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Prospectus Hit List for April 2



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for October 4 Hit List for April 3
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Red Sox on top! Padres on the bottom!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

0

1

0.1

0.1

0.1

.302

.319

31.2%

25.3%

56.4%

1.8%

0.0%

To whichever imp god bodyswitched them with the Astros for a night: that was cute, but slightly terrifying and please stay away from my dog.
2

1

0

0.9

1.0

1.0

.741

.725

19.1%

22.9%

41.9%

0.9%

0.0%

Seven doubles on Opening Day? Nobody's done that since the 1954 Milwaukee Braves.
3

0

1

0.0

0.1

0.1

.286

.270

16.6%

22.5%

39.1%

-4.2%

0.0%

They accumulated four total baserunners, only one of which reached second base. Why they're impersonating the Tigers in the World Series is beyond me.
4

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.539

.559

25.2%

22.4%

47.6%

-0.4%

0.0%

If James Loney has a productive year in Tampa Bay, then it's time to start investigating if Joe Maddon has been using cheat codes or possibly a sports almanac from the future.
5

0

1

0.1

0.0

0.0

.300

.317

38.9%

21.7%

60.6%

-5.2%

0.0%

Remember, it's all smiles and high fives when the Yankees lose until they acquire your team's favorite player in July.
6

1

0

0.9

1.0

1.0

.742

.757

20.2%

20.7%

40.9%

4.7%

0.0%

Fairly decent debut for Jackie Bradley, Jr. He's the 12th person since 1916 to draw at least three walks in his first major-league game the first since Danny Ardoin in 2000.
7

1

0

0.8

0.9

0.9

.725

.740

50.2%

19.6%

69.8%

2.1%

0.0%

Mike Trout: 1-for-6, two strikeouts. Might as well send him back down until the end of April; it worked well last time.
8

1

0

0.7

0.7

0.6

.626

.607

23.8%

18.8%

42.6%

1.7%

0.0%

This was just the second time in nine years the Braves opened up a season at home. Whose feathers did they ruffle in scheduling? Was it Claire? You have to be nice to Claire.
9

0

1

0.0

0.5

0.5

.381

.400

11.4%

18.8%

30.2%

-3.8%

0.0%

Listen, simply getting multiple hits off Felix Hernandez is pretty impressive!
10

1

0

1.0

0.9

0.9

.762

.747

59.1%

18.5%

77.6%

2.7%

0.0%

For those keeping score: Clayton Kershaw, 1 home run. The entire AL Central: 1 home run.
11

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.520

.540

13.6%

17.4%

31.1%

0.4%

0.0%

The Blue Jays will be the last team chronologically to bat this year. Step up and be assertive, Canada.
12

1

0

1.0

0.8

0.8

.715

.699

44.9%

16.6%

61.5%

1.1%

0.0%

Stephen Strasburg had two sacrifice bunts and is on pace to have about 10 before he is shut down by the team for, let's say, a hantavirus scare.
13

0

1

0.1

0.0

0.0

.274

.258

13.1%

15.5%

28.6%

-2.7%

0.0%

Losing the first game is simply the first cog in their master plan: fall way behind, then sneak into the playoffs on the final day. I'm onto you.
14

0

1

0.3

0.3

0.4

.379

.360

14.7%

15.1%

29.8%

-2.1%

0.0%

With an open base, the Braves actually pitched to Ryan Howard, then intentionally walked Michael Young behind him. The stingiest of barbs.
15

1

0

1.0

0.9

0.9

.729

.713

15.8%

14.6%

30.4%

3.6%

0.0%

Every starter reached base at least twice, except for Ike Davis, who didn't reach base. But he did strike out four times!
16

0

1

0.2

0.1

0.1

.341

.323

63.7%

12.5%

76.2%

-1.9%

0.0%

They hosted the first interleague Opening Day game in baseball history. They can and should brag about that fact, which will help others forget the thing about three hits in 13 innings.
17

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.496

.516

16.0%

12.3%

28.3%

-0.7%

0.0%

Terry Francona will motivate his new team using a cardboard cutout of the Boston sports media saying they stink. On second thought, that might just be for himself.
18

1

0

1.0

0.5

0.5

.618

.637

7.0%

12.0%

19.0%

1.3%

0.0%

By the time you finish reading this sentence, Jesus Montero will almost be to first base. ...Okay, we'll give him a few more seconds.
19

