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Prospectus Hit List for April 5



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 4 Hit List for April 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Among other things, a brief discussion of the team pickoffs leaderboard.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

1

2

0.9

0.2

0.2

.294

.311

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

There are seven players left in baseball with 10 at-bats and an OPS of .000. Two are Houston Astros.
2

2

1

2.1

2.2

2.1

.549

.569

0.7%

0.8%

1.5%

0.2%

0.0%

Mike Pelfrey's 5 1/3 innings with one strikeout and just two unearned runs is so totally Twins.
3

0

3

0.1

0.3

0.3

.244

.229

1.0%

1.2%

2.2%

-0.8%

0.0%

Just three (or four) games into the season and the Marlins are the only team in baseball without a win. They do have a run though, so you know, baby steps.
4

2

1

2.1

2.3

2.2

.580

.560

2.4%

4.0%

6.4%

0.8%

0.0%

Recently scientists discovered a massive Alps-like mountain range underneath Antarctica. A giant mountain range deep under water. Somehow this is appropriate.
5

2

1

1.8

2.3

2.2

.578

.597

3.1%

4.1%

7.2%

0.9%

0.0%

Brian Roberts’ run of health lasted two and half games. On the plus side, Chris Davis is hitting more than enough for the both of them.
6

1

2

0.4

0.4

0.5

.334

.316

4.1%

7.1%

11.2%

2.4%

0.0%

Existential question: If Mark Kotsay bats third in the lineup will anyone be around to see it?
7

1

2

1.1

0.4

0.5

.361

.380

6.1%

6.5%

12.6%

2.0%

0.0%

After they got the White Sox out to end the ninth inning with a 3-1 lead, the Royals took the field again. They'll figure this winning thing out one of these days.
8

2

2

1.8

1.9

1.9

.480

.500

6.5%

11.7%

18.2%

-2.8%

0.0%

Kelly Shoppach is hitting .667, a fact you shouldn’t forget when All Star voting begins in two weeks.
9

2

1

1.5

1.5

1.3

.499

.479

7.1%

10.2%

17.2%

0.7%

0.0%

After getting pulled to prevent him from blowing a save on Opening Day, Carlos Marmol almost blew it yesterday, giving up two of a three-run lead before finally getting the third out. Afterwards he lit into his teammates, saying, “Am I the only real Cub here? Am I the only one out there trying to lose? What is going on with you guys? This is the Cubs, dammit! The CUBS!”
10

1

2

0.9

0.7

0.8

.381

.362

7.3%

8.3%

15.6%

-0.5%

0.0%

After giving up eight homers in three games, some Brewers pitchers were arrested in a nearby neighborhood for attempting to move people's picket fences further away from their homes.
11

1

2

1.5

1.5

1.7

.485

.465

9.7%

11.2%

20.8%

-1.7%

0.0%

Meet Clint Barmes, the Pirates' second leading hitter. He'll have the veal and make sure it comes with fries this time!
12

2

1

1.9

2.6

2.5

.610

.629

9.9%

9.0%

18.9%

-1.4%

0.0%

Dayan Viciedo struck out four times in four at-bats. Doesn't he know that's Adam Dunn's gig? (Dunn only managed three.)
13

2

2

2.2

2.1

2.1

.518

.538

11.5%

18.1%

29.7%

1.6%

0.0%

Josh Reddick went 2-for-4 with a homer. His crazy beard went hitless. The A's won anyway.
14

1

2

1.3

1.1

1.1

.446

.465

13.2%

15.5%

28.6%

3.8%

0.0%

The Mark Buerhle in the AL East experiment is proceeding as advertised. Fortunately, so is the Blue Jays offense.
15

1

2

0.8

1.4

1.5

.445

.425

13.8%

16.2%

30.1%

3.0%

0.0%

There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what’s possible: 1-2, baby!
16

2

1

2.6

2.6

2.5

.647

.629

14.1%

13.6%

27.6%

-2.9%

0.0%

Quick quiz! Who has scored more runs, the Mets or the actually it's the Mets. This is going to be one of those things we look back and laugh at. In like three days.
17

