Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for October 1



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 28 Hit List for October 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

No team's playoff odds are between 5 percent and 95 percent. We're almost there, folks.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

96

63

94.2

95.0

93.6

.596

.576

99.1%

0.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals rotation is going through a bit of a bad stretch. If only they had a fireballing young ace to step in and settle things down. Well, as my dad used to say, if 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts, oh what a party we'd have!
2

92

67

91.4

92.2

92.9

.579

.599

62.7%

37.3%

100.0%

0.7%

0.7%

Derek Lowe has almost doubled his strikeout rate and cut his ERA by two runs since coming to New York. You’d almost think that if the Yankees traded for Ichiro he’d put up an .800+ OPS! Ha ha! No, that’d just be silly.
3

93

66

87.4

85.6

84.2

.551

.531

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Not only does Buster Posey lead the National League in bVORP with 67.4 but, through painstaking research, I can report to you that he can dance Gangnam Style. There is no reason to look any further.
4

96

63

88.9

86.7

84.0

.559

.539

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Reds are 10 games up on St. Louis. They don't have to win anymore. But they do. Someone stop them!
5

93

66

90.7

95.2

94.3

.587

.606

86.9%

13.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

In a doubleheader, Rangers starting pitching gave up 21 hits in 13 1/3 innings to Anaheim. Imagine if that mattered!
6

92

67

80.7

78.2

79.5

.519

.539

37.3%

62.7%

100.0%

5.0%

8.0%

That the Orioles are tied for first place is as believable as Jesus coming down from Heaven, tapping me on the shoulder and saying, "I am not the messiah, but He is," and then pointing to the Papa John's pizza guy.
7

93

66

90.8

90.0

89.9

.572

.552

0.9%

99.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sunday was one of our last chances to play Extrapolating Movie Reviews From Chipper Jones’ Batting Line. Two walks and a single, so clearly he thought Trouble With The Curve was sentimental crap (though Amy Adams was delightful).
8

86

73

85.3

88.3

87.7

.546

.566

99.0%

0.0%

99.0%

9.7%

67.8%

Detroit's magic number to clinch the AL Central is down to one, proving that everyone who looked at the Tigers defense and thought, "That'll never work!" was only mostly right.
9

91

68

89.4

85.0

86.4

.553

.573

13.1%

85.4%

98.5%

2.9%

17.5%

Yoenis Cespedes hit home run no. 23 proving once again that making a video of yourself rolling a massive truck tire end over end and then roasting a pig is a legitimate form of offseason training.
10

86

73

91.7

92.1

89.1

.564

.545

0.0%

95.0%

95.0%

4.0%

10.7%

The Cardinals are two runs behind Milwaukee for the National League lead. I mention this on the off chance that the fine people of St. Louis need an excuse for a parade.
11

84

75

83.7

82.1

82.4

.522

.502

0.0%

5.0%

5.0%

-3.9%

-0.5%

The Dodgers have to make up two games on the Cardinals with three games to go. Could happen, but would be much easier with Jose Bautista. Call Anthopoulos and have Bautista sent over.
12

83

76

85.1

82.2

81.2

.521

.541

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

-9.7%

-67.9%

Adam Dunn: four plate appearances, three strikeouts. SNIFF, I'm going to miss him when this season ends...
13

88

71

92.7

93.5

94.9

.580

.600

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

-3.5%

-7.6%

David Price won his 20th game ensuring a wave of bad puns about the price being right. Which, incidentally, it is.
14

88

71

87.9

90.3

92.1

.563

.583

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-5.1%

-18.7%

The Angels: Crushingly disappointing flop, and just four games worse than the league's best record.
15

67

92

66.8

69.4

70.7

.431

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Heath Bell pitched the 9th inning and since the Marlins were down by three at the time it was an un-save situation. At least Ozzie is letting him have those.
16

70

89

72.3

68.3

70.3

.442

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Nothing says "Playoffs!" more than Blue Jays' pitching, as long as you're in the opposite dugout.
17

80

79

84.5

84.5

83.4

.522

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.9%

It's time for Silver Lining Theater! When thinking about a team led in WARP by Aaron Hill, you might think of a team that has lost 250 games in a season. But the Diamondbacks have lost far fewer than that!
18