0

1

0.2

0.2

0.2

.314

.297

7.4%

11.5%

19.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

In his long career, this was somehow A.J. Burnett's first Opening Day start. This seems wrong. And yet.
20

1

0

0.8

0.8

0.8

.670

.652

7.1%

11.0%

18.0%

2.6%

0.0%

What a daring, if not eccentric, portrayal by Carlos Marmol as "baseball closer," but method acting is better left for spring training.
21

1

0

0.8

0.4

0.4

.606

.625

69.8%

9.6%

79.4%

3.1%

0.0%

On the first save opportunity, the Closer Pinwheel of Fate landed on Phil Coke. Tune in next time to see who pitches the ninth inning: it could be you!
22

1

0

0.6

0.4

0.4

.542

.522

8.7%

9.2%

17.9%

2.4%

0.0%

"Yeah, but we still won" is something John Axford is likely muttering to himself in the mirror.
23

1

0

1.0

0.7

0.7

.670

.688

8.0%

9.2%

17.2%

-0.5%

0.0%

The only run of the game was courtesy of a Tyler Flowers home run. Without that, the game may still be in progress.
24

0

1

0.0

0.1

0.1

.252

.238

4.0%

7.4%

11.4%

-0.6%

0.0%

Judging by their first game, the Padres are going to be just fine. Spiritually, at least.
25

0

1

0.0

0.3

0.3

.301

.318

5.6%

6.5%

12.1%

-2.1%

0.0%

They sadly suffer their fifth straight Opening Day loss, the second straight of the shutout variety. They are clearly pacing themselves.
26

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.461

.481

2.0%

3.6%

5.6%

-0.9%

0.0%

In more than 90 percent of his 1,200 career starts, Brian Roberts has been a leadoff hitter. Today he'll bat ninth.
27

0

1

0.4

0.6

0.6

.417

.398

1.2%

2.6%

3.8%

-0.7%

0.0%

In their 21st season, the Rockies have now started four seasons with an extra-inning game. It's a long season, anthropomorphic mountains.
28

0

1

0.0

0.2

0.2

.261

.246

0.8%

1.4%

2.2%

-0.2%

0.0%

In his 1,607th career start, 37-year-old Placido Polanco finally batted cleanup in a big league game.
29

0

1

0.2

0.6

0.6

.376

.395

0.7%

0.6%

1.2%

-0.2%

0.0%

The temperature at first pitch: 35 degrees. Minneapolis should really look into building an indoor baseball stadium.
30

1

0

0.9

0.9

0.9

.668

.685

0.2%

0.4%

0.7%

0.2%

0.0%

Justin Maxwell is the sixth dude since 1916 to mash two triples on Opening Day. Tony Pena was the last one in 2007. The Astros are just makin' Opening Day history like everyone thought they would.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


7 comments have been left for this article.
lmarighi

A+ for the hantavirus comment.

Apr 02, 2013 09:50 AM
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+1

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Shaun P.

Sweet! I've been waiting all offseason for the return of the informative joke-fest that is the HitList!

Wait a minute. There are so many Jasons writing for BP that it's hard to keep track of 'em all, but before now, there was only one Matt currently writing for the site (Matt Schwarz having left for graphy pastures a while ago). Will this be an attack of the Matts effort or is change in the air again?

Change is good, as long as it's funny.

Apr 02, 2013 11:15 AM
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+3

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gweedoh565

SOURCE: Matt Kory has married Matt Sussman, taking his last name, all in the name of confusing Hit List readers. Which Matt is writing on which day? Mystery, intrigue, and betrayal and also baseball, all in this season of... The Hit List. {theme song}

Apr 02, 2013 12:20 PM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Sussman

There are many ways to tell us apart. Mr. Kory is Matthew; I am Matt. One of us is handsome; the other one is the mole.

Apr 02, 2013 16:15 PM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Hey!

Apr 02, 2013 23:24 PM
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0

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boatman44

Placido batted clean-up, but had nothing to clean, going to be a long season for the fish.

Apr 02, 2013 11:28 AM
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+1

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dodgerdan

I almost forgot how much I enjoy "HIT LIST" over the winter and I do appreciate your humor along with insightfulness, and all with usually 22 words or less.

Apr 02, 2013 11:50 AM
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+2

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