1

2

1.5

1.0

1.1

.442

.423

15.0%

15.0%

30.0%

0.8%

0.0%

The Cardinals are 1-2 but Albert Pujols is hitting .097 so that wouldn't have helped. (Only nine more years of that joke)
18

2

1

1.7

1.9

1.9

.563

.583

18.7%

14.6%

33.3%

-0.7%

0.0%

Brett Myers had it yesterday if ‘it’ was a big bag of not having it.
19

2

1

1.7

0.8

0.9

.485

.465

18.9%

21.9%

40.7%

-1.5%

0.0%

The Giants have grounded into seven double plays, three more than second-place Boston. It doesn’t sound good but then no part of Brian Sabean’s plan ever sounds good. Mark my words, somehow the Giants will win because of this.
20

2

1

1.5

2.0

1.9

.572

.552

20.8%

21.8%

42.6%

0.3%

0.0%

Not only are the Diamondbacks in first place, but they’re second in baseball in pickoffs! (They are tied with 26 other teams with zero.)
21

2

1

2.2

1.9

1.9

.597

.616

21.4%

19.9%

41.3%

-2.3%

0.0%

The Red Sox lost their first game of the season. Somewhere Bobby Valentine is saying, "I told you so" loudly and to nobody.
22

1

2

1.2

0.7

0.8

.420

.440

22.3%

20.1%

42.4%

-2.7%

0.0%

In the top of the eigth Rays pitcher Cesar Ramos induced Chris Davis to ground out. The crowd erupted in tribute to a Rays pitcher who could actually get Davis out. No sooner had the crowd sat down than Ramos gave up a single to Matt Wieters and a homer to J.J. Hardy. To its credit, the crowd was quiet after that.
23

2

1

2.2

1.6

1.5

.560

.541

22.6%

17.0%

39.5%

-3.0%

0.0%

The Braves lost 2-0. I'd pass along Chipper Jones' tweets on the game but you can watch Oliver Stone movies on your own time.
24

1

2

0.8

1.1

1.1

.445

.465

40.0%

19.9%

60.0%

4.1%

0.0%

The Yankees won with contributions from Eduardo Nunez, Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner, and Francisco Cervelli. Any minute Kurt Cobain is going to show up and ask if we’d like to try his homemade muffins because this is definitely some sort of weird dream.
25

2

1

2.1

2.8

2.8

.677

.694

40.7%

23.8%

64.5%

1.1%

0.0%

Did you know that four of the Rangers starting lineup have first names that start with vowels? Oh come on, we’re three games in you’re expecting some great insight?
26

1

2

1.5

1.9

1.9

.543

.563

41.2%

25.2%

66.4%

-2.2%

0.0%

Is it too late to undo the Vernon Wells trade?
27

3

0

2.9

2.7

2.7

.739

.723

48.6%

17.6%

66.2%

0.6%

0.0%

Bryce Harper is hitting .500 because April but also because Bryce Harper.
28

1

2

1.3

2.2

2.1

.560

.540

53.8%

19.4%

73.2%

-0.7%

0.0%

How long before the Dodgers ditch the whole buying-players thing and start buying actual wins?
29

2

1

1.5

1.1

1.1

.521

.501

61.0%

15.4%

76.4%

2.5%

0.0%

The Shin-Soo Choo in centerfield experiment is proceeding swimmingly. Turns out, moving players the wrong way on the defensive spectrum is the new market inefficiency. It's also probably not the best idea. But hey, new market inefficiency!
30

1

2

0.9

0.8

0.9

.433

.453

64.6%

10.2%

74.8%

-1.9%

0.0%

RIck Porcello's 5 1/3 innings of three-run, two-strikeout ball against the Twins is having the same affect on his trade value that my 4-year-old son having an accident in his pants has on the surrounding tables at the restaurant.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
MikeyVoges

Got some good laughs here, funny stuff.

Apr 05, 2013 09:20 AM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Apr 05, 2013 09:43 AM
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