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Prospectus Hit List for October 3



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for October 2 Hit List for October 4
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Oh man the season is over.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

72

93.8

94.9

96.3

.581

.600

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-12.7%

Complete Game James Shields lost to Complete Fluke Orioles Bullpen.
2

94

67

93.3

94.7

95.2

.586

.605

99.0%

1.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.6%

If this series with the Red Sox has proven anything, it's that the Yankees would be a great team if they only played against Triple-A opponents.
3

93

68

91.5

95.9

95.0

.583

.602

50.4%

49.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rangers fans can be upset that the team lost a five-game lead in a little over a week, but the Rangers have the second-best record in the American League so it isn't like they've blown anything.
4

97

64

95.2

96.0

94.7

.595

.575

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Nationals win or the Reds lose, Washington wins the top seed in the National League based on their 5-2 record against Cincinnati this season. Not bad for a team most thought had an outside shot at .500.
5

89

72

88.8

91.3

93.0

.562

.582

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-25.3%

Yes, the Cardinals made the playoffs while Pujols and his new team didn't, but that ignores that the Angels will finish with a better record than St. Louis and do so in a more difficult league.
6

93

68

91.3

90.5

90.5

.567

.547

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With nothing left to play for you can expect a healthy dose of Eric Hinske today. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
7

87

74

92.8

93.4

90.4

.565

.545

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

3.1%

2.4%

The Cardinals lost but clinched the last Wild Card anyway. Hooray losing!
8

87

74

86.4

89.3

88.5

.545

.565

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

49.1%

Not so fast, folks. If Miguel Cabrera goes 0-for-14 today he'll fall behind Mike Trout for the batting title.
9

93

68

90.8

86.5

88.0

.556

.576

49.6%

50.4%

100.0%

0.0%

16.6%

The A's have fought back from playoff chances of virtually zero to tie the Rangers on the last day of the season. Imagine how exciting this would be if we didn't have all this Wild Card stuff.
10

97

64

89.9

87.5

84.9

.558

.538

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After two consecutive months wherein he hit .300/.400/.500, Scott Rolen hit .205/.250/.295 in September. Though he's hitting .375/.375/.875 in two games this month so he's back yay!
11

94

67

88.4

86.1

84.8

.549

.529

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Winning the division and ending the Dodgers season in front of their fans? That's called a successful season in Giantsland.
12

81

80

85.5

85.6

84.3

.522

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

Know which team leads the majors in stolen bases? Actually it's the Brewers, but if I put this comment there it would ruin the surprise.
13

85

76

84.7

83.6

84.0

.524

.504

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.1%

-0.6%

Down one in the bottom of the ninth inning, Vin Scully said he would be "keeping the talking to a minimum.” The irony is he’s one of the very few announcers who you wouldn’t want to do that.
14

84

77

87.2

84.2

83.1

.526

.545

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-49.2%

Adam Dunn is sitting on 222 strikeouts, two behind Mark Reynolds' season record. Can he do it? Yes! He! Can!
15

81

80

81.4

83.3

83.0

.510

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

First baseman Darin Ruf is slugging .774 since coming up in mid-September. If you doubled current first baseman Ty Wigginton's slugging percentage it would be almost that high.
16

83

78

85.0

85.2

82.4

.521

.501

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.5%

Criminally undermentioned in this space has been Norichika Aoki, who has hit a very solid .289/.356/.435. If he could pitch I’d have probably mentioned him.
17

93

68

81.6

78.9

80.4

.518

.538

1.0%

99.0%

100.0%

0.0%

20.8%

The Orioles remain a game back of New York, but if they tie things up today then it gets interesting. The tiebreaker per MLB rules is a hot dog eating competition.
18

73

88

73.8

77.1

79.4

.471

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

R.A. Dickey has pitched since May with a torn lower abdomen muscle. Never let it be said knuckleball pitchers don't have guts.
19

79

82

78.4

79.3

77.2

.487

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Remember when the Pirates were historically bad at scoring runs? That's all in the past now. Now they're just regularly bad at scoring runs.
20

69

92

74.5

76.2

77.0

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Today will probably be Bobby Valentine's last day as Red Sox manager and he's decided to go out appropriately. He's going to warm Alfredo Aceves up 14 times, bring him in, and then take him out after one pitch, and then have him warm up again. So the usual.
21

74

87

75.4

73.9

76.1

.465

.485

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

By WARP Felix Hernandez had his best season ever, and you have to think there's more where that came from.
22

75

86

73.9

74.4

73.8

.461

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yes another losing Padres season is almost in the books, but great beaches and great beer ha ha see you in spring suckers!
23

69

92

68.0

70.8

72.0

.434

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Adam Greenberg struck out on three pitches, making this the best worst at-bat ever.
24

72

89

73.5

69.1

71.0

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Despite putting up a 2.06 ERA this season, Darren Oliver might call it a career. He started his pro career in 1988. There is a fair chance that you weren't born yet.
25

66

95

67.5

70.3

70.1

.425

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer is hitting .320/.415/.448. If anyone can fulfill my dream of a .400/.400/.400 batting line, it's probably him.
26

68

93

63.5

68.7

69.2

.418

.438

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Indians beat Chicago in the 12th inning and they all did that jump up and down thing. Isn't that a bit like spiking the ball after scoring a touchdown down 35-7?
27

72

89

73.2

68.0

67.9

.437

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Alex Gordon leads baseball in doubles with 51. Twenty-seven percent of his hits have been doubles.
28

63

98

67.9

64.4

63.9

.402

.383

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies lost on a walk-off ninth inning homer. So close, yet another loss that in no way parallels their season.
29

60

101

64.6

61.5

61.8

.385

.366

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Why are they still playing?
30

55

106

58.1

58.5

58.4

.357

.339

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs are 27 games back of first place, the most of any last place team, except the Cubs aren't in last place because they're in the same division as the Astros. Expect an especially nice Christmas card, Astros.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
rexcoot

i really enjoyed this column this year, especially it was a critical source of solace for the Angels season.

The line "The Most Interesting Man in the World wears Mike Trout pajamas" was brilliant.

Oct 03, 2012 10:29 AM
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Shaun P.

I presume we'll see one more Hit List tomorrow? I'm going to miss it during the offseason. So many excellent one liners!

Oct 03, 2012 10:47 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I'm planning on writing one so I hope BP is planning on publishing one. And thanks. It's been a blast to write. Hopefully it's been a fun to read as well.

Oct 03, 2012 11:11 AM
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Brock Dahlke

I used to think George Carlin was the best comedian ever, now I know its Matt Kory. Great job this season!

Oct 03, 2012 13:43 PM
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