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Prospectus Hit List for April 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 17 Hit List for April 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

An extremely, extremely important fact about Ryan Braun and the Brewers.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

10

4

10.3

9.4

9.2

.611

.630

30.4%

29.8%

60.2%

2.6%

16.7%

Will Middlebrooks is hitting if you mean hitting in the sense that he is standing at the plate with a bat while the pitcher throws pitches to him. If you mean hitting in the sense where he gets hits, then no.
2

8

6

8.5

8.3

8.1

.556

.536

20.8%

27.5%

48.2%

-0.8%

-1.9%

Did you ever read Peanuts where Lucy would hold the football for Charlie Brown and he'd try to kick it and then at the last second, right before he could kick it, Kevin Towers would trade him to Atlanta where he'd hit eight homers in the first 14 games? That cartoon was weird.
3

9

6

6.8

6.7

6.6

.512

.492

35.7%

24.1%

59.8%

3.5%

-4.4%

The Nationals are back on track and since it’s the kind of track where they can beat one of the worst teams in baseball, expect a World Series win any day now.
4

12

4

11.1

10.4

9.9

.594

.613

29.4%

24.0%

53.5%

0.7%

7.1%

The A’s beat the Astros in what the experts are calling the world’s first “reverse reverse jinx”
5

4

10

4.4

5.7

5.9

.454

.474

15.5%

23.6%

39.1%

-1.1%

-19.6%

Not only do the Angels share a division with the Astros, but they have a similar record and have scored and given up a similar numbers of runs. Never let it be said the people of Los Angeles aren’t a right neighborly bunch.
6

12

2

11.6

11.7

11.2

.672

.654

47.4%

23.5%

70.9%

-0.4%

12.6%

Some may see Justin Upton’s .900 slugging percentage as a shot at Arizona, the team that traded him this offseason. To Upton though, he’s just doing his job, which is to take shots at Arizona, the team that traded him this offseason.
7

8

5

8.1

7.6

8.2

.590

.609

51.3%

22.2%

73.5%

2.5%

9.1%

Vernon Wells (.295/.380/.591) has been named the winner of the American Cynic Association’s “We [expletive] Knew It” award.
8

9

6

7.9

8.0

8.2

.536

.516

21.8%

21.9%

43.6%

-1.8%

-0.9%

Marco Scutaro perfectly illustrates the importance of lineup protection as he’s hitting in front of Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey, and has taken advantage to the tune of a .621 OPS. What? Oh, well clearly you haven’t played the game.
9

7

8

5.7

9.2

8.9

.545

.525

52.5%

19.7%

72.2%

-2.7%

-9.7%

Guess which team is leading baseball in dollars per win?
10

9

5

8.5

9.4

8.5

.592

.612

52.2%

19.4%

71.7%

0.2%

4.7%

The Rangers have scored 53 runs, 43 fewer than Oakland. This has to be an overly elaborate, long-term flash mob that both teams are in on.
11

5

9

5.1

4.5

4.7

.440

.460

9.5%

16.0%

25.5%

0.5%

-12.6%

How to remember Matt Kory’s pre-season predictions? Use this simple rule of thumb. Pull up the standings, then stand on your head. As the blood rushes to your head read the standings from bottom to top. See? The Rays are in first place! Then pass out.
12

8

7

9.3

9.8

9.2

.580

.560

56.3%

15.4%

71.7%

8.7%

-1.9%

It has been noted elsewhere, but it's worth noting here in a slightly different way: Joey Votto much walky-walky!
13

7

6

8.2

7.8

7.6

.540

.520

9.3%

13.9%

23.2%

0.1%

-0.6%

Matt Harvey didn't pitch so next comment please.
14

8

6

9.5

6.5

6.6

.526

.506

21.5%

13.3%

34.8%

-4.3%

1.9%

Shelby Miller’s start was ruined by him not being A.J. Burnett. But that’s okay, not being A.J. Burnett is more like a 24-hour cold than any kind of long-term illness. Unless you are A.J. Burnett in which case it’s incurable.
15

5

8

4.8

5.3

5.1

.444

.464

7.6%

12.5%

20.1%

-3.4%

-4.8%

It's a Hit List Quick Quiz! Jason Giambi hit a home run last night. This means: 1) The Indians are raffling off roster spots; 2) someone in the Indians' front office has invented a time machine; 3) Giambi has figured out a way to funnel 10 Five Hour Energy bottles into one at bat. "Where'd he go?" "Just follow the trail of eye blood."
16

8

6

8.1

7.1

7.2

.508

.528

6.2%

12.2%

18.4%

2.0%

-2.3%

Even though this is being written before Wednesday’s game, the Royals are 8-6 which means by the time you read this the Royals will still have a winning record. Right? They can’t screw that up, can they?
17

6

9

4.8

4.7

5.0

.431

.450

6.8%

12.0%

18.8%

-2.4%

-4.2%

Colby Rasmus is striking out in 40 percent of his plate appearances. Why? Personal challenge. He can do in 60 percent of his plate appearances what a normal hitter couldn’t do with 100 percent. Unless we’re talking about getting a haircut, then all bets are off.
18

6

9

5.1

5.4

6.0

.437

.418

7.4%

11.0%

18.4%

-6.7%

-4.0%

If you remove the decimal from his innings total, the six runs in 12 innings John Lannan allowed becomes palatable. If you don’t remove the decimal you’ll need the palate of a dead animal to enjoy it. Or you could just be a Mets fan.
19

