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Prospectus Hit List for September 23



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 19
Hit List updates are published Monday and Friday through the 2016 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Friday, Friday, gotta get down on Friday.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

97

55

101.6

108.3

106.6

.680

.676

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs are 521 games over .500 as a franchise, which is at least 522 more than I would have guessed.
2

89

64

94.6

99.0

98.9

.623

.628

99.4%

0.6%

100.0%

0.0%

3.8%

Winning eight straight on the road against division opponents is good but what else has this team done lately?
3

89

63

92.5

95.4

93.6

.609

.605

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Daniel Murphy has missed four straight games so some other random will have to hit .600 the rest of the way. My money is on Chris Heisey.
4

89

63

87.2

89.0

86.2

.578

.583

99.7%

0.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

The Indians have a nickname for Carlos Santana's father. They call him "Santana." Lord help me I'm serious.
5

87

66

86.0

91.7

91.9

.583

.578

99.6%

0.4%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

If Chase Utley had written "Falling Down" it wouldve been the story of a man who falls down and then gets back up, smiles, and goes about his business in professional and courteous manner.
6

83

69

84.7

86.9

87.3

.562

.567

0.6%

75.7%

76.4%

2.0%

6.1%

Jose Bautista moonwalked up the first base line after homering in the ninth Wednesday. It was a thriller of a moment, but probably dangerous, off the wall, and maybe even bad. He's not invincible.
7

80

72

82.2

85.8

85.0

.548

.543

0.0%

57.2%

57.2%

-5.9%

20.6%

The Cardinals are a half game behind the Giants and Mets for the Wild Card but with Mike Matheny on their side, what can go wrong?
8

81

72

83.1

85.1

85.2

.546

.542

0.4%

69.3%

69.7%

5.5%

-10.5%

Jeff Samardzija's nine strikeouts in seven scoreless innings A) helped the Giants remain in a Wild Card spot, and B) forced me to look up the correct spelling of 'Samardzija.'
9

82

70

77.8

81.1

79.9

.528

.533

0.3%

57.6%

57.8%

27.1%

30.7%

Good news: The Tigers are in the Wild Card after beating the Twins twice! Bad news: The Twins aren't going to make the playoffs.
10

81

72

81.3

79.7

79.4

.525

.530

0.0%

20.7%

20.7%

-15.3%

12.3%

Jose Altuve has played 37 games this season in which he did not get a hit. The Astros went 13-24 in those games. So, if they miss the playoffs, you'll know whose fault it was.
11

90

63

77.4

75.7

75.3

.520

.525

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rangers are 90-63 with a +9 run differential. That breaks the rules of mathematics almost as much as it breaks the rules of baseball.
12

80

72

80.6

78.1

77.4

.520

.525

0.0%

11.3%

11.3%

-0.6%

-19.2%

The sad truth: 30-year-old secretly racist career backup catchers are more employable than 30-year-old openly racist career backup catchers.
13

82

71

78.0

76.2

78.6

.514

.519

0.0%

31.0%

31.0%

-10.8%

-29.6%

Adam Jones was musing as to why the Orioles haven't been selling out, which makes me think he's never been to downtown Baltimore ever in his life.
14

81

72

78.9

80.1

80.1

.523

.518

0.0%

72.5%

72.5%

2.0%

-7.9%

Click on one Tim Tebow Mets t-shirt advertisement and now, on every page you load, there's no escaping the beautiful orange number 15. Stay woke, baseball fans!
15

79

73

74.6

77.2

79.7

.511

.516

0.0%

2.7%

2.7%

-2.3%

-4.2%

If Gary Sanchez continued his home run pace over a whole season (550 plate appearances) he'd hit 56 homers. That's how good Barry Bonds was.
16

73

80

77.8

77.7

76.8

.499

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Given their success with hitting and total failure with pitching, perhaps the Rockies can pitch by tossing the ball up and then hitting with a bat toward home plate.
17

76

77

74.6

75.0

74.7

.491

.486

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.9%

-2.6%

If you want to make the playoffs you probably shouldn't give up two homers to Matt Kemp. Also applies to teams who don't expect to make the playoffs.
18

65

87

73.0

75.1

77.3

.478

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Every time a Ray homers at Tropicana Field they play a horn sound which gets me excited because it also sounds like the noise you hear just before someone pushes the detonation button.
19

76

76

76.0

72.6

71.8

.488

.483

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.6%

0.1%

The Pirates traded for Phil Coke from the Yankees which is weird because we didn't know Phil Coke was on the Yankees. Maybe he wasn't but the Yankees traded him anyway.
20

72

80

71.7

70.7

71.2

.470

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a weird way Chris Sale is fighting for the relevancy of the whole franchise when he plays early-season tailor. A good effort but one that going 72-80 will snuff out every time.
21

77

76

73.0

66.8

67.6

.465

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.2%

After 17 straight stolen bases, Terrance Gore was thrown out for the first time Wednesday. The Royals won't make the playoffs but it would be nice if they didn't break all the nice things they got over the past two seasons.
22

67

86

72.6

64.3

65.7

.441

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mike Trout's only chance to win the MVP is to take control of the front office and do Mike Trout things. Godspeed, rightful winner!
23

69

84

70.5

67.6

68.0

.450

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When Craig Counsell argues with an umpire, does he wait to respond with his hands held way above his head and then, just before it's his turn to talk, drop them into a perfect speaking position?
24

66

86

66.2

65.4

65.8

.433

.438

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Khris Davis has more home runs (40) than walks (36). He also has more triples than stolen bases though so weird season.
25

62

91

61.7

67.0

67.4

.422

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I just closed my eyes and pulled, "The Braves are nails because they have the third best OPS in baseball over the second half of the season" out of my box of true but unused 2016 narratives. It's a big box.
26

64

88

62.2

63.5

65.2

.419

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Diamondbacks are 49-80 in nine-inning games, but 11-10 in extra inning and rain shortened games, in case you're wondering why owner Ken Kendrick is proposing to make the games three innings.
27

64

89

67.9

60.3

60.9

.414

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Padres used pitchers Brad Hand and Jose Torres putting them tantalizingly halfway to a really good 'Head, Shoulders, Knees, and Toes' joke.
28

55

98

61.2

63.6

64.4

.399

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Losing two games in one day isn't not the reason they're called the Twins.
29

69

84

60.5

58.7

58.7

.403

.399

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Phillies lost in the 11th inning last night which, credit them, is two more innings than it usually takes.
30

63

89

61.7

54.7

55.4

.386

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Was the 2016 Reds pitching staff the worst ever? Maybe, but once you reach the bottom 100 I bet people have stopped paying enough attention to know for sure.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
bhacking

The worst part of the Pirates picking up Phil Coke is they had to drop Tom Pepsi.

Sep 23, 2016 08:19 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
bpsinger

Are you implying that Gary Sachez is undeniably taking steroids??

Sep 23, 2016 22:13 PM
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-1

down_image
 
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