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Prospectus Hit List for April 15



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 12 Hit List for April 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Within: an important update on team sacrifice bunt totals.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

2

10

2.5

2.2

2.6

.311

.294

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.4%

-1.6%

If Giancarlo Stanton is out for a substantial amount of time, the Marlins will definitely be able to replace him in the lineup. Not with someone great, but someone will no doubt play in his spot.
2

4

8

5.1

4.4

5.0

.387

.406

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

-0.1%

0.1%

Their strikeout woes seemed to dissipate a little with that weekend series against the Angels. They also seemed to play Rick Ankiel less. Probably just a coincidence.
3

4

7

3.7

4.5

5.0

.393

.413

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

-0.2%

-0.9%

The bright side of a snow postponement on April 14: you can get your taxes done!
4

2

10

3.1

2.6

3.2

.349

.331

0.7%

1.6%

2.3%

-0.5%

-3.8%

We're still waiting for a Padres starting pitcher to make it into the seventh inning.
5

8

4

7.3

7.7

6.4

.525

.505

1.9%

5.5%

7.4%

1.6%

-0.6%

For a team whose starter ERA was 5.82 last year, starting off at a 3.72 mark warrants them all the Most Improved ribbons on the globe.
6

6

6

6.5

7.2

7.2

.512

.532

2.4%

5.5%

7.9%

-0.0%

2.3%

Five people have tried to run on Matt Wieters this year. Only one of them was successful, but he's too traumatized to talk about it.
7

6

8

5.7

5.8

5.8

.449

.469

3.8%

7.6%

11.4%

1.2%

-3.6%

"Maybe Kelly Shoppach should be the starting catcher with Jesus Montero as the backup," he said with a straight face.
8

5

7

5.1

5.7

5.4

.457

.477

4.3%

7.5%

11.7%

0.4%

-8.0%

Jeff Keppinger is the only player among qualified batters with zero walks. He should try it; it's quality, underrated exercise.
9

4

8

4.7

5.2

5.4

.439

.419

5.5%

4.1%

9.6%

-1.6%

-3.6%

"For once it wasn't me!" Carlos Marmol writes in his diary, then gives out a long sigh.
10

3

8

2.9

3.4

3.6

.387

.368

6.1%

3.2%

9.3%

2.8%

-1.6%

It only took them 32 innings in between scoring runs. You try and do better.
11

7

5

7.3

6.7

6.5

.523

.543

6.7%

11.0%

17.6%

1.3%

1.7%

We're two weeks in and the fans' souls have yet to be crushed with the weight of a thousand baseball blunders. Successful season so far.
12

5

7

4.0

3.4

3.7

.428

.448

8.5%

12.3%

20.8%

-4.7%

-2.4%

Mark DeRosa was teammates with Dennis Martinez. This has been your fascinating Mark DeRosa fact of the day.
13

6

6

5.0

5.9

6.2

.490

.470

10.2%

12.9%

23.2%

2.9%

-1.0%

To those worried about Roy Halladay: LOOK OUT, THERE'S A SPIDER ON THE BACK OF YOUR COMPUTER!
14

7

4

7.7

7.6

7.0

.577

.558

12.3%

15.0%

27.3%

0.4%

-1.2%

They're the only National League team not to record a sacrifice bunt. Playing the game the right way my foot.
15

5

6

4.6

4.9

4.5

.465

.485

13.5%

13.2%

26.7%

-2.7%

-3.3%

The only player to be intentionally walked on their team is Jason Kipnis. Possibly a clerical error, or maybe someone lost a bet.
16

6

6

5.2

3.8

4.1

.444

.424

13.8%

6.6%

20.4%

2.7%

7.8%

Andrew McCutchen continues to play like the face of this team, although ... nope, upon closer inspection, the face of their team is still a cartoon pirate.
17

4

7

3.5

2.7

3.0

.417

.437

14.5%

16.8%

31.4%

-4.6%

-10.9%

One way to increase their AL-worst 3.0 runs/game is to build a catwalk that, when struck, is worth five runs.
18

8

4

7.7

7.7

7.5

.584

.565

19.1%

31.7%

50.9%

2.0%

-4.1%

The only D'backs pitcher to win in Yankee Stadium was Miguel Batista in 2002. Do you smell a three-day contract?
19

9

4

7.2

7.5

8.0

.565

.545

20.3%

27.8%

48.1%

3.8%

12.2%

It's rather impressive to lead one's division with just a +7 run differential. Pythagoras would be impressed.
20

9

4

8.5

8.1

7.9

.577

.596

24.1%

22.8%

46.9%

-4.2%

10.6%

Yoenis Cespedes was placed on the disabled list after he was tricked into saying his own name backwards.
21

4

8

4.1

5.4

5.4

.472

.492

24.2%

24.9%

49.1%

-2.7%

-17.3%

Finally, two wins in a row. But the best news: they've finally caught up to the Astros in the standings!
22

7

5

8.6

6.3

6.4

.548

.528

25.6%

11.2%

36.8%

-2.6%

4.5%

Just as we all suspected, their home run leader is Matt Adams with three, in just 18 at bats.
23

7

4

7.8

7.1

6.9

.591

.611

26.6%

25.6%

52.2%

8.1%

5.7%

Clay Buchholz has allowed just three extra base hits all year, or one per start if you prefer simple math done for you.
24

7

5

4.6

4.3

4.3

.480

.460

32.2%

22.7%

54.9%

-4.6%

-6.8%

The source of their problems has been identified: they should stop playing the Braves so many darn times.
25

11

1

10.2

10.1

9.8

.683

.666

45.2%

23.5%

68.7%

2.6%

19.2%

He could finish the year with a 0.00 ERA and Paul Maholm will always be, to me, the guy that nearly walked Billy Crystal in spring training.
26

8

5

7.8

8.5

7.6

.583

.602

47.8%

20.8%

68.5%

-1.9%

4.3%

Not that they're struggling offensively, but they're being outscored by Houston.
27

6

5

6.8

6.2

6.7

.574

.593

48.0%

21.4%

69.4%

6.3%

13.0%

The good news is Hiroki Kuroda turned it around last night. The bad news is he's their top young pitching prospect.
28

5

7

6.6

6.5

6.1

.531

.511

49.1%

11.5%

60.7%

-5.7%

-18.8%

Joey Votto has walked more times (20) than the entire White Sox (16).
29

7

5

6.1

9.3

9.1

.617

.598

58.1%

22.2%

80.2%

-3.3%

-0.8%

Their pitchers have a combined .781 OPS hitting, in case you wonder who's going to secede if the National League adopts the designated hitter.
30

7

5

8.0

8.4

8.5

.618

.637

75.3%

10.0%

85.4%

3.8%

8.7%

One way to lead the league in batting average (which they are) is to strike out about 14 percent of the time (which they also are).

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
NattyFan

It's hard to believe that a single writer could produce so many good comments every day for every team.

On the other hand, "Matt Sussman" would be a terrible collective pseudonym, so I can only conclude that Matt is a real person.

Apr 15, 2013 07:08 AM
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BP staff member Matt Sussman

It's not that hard to come up with 30 jokes a night. Tell 'em, Wash.

Apr 15, 2013 16:59 PM
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DetroitDale

That Phillies comment had me laughing so hard I dropped my tablet

Apr 15, 2013 19:52 PM
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