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Prospectus Hit List for October 1



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 28 Hit List for October 2
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

No team's playoff odds are between 5 percent and 95 percent. We're almost there, folks.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

96

63

94.2

95.0

93.6

.596

.576

99.1%

0.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals rotation is going through a bit of a bad stretch. If only they had a fireballing young ace to step in and settle things down. Well, as my dad used to say, if 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts, oh what a party we'd have!
2

96

63

88.9

86.7

84.0

.559

.539

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Reds are 10 games up on St. Louis. They don't have to win anymore. But they do. Someone stop them!
3

93

66

87.4

85.6

84.2

.551

.531

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Not only does Buster Posey lead the National League in bVORP with 67.4 but, through painstaking research, I can report to you that he can dance Gangnam Style. There is no reason to look any further.
4

93

66

90.8

90.0

89.9

.572

.552

0.9%

99.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sunday was one of our last chances to play Extrapolating Movie Reviews From Chipper Jones’ Batting Line. Two walks and a single, so clearly he thought Trouble With The Curve was sentimental crap (though Amy Adams was delightful).
5

93

66

90.7

95.2

94.3

.587

.606

86.9%

13.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

In a doubleheader, Rangers starting pitching gave up 21 hits in 13 1/3 innings to Anaheim. Imagine if that mattered!
6

92

67

80.7

78.2

79.5

.519

.539

37.3%

62.7%

100.0%

5.0%

8.0%

That the Orioles are tied for first place is as believable as Jesus coming down from Heaven, tapping me on the shoulder and saying, "I am not the messiah, but He is," and then pointing to the Papa John's pizza guy.
7

92

67

91.4

92.2

92.9

.579

.599

62.7%

37.3%

100.0%

0.7%

0.7%

Derek Lowe has almost doubled his strikeout rate and cut his ERA by two runs since coming to New York. You’d almost think that if the Yankees traded for Ichiro he’d put up an .800+ OPS! Ha ha! No, that’d just be silly.
8

91

68

89.4

85.0

86.4

.553

.573

13.1%

85.4%

98.5%

2.9%

17.5%

Yoenis Cespedes hit home run no. 23 proving once again that making a video of yourself rolling a massive truck tire end over end and then roasting a pig is a legitimate form of offseason training.
9

88

71

92.7

93.5

94.9

.580

.600

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

-3.5%

-7.6%

David Price won his 20th game ensuring a wave of bad puns about the price being right. Which, incidentally, it is.
10

88

71

87.9

90.3

92.1

.563

.583

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-5.1%

-18.7%

The Angels: Crushingly disappointing flop, and just four games worse than the league's best record.
11

86

73

85.3

88.3

87.7

.546

.566

99.0%

0.0%

99.0%

9.7%

67.8%

Detroit's magic number to clinch the AL Central is down to one, proving that everyone who looked at the Tigers defense and thought, "That'll never work!" was only mostly right.
12

86

73

91.7

92.1

89.1

.564

.545

0.0%

95.0%

95.0%

4.0%

10.7%

The Cardinals are two runs behind Milwaukee for the National League lead. I mention this on the off chance that the fine people of St. Louis need an excuse for a parade.
13

84

75

83.7

82.1

82.4

.522

.502

0.0%

5.0%

5.0%

-3.9%

-0.5%

The Dodgers have to make up two games on the Cardinals with three games to go. Could happen, but would be much easier with Jose Bautista. Call Anthopoulos and have Bautista sent over.
14

83

76

85.1

82.2

81.2

.521

.541

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

-9.7%

-67.9%

Adam Dunn: four plate appearances, three strikeouts. SNIFF, I'm going to miss him when this season ends...
15

81

78

83.7

84.1

81.3

.519

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-9.3%

The Brewers lost 7-0 to Houston. I'd make a joke but that would just be piling on.
16

80

79

80.4

82.4

82.0

.511

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Maybe someday someone will do a study on whether or not it's a good idea to give a relief pitcher $13 million a season. I look forward to reading that!
17

80

79

84.5

84.5

83.4

.522

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.9%

It's time for Silver Lining Theater! When thinking about a team led in WARP by Aaron Hill, you might think of a team that has lost 250 games in a season. But the Diamondbacks have lost far fewer than that!
18

77

82

76.8

77.8

75.6

.483

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Losing to the Reds on Sunday ensures the Pirates will enjoy their billionth consecutive losing season. OK, not billionth, and not enjoy either.
19

75

84

73.3

73.6

72.9

.463

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The third through sixth spots of the Padres lineup featured Chase Headley, Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, and Mark Kotsay. OK, kids, sing along with me: one of these things is not like the others, one of these things doesn’t belong!
20

73

86

73.1

76.5

78.9

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If a Mets season fails in Queens and nothing of note happens will anyone remember it?
21

73

86

74.3

72.9

75.1

.464

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Smoak is hitting .333/.413/.606 over the last month. He's doing it to preemptively show Seattle what they'll be missing when he gets DFA'd or to force them into bringing him back whereupon he'll hit .111/.111/.112.
22

71

88

72.3

66.9

66.7

.435

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Luke Hochevar's fifth inning: double, double, single, strikeout, double, walk, ground-out, walk, hit-by-pitch, single. He was relieved by Everett Teaford, professional band-aid ripper: walk, grand slam, who cares.
23

70

89

72.3

68.3

70.3

.442

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Nothing says "Playoffs!" more than Blue Jays' pitching, as long as you're in the opposite dugout.
24

69

90

74.4

76.7

77.3

.468

.488

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Having successfully been swept by Baltimore, the Red Sox could head to New York and beat the Yankees for the ultimate punk-your-rival moment. Except for two things: 1) They’re not any good (Mauro Gomez is hitting clean-up), and 2) they’re terrible.
25

67

92

66.8

69.4

70.7

.431

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Heath Bell pitched the 9th inning and since the Marlins were down by three at the time it was an un-save situation. At least Ozzie is letting him have those.
26

67

92

63.5

68.7

69.1

.422

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a battle between the Indians and their 10-run inning I’d rather be the inning. Sure, it’s gone, but at least it doesn’t have to go back to being the Indians.
27

66

93

66.7

69.1

69.0

.426

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ten singles, two walks, one run. Twins baseball: forget the fever, it'll give you the night sweats.
28

62

97

66.9

63.6

62.9

.402

.383

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Should the Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki? Sure! Who likes winning anyway?
29

60

99

64.3

61.2

61.6

.389

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When running down the hitter and pitcher WARP leaderboards, the first Cub pitcher appears at no. 27. The first Cub hitter appears at no. 50.
30

53

106

56.6

57.1

57.2

.352

.334

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are only 33 games behind the Reds. Man, it's so easy to look back at 34 of those games and think what if...?