7

8

7.4

7.4

6.8

.475

.495

5.4%

9.2%

14.6%

1.3%

-0.5%

Adam Dunn knows you can’t win the 2014 Comeback Player of the Year without first being the baseball equivalent of a flushing toilet this season. Operation Commode Cleanse activated!
20

7

7

6.3

5.7

6.0

.469

.449

12.2%

8.4%

20.6%

1.4%

6.4%

Yankees cast-off A.J. Burnett combined with Yankees cast-off Mark Melancon to shut down the Cardinals on one hit. When the plan works *kisses fingers* it makes you kiss your fingers.
21

10

4

8.7

9.3

8.4

.543

.524

3.5%

7.9%

11.4%

0.7%

6.6%

The highest scoring team in the National League, the Rockies have scored 37 runs at home and 45 on the road. Legit, right? They’ve played nine games on the road and five at home. Womp womp wooooomp
22

9

5

9.6

10.1

10.4

.634

.652

80.5%

7.5%

88.0%

1.0%

9.9%

Austin Jackson has discovered what centuries of Spanish explorers could not: the elusive Fountain of BABIP. It’s a 360-degree fountain and when Jackson stood next to it and tried to catch a drop in his hands but could not, he knew he had been gifted with special powers.
23

5

8

4.3

4.8

5.0

.423

.404

6.1%

5.6%

11.7%

1.3%

1.9%

After last night, the Brewers are 1-0 when Ryan Braun walks three times, but 0-1 when he walks twice, but 2-1 when he walks once, but 2-3 when he doesn't walk at all. Odd numbers!
24

6

10

6.1

6.1

6.3

.433

.452

2.8%

5.4%

8.3%

-1.3%

-2.9%

The Mariners are 3 1/2 games back of the AL West lead. I write that so Mariners fans can bookmark this page and return to it in a few months to gaze longingly and mutter “I remember when…” under their breath.
25

7

7

7.2

7.7

7.9

.497

.517

2.1%

5.4%

7.4%

-2.3%

-0.1%

In some small Eastern European countries saying someone gave up two doubles to James Loney is grounds for a duel. So if you see Chris Tillman in the locker room or on the street, best to just look the other way.
26

4

9

4.9

5.2

5.6

.428

.409

4.0%

4.1%

8.1%

-0.3%

-4.9%

Confucius say fire Dale Sveum! Libra 04 16 87 65 – a fortune cookie
27

5

10

6.1

5.1

6.1

.421

.401

1.4%

3.2%

4.7%

1.0%

-0.6%

Chase Headley came back and put up a bunch of ones in his box score so you'd think he homered but he didn't.
28

6

7

5.5

6.3

6.7

.435

.455

0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

-0.4%

-0.4%

At 3-0 the Twins have the best record in one-run games. At 3-7 the Twins do not have the best record in not-one-run games.
29

3

12

3.5

2.8

3.1

.317

.300

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.4%

It would make sense if the Marlins had the fewest extra-base hits and the most groundball outs in baseball. It makes sense.
30

4

11

5.4

5.1

5.9

.364

.383

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are doing their part to alleviate the heat in the Houston area by waiving their bats very quickly in order to help circulate the air for beleaguered residents. Said manager Bo Porter, “We discussed stopping when we get into the batter's box, but we decided, nope, it’s just too hot.”

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
grandslam28

Thoughts on the Astros manager benching JD Martinez for swining at a high 80s fastball the other day?

Apr 18, 2013 11:05 AM
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Llarry

"After last night, the Brewers are 1-0 when Ryan Braun walks three times, but 0-1 when he walks twice, but 2-1 when he walks once, but 2-3 when he doesn't walk at all. Odd numbers!"

0 and 2 are even. Odd starts at "1"...

Apr 18, 2013 11:43 AM
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-2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

The odd numbers refer to the number of walks. The Brewers have a winning record when Braun walks an odd number of times.

Apr 18, 2013 13:43 PM
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0

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Llarry

's a joke, son...

Apr 19, 2013 10:21 AM
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-1

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NYYanks826

Happy to see the number rankings next to the teams now!

Apr 18, 2013 13:15 PM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Me too!

Apr 18, 2013 13:43 PM
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0

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Justice

I have a question on the Braves and the White Sox. With Jonny Venters on the DL and Luis Avilan perhaps going to the DL with some type of hamstring injury, the Braves could use a lefty reliever. And with Tyler Flowers and Hector Gimenez as their catchers, the White Sox seem a little thin behind the plate. Assuming that the Braves want to keep Evan Gattis as their starting catcher, they would appear to have a surplus of catchers when Brian McCann returns.

My question is this: does a Matt Thornton for Brian McCann seal make sense for both the Braves and the White Sox?

Apr 18, 2013 14:13 PM
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NoHRTyner

The White Sox would have to give up more than that for McCann.I suspect that Gattis will get some playing time at first base against lefties and maybe even a little time in the outfield as well as backing up McCann when Brian gets off the DL.

Apr 18, 2013 23:13 PM
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NoHRTyner

The White Sox would have to give up more than that for McCann.I suspect that Gattis will get some playing time at first base against lefties and maybe even a little time in the outfield as well as backing up McCann when Brian gets off the DL.

Apr 18, 2013 23:14 PM
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