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Prospectus Hit List for April 9



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 8 Hit List for April 10
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It was an off day for some, but not for the Hit List!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

5

2

5.4

5.1

4.6

.605

.585

16.6%

15.7%

32.3%

3.5%

1.9%

For yet another night, Matt Harvey gave the Mets' fans the most dangerous substance known to a fanbase: hope.
2

6

1

5.5

4.8

4.5

.626

.607

29.5%

21.0%

50.5%

3.4%

7.9%

Even Paul Maholm has to admit deep down that, yeah, despite allowing one hit over seven innings ... it was the Marlins.
3

5

2

5.6

5.4

5.3

.663

.645

73.8%

8.6%

82.4%

2.8%

6.2%

Today in "things that won't be kept up," Joey Votto's batting line stands at .240/.472/.320, which is also coincidentally my luggage combination.
4

3

4

3.1

2.7

2.9

.489

.509

40.1%

18.7%

58.9%

2.5%

-1.7%

Travis Hafner sure picked a swell time for his 100th career home run at Progressive Field.
5

5

2

4.3

5.0

4.7

.616

.635

41.7%

26.5%

68.3%

2.5%

11.8%

If Joe Nathan found a secret strike zone hidden in the dirt, then Jon Daniels is signing nothing but groundhogs.
6

2

5

2.2

2.2

2.5

.401

.382

5.3%

7.8%

13.1%

2.2%

-4.8%

Norichika Aoki is the hottest leadoff hitter you've never heard of, although ... well, now you just learned about him, so strike that.
7

5

2

5.4

4.8

4.7

.617

.635

26.6%

19.9%

46.5%

2.2%

5.6%

After Opening Day, nobody wants to fire the manager, so consider it a successful one.
8

4

3

2.3

3.0

3.3

.483

.463

15.3%

24.1%

39.3%

1.9%

0.2%

A Hunter Pence go-ahead home run counts as a plague according to the book of Exodus.
9

4

4

4.0

4.2

4.4

.501

.521

5.6%

11.9%

17.5%

1.2%

-1.4%

They're on pace to shatter the MLB record for highest Value over Replacement Saunders.
10

2

5

2.5

1.6

1.3

.378

.359

5.4%

8.4%

13.7%

1.1%

-5.2%

Five hits in a baseball game, sadly, raises their collective batting average way up.
11

4

3

4.5

3.9

3.9

.526

.546

7.9%

9.0%

16.9%

0.9%

4.8%

Yes, they're a city known for their bullpen and their barbecue; but is it worth it to make a special trip to Kansas City for either?
12

4

3

3.6

3.9

4.0

.478

.498

1.1%

0.8%

1.9%

0.3%

0.7%

Aaron Hicks is just 2-for-30 in that leadoff position with two walks and two singles. Rookies.
13

5

2

5.3

5.5

5.0

.592

.573

2.6%

5.8%

8.4%

0.3%

4.5%

If we're going to make jokes about their pitching later in the season, we must recognize their superior ERA so far. It's only fair.
14

4

2

2.2

2.4

2.4

.498

.478

43.3%

19.5%

62.8%

0.0%

1.3%

DidBryceHarperHitTwoMoreHomeRunsToday.com
15

1

6

1.3

0.6

0.8

.260

.276

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.5%

So much for the theory that Safeco Field is Philip Humber's Valhalla.
16

2

4

2.9

3.3

3.6

.526

.546

37.9%

25.9%

63.8%

-0.1%

-6.0%

All that speed and they have one stolen base on the year, and it's courtesy of Howie Kendrick.
17

4

2

3.4

3.8

3.8

.547

.566

9.3%

9.3%

18.6%

-0.2%

1.4%

Alex Rios happens to be the team leader in hits, home runs, walks, RBIs, stolen bases, and names which translate to "rivers."
18

1

6

1.6

1.9

2.2

.333

.315

0.6%

1.2%

1.8%

-0.2%

-0.4%

Tied for the team lead in hits is Placido Polanco and Donovan Solano, which is simply an alternate spelling of Placido Polanco.
19

4

2

4.2

5.2

5.3

.675

.658

59.7%

20.8%

80.5%

-0.5%

2.9%

Their bullpen has yet to allow a run (and just one hit in 13 innings), which is wrong and perhaps illegal. Where are the cops when you need them?
20

3

4

3.9

4.6

4.7

.519

.539

2.0%

2.6%

4.6%

-0.5%

-1.0%

No hits or RBIs in two games. Has Chris Davis been wrought with the grippe?
21

1

5

0.7

0.8

1.0

.308

.291

1.7%

4.3%

5.9%

-0.6%

-5.5%

Perhaps it's time to consider a camouflage win-loss record.
22

5

2

5.1

5.3

4.9

.619

.637

14.7%

20.8%

35.5%

-0.7%

5.3%

I like to imagine that A's fans have slumber parties in the stadium on off days.
23

3

3

2.7

3.0

3.0

.524

.544

65.4%

10.5%

76.0%

-0.7%

-3.4%

Bullpen didn't give up a single run yesterday.
24

2

4

1.8

1.8

1.9

.417

.437

10.5%

12.9%

23.4%

-1.0%

-7.7%

Jose Reyes is still performing as expected. Worst case, he makes an excellent trade candidate.
25

3

4

3.5

4.0

3.7

.501

.521

16.3%

12.0%

28.4%

-1.8%

0.1%

Nick Swisher has never looked happier hitting a sacrifice fly.
26

2

5

1.7

1.9

2.1

.388

.369

10.0%

11.8%

21.8%

-2.4%

-8.0%

That awkward moment when your starting pitching ERA is on the wrong side of 7.00.
27

2

5

2.1

2.0

2.0

.382

.363

3.5%

6.7%

10.2%

-2.6%

-7.8%

It's a shame how a perfectly beautiful Cubs Opening Day can get ruined by a simple thing like Cubs baseball.
28

5

2

4.3

4.6

4.3

.585

.565

20.8%

27.8%

48.6%

-3.7%

6.7%

"Yeah, well we loosened him!" team slogan on Justin Upton.
29

3

4

2.7

2.1

2.3

.449

.469

20.8%

18.8%

39.6%

-4.5%

-7.9%

Where were you when Jose Molina stole that base? And did you feel it?
30

3

4

3.9

2.1

2.3

.454

.434

12.0%

16.6%

28.6%

-5.2%

0.0%

Allowing six earned runs in the ninth inning is a weird if not numerically accurate way for Mitchell Boggs to honor Stan Musial.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
djgx39

According to the definition when you hover over AHLF: "The 53/47 difference" in Adjusted Hit List Factor is "because there are 16 NL teams and 14 AL teams." There's also stuff about league quality in there. Now that the number of teams have been equalized by putting the absolutely horrible Astros into the AL, even the quality factor might need a tweaking. If it is going to be enough that the AL West teams are likely to get a nice win-dividend in the competition for a Wild Card slot from the change, it might be enough to make a noticeable dent in the presumption that the AL is better than the NL.

Apr 09, 2013 08:30 AM
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+4

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BP staff member Ben Lindbergh

Colin Wyers updated this entry today. It was outdated.

Apr 09, 2013 23:22 PM
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0

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Sharky

I was feeling pretty good about the Mets' ranking. Then I saw the Rockies listed just below them. Yuck.

Apr 09, 2013 12:33 PM
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0

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HalfStreet

Wow. Nats are listed 19th. Feels like old times. Except in old times they were listed 30th.

Apr 09, 2013 15:51 PM
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+1

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