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Prospectus Hit List for October 4



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for October 3 Hit List for April 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

...to the ennnnnnnd of the road, still I caaaaannn't let go.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

73

88.1

91.1

92.7

.557

.577

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-18.2%

Mike Trout: Baseball Pornography
2

83

79

85.4

85.3

82.5

.519

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

The Brewers' 2012 season is like life: An awful start (lots of crying), a valiant if quixotic run, and finally the last straw: nothingness.
3

66

96

67.9

70.7

70.4

.424

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins put an ad up on Craigslist this morning: "Needed: Pitching. Ability to pitch to contact, economy of pitches, and strong desire to throw strikes and trust your defense a must." I don't think this will help.
4

95

67

95.0

96.3

96.7

.591

.610

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.4%

Derek Jeter beat the previous record for hits by a 38-or-older shortstop by 35. He also had, at -5.5 FRA, the, gulp, third-best defensive year of his career.
5

74

88

74.5

78.0

80.3

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Which Ike Davis is the real Ike Davis? The one who hit 32 homers, or the one who hit .225? Both, my son. Both.
6

94

68

92.0

87.3

88.8

.559

.578

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

10.8%

In a microcosm of their season, the As came from down 5-1 to blow the doors, the body panels and the hood off the Rangers and take the AL West title. After watching that game you feel like you just finished a good roller coaster: excited, shaky, and ready to barf.
7

81

81

81.4

83.2

83.1

.507

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cliff Lee: six innings, seven strikeouts, no walks, three runs, and got the loss. Lee has had the season with possibly the widest variance between the sabermetric perception and the worst mainstream perception. So, uh, hooray for our differences?
8

79

83

78.4

79.2

77.1

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

On July 18, the Pirates were in first place. On August 21 they were in second. On September 17 they were in third. The Pirates faded badly, though not like the Lil Wayne song. Definitely not like that.
9

76

86

74.5

75.4

74.7

.464

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Lots of young talent now at the big league level and in the minors so lots to be happy about after this tough season.
10

75

87

77.3

75.2

77.6

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Last game of the year and Seattle wins 12-0. Don't you guys know anything about decorum? Surprised Anahiem didn't storm off in a huff.
11

94

68

88.5

86.1

84.9

.546

.526

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Clayton Kershaw was masterful but the Giants made the playoffs. Funny how war vs. battle strategy isn't more often discussed in baseball.
12

90

72

94.7

96.0

97.4

.583

.603

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-10.4%

Even when it doesn't matter, the Rays have this last-game thing down pretty well. Maybe next season they'll be good enough to make it mean something. Or good enough to make it not.
13

73

89

74.1

69.6

71.5

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeff Mathis, finally: .218/.249/.393, which is, technically, the best line of his career.
14

69

93

68.3

70.9

72.1

.433

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In the end, ridiculous home run statue-thingy tolls for you, dear internet reader. It tolls for you.
15

86

76

85.7

84.6

85.1

.527

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.6%

Don't worry Dodgers fans. The team will come back stronger next year. And if they don't, management will take on a quarter-billion in salaries to make it so.
16

81

81

85.9

86.1

84.7

.521

.501

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Ian Kennedy got decisions in 27 of his 32 starts, yet the guy is forever holding up the line at the Burger King. They have the same menu since 1984. Order already!
17

69

93

73.8

75.5

76.5

.455

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox aren't saying if or when Bobby Valentine will be fired, though they have installed a Bobby Valentine guillotine in center field. A squirming cartoonish Valentine wiggles and yells stock phrases like, "I invented the wrap!" as the blade gets lower. But they aren't commenting.
18

85

77

88.6

86.0

84.8

.532

.552

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-27.7%

Lost in the hoopla of yesterday was this: Adam Dunn didn't play. And thus Adam Dunn managed to strike out without even playing in a game.
19

61

101

65.2

62.1

62.2

.387

.368

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs tied for the league lead in games played. Beyond that, uh, Heileman's Old Style! Whoo!
20

