
22

12

15

13.4

14.3

15.3

.522

.542

9.4%

20.2%

29.7%

0.4%

-2.9%

You have to feel for Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher previously known as Fausto Carmona, because on his tombstone it's going to read, "Here Lies Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher previously known as Fausto Carmona."
23

15

14

17.0

16.8

15.5

.555

.535

43.0%

22.0%

65.0%

-1.8%

-4.0%

Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo have walked or been hit by a pitch in 34 percent of their plate appearances.
24

11

15

13.2

12.9

12.3

.484

.464

6.7%

6.5%

13.2%

-0.4%

-6.3%

The Mets have grounded into the fewest double plays in the National League, which is a lot like saying, 'No, no, you don't smell that bad.'
25

17

11

17.1

17.6

16.7

.580

.599

63.1%

11.4%

74.6%

-2.5%

-6.5%

The Rangers just lost their first series of the year. Ah, memories, say the Astros.
26

17

11

17.2

17.1

16.8

.560

.540

46.5%

18.1%

64.6%

-2.6%

-6.6%

When the only run you score is a solo homer by Dan Uggla, that's not a good offensive night. Though really, it doesn't matter who hit the homer. Somehow it just sounds worse if it was Uggla.
27

15

13

15.4

14.7

15.4

.534

.514

23.3%

24.8%

48.1%

0.7%

-6.6%

The Diamondbacks lead the National League in sacrifice bunting with no outs. There is a marketing campaign in there somewhere.
28

10

19

10.0

8.9

9.9

.425

.444

1.0%

3.8%

4.8%

-0.5%

-6.6%

The Jays put Josh Johnson on the Disabled List, but that's totally negative. What they should have done is put him on the Differently Abled List.
29

13

14

10.7

13.1

13.2

.515

.495

38.1%

20.4%

58.5%

-2.2%

-9.0%

The Dodgers have been outscored by every National League team save Miami. That's enough of a joke on its own.
30

10

18

10.9

11.5

11.6

.473

.493

13.5%

16.4%

29.9%

-1.9%

-11.4%

You don't hear about Albert Pujols having a bad start because, even though he's hitting .245/.331/.427, this time last season he was hitting .202/.245/.279. Read more about it in his new book, titled Managing Expectations.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
bobbygrace

Why does the Hit List page get to look so much more futuristic than the rest of the Baseball Prospectus pages? Even the comments look more futuristic. I'm not sure that's fair.

May 03, 2013 07:10 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

We're on the cutting edge over here.

May 03, 2013 09:38 AM
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mblthd

So the June 9, 2014 Hit List should be coming out any day now?

May 03, 2013 10:09 AM
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Llarry Amrose

No, that came out last week. The next one will be August 17, 2016...

May 03, 2013 11:00 AM
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R.A.Wagman

I do like the new look, but would love to have the highlit "new comment" feature brought to this GUI.

May 03, 2013 19:21 PM
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Sharky

Matt, this is absolutely hilarious. I started reading the zingers at the bottom (easier targets) and worked my way up. The Brewers and Cubs blurbs were outstanding. The Padres writeup even better. Keep it up!

May 03, 2013 13:53 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

May 03, 2013 14:54 PM
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BillJohnson

I'd like to hear more about the methodology here, and in particular, what part of that methodology justifies having not one but two AL teams with sub-.500 records ranked above ANY National League team. Not that the internal rankings for the NL teams themselves seem to make much sense either, with two teams with winning records slotted #20 or below, but first things first.

May 03, 2013 16:24 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Hover your cursor over the headings. Articles explaining the methodology are linked to there.

May 03, 2013 19:09 PM
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