97

65

90.4

87.6

85.0

.556

.536

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Miguel Cairo and his .187/.212/.280 season are hereby nominated to the Hall of Really? That Guy? Nooo. Come On!
21

68

94

63.1

67.9

68.5

.413

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Just this afternoon the Indians hired temporary manager Sandy Alomar then fired him, then hired Terry Francana, then fired him, then rehired them both and fired them both in the same press release. By that time it was the third inning.
22

72

90

73.6

68.5

68.5

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Apparently, The Process has much to do with waiting around until luck fairies sprinkle magic dust on the team, which they do once every three decades, but only if you're home when they come by, and if you missed them, they won't tell you or leave a note or come back.
23

98

64

96.2

97.1

95.7

.597

.578

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jayson Werth played exactly half the season and hit five home runs. If you count the ones he hit in his rehab games it's nope, still five.
24

55

107

58.5

58.9

58.7

.357

.338

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In the end the Astros will pick first, which, when you think about the possible range of outcomes, makes this season a successful one.
25

88

74

87.0

89.7

88.9

.546

.566

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

27.7%

In addition to offering official Miguel Cabrera Triple Crown-themed merchandise, MLB is offering, for a lesser price, his 2008 single crown for home runs, and last year's one and a half crown for batting average and doubles. Order today!
26

64

98

68.4

64.9

64.4

.404

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies allowed 890 runs this season, most in baseball by 45. Which reminds me, not enough research funding is going toward inventing altitude-resistant pitchers.
27

93

69

81.7

78.9

80.4

.516

.535

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

17.2%

Just a reminder: Jake Arrieta, who finished with a 6.18 ERA, started Opening Day for Baltimore. Tommy Hunter, 5.45, started the second. Playoff team.
28

94

68

92.3

91.6

91.5

.570

.550

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chipper: How do I say goodbye to what we had? The good times that made us laugh outweigh the bad. I thought we'd get to see forever But forever's gone away It's so hard to say goodbye to yesterday.
29

93

69

91.2

96.0

95.1

.579

.599

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

Ron Washington called the commissioner's office the other day to ask if he ordered 27 sac bunts, could he get a 28th for free? Be afraid, Rangers fans. Be very very afraid.
30

88

74

93.4

94.3

91.3

.566

.547

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

8.6%

The Cardinals gave their B-lineup the day off and went right to the D-lineup. They won anyway.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
rexcoot

The value of Mathis is appreciated but is trivial, what's his final CERA?

Oct 04, 2012 06:47 AM
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+1

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edwardarthur

Can anyone point me to an explanation of how these rankings are compiled? It's not W, W3, or playoff odds. What is the formula that explains the Rays being number 2 this morning?

Oct 04, 2012 07:24 AM
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greenengineer

Hit List Factor: An average of a team's actual winning percentage and the three Pythagenpat winning percentages from our Adjusted Standings Report.Used to determine a team's ranking in the Prospectus Hit List power rankings.

Oct 04, 2012 08:55 AM
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+1

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edwardarthur

Thanks!

Oct 04, 2012 17:25 PM
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greenengineer

Hit List Factor: An average of a team's actual winning percentage and the three Pythagenpat winning percentages from our Adjusted Standings Report.Used to determine a team's ranking in the Prospectus Hit List power rankings.

Oct 04, 2012 08:55 AM
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+1

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R.A.Wagman

Great work this year, Matt. Very enjoyable, all around.

Oct 04, 2012 07:30 AM
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+11

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Oct 04, 2012 10:24 AM
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Shaun P.

Is this the first time a BP article has featured not one but two Boyz II Men references? Inquiring minds want to know!

Oh, and ridiculous home run statue-thingy tolls for thee as well, Matt, and thy 2012 daily Hit List. Verily, it tolls for us all.

Any chance you'll do a spring training hit list?

Oct 04, 2012 16:50 PM
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BP staff member Ben Lindbergh

Probably not the Hit List parts, which wouldn't work in spring training, but maybe Matt can do recaps.

Oct 05, 2012 01:29 AM
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