69

90

74.4

76.7

77.3

.468

.488

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Having successfully been swept by Baltimore, the Red Sox could head to New York and beat the Yankees for the ultimate punk-your-rival moment. Except for two things: 1) They’re not any good (Mauro Gomez is hitting clean-up), and 2) they’re terrible.
19

60

99

64.3

61.2

61.6

.389

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When running down the hitter and pitcher WARP leaderboards, the first Cub pitcher appears at no. 27. The first Cub hitter appears at no. 50.
20

67

92

63.5

68.7

69.1

.422

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a battle between the Indians and their 10-run inning I’d rather be the inning. Sure, it’s gone, but at least it doesn’t have to go back to being the Indians.
21

73

86

74.3

72.9

75.1

.464

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Smoak is hitting .333/.413/.606 over the last month. He's doing it to preemptively show Seattle what they'll be missing when he gets DFA'd or to force them into bringing him back whereupon he'll hit .111/.111/.112.
22

75

84

73.3

73.6

72.9

.463

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The third through sixth spots of the Padres lineup featured Chase Headley, Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, and Mark Kotsay. OK, kids, sing along with me: one of these things is not like the others, one of these things doesn’t belong!
23

77

82

76.8

77.8

75.6

.483

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Losing to the Reds on Sunday ensures the Pirates will enjoy their billionth consecutive losing season. OK, not billionth, and not enjoy either.
24

80

79

80.4

82.4

82.0

.511

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Maybe someday someone will do a study on whether or not it's a good idea to give a relief pitcher $13 million a season. I look forward to reading that!
25

62

97

66.9

63.6

62.9

.402

.383

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Should the Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki? Sure! Who likes winning anyway?
26

73

86

73.1

76.5

78.9

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If a Mets season fails in Queens and nothing of note happens will anyone remember it?
27

53

106

56.6

57.1

57.2

.352

.334

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are only 33 games behind the Reds. Man, it's so easy to look back at 34 of those games and think what if...?
28

66

93

66.7

69.1

69.0

.426

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ten singles, two walks, one run. Twins baseball: forget the fever, it'll give you the night sweats.
29

71

88

72.3

66.9

66.7

.435

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Luke Hochevar's fifth inning: double, double, single, strikeout, double, walk, ground-out, walk, hit-by-pitch, single. He was relieved by Everett Teaford, professional band-aid ripper: walk, grand slam, who cares.
30

81

78

83.7

84.1

81.3

.519

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-9.3%

The Brewers lost 7-0 to Houston. I'd make a joke but that would just be piling on.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
BartPachino

I love BP but as an Os fan, how is it the Birds are still (STILL!!!!!!) number 11 on this list?

Behind Detroit and Chicago?

Tampa #2?

C'mon!!!!!

Oct 01, 2012 08:56 AM
up_image

-1

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

The Hit List is ordered by the Adjusted Hit List Factor, not subjective judgement, so there's no "come on" about it. I don't pick the order of the teams, the math does. If you're curious, you can read a snipet on AHLF by hovering your cursor over the "AHLF" up top. There's also a link to an article by Jay Jaffe for more depth.

Thanks for reading and commenting, Bart!

Oct 01, 2012 09:17 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
ChicagoOriole

Jay Jaffe's article indicates uncertainty about the justifiability of AHLF. If that is going to be your basis for ordering (that is, including a league adjustment, which looks to be 0.020 this year!) I think I'd like to see a stronger justification for that.

Not that that would work in the Orioles' favor! The Orioles would drop to 0.519 instead of 0.539. Yikes!

Oct 01, 2012 09:58 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
andykaylor

In other words, either the Orioles have "beaten the odds" or their 2012 season has revealed some minor flaw in the Pythagenpat metric.

Someone asked recently how big the sample size has to be for the Pythagenpat to be accurate (given that rosters and roles change through the season and that the team on the field now is not the team that was on the field in June). In September the Orioles have a +50 run differential and are actually tracking pretty well to their Pythagenpat for the month. Of course, I realize that statistics is about things smoothing out over larger samples, and every other month the O's were well over their predicted performance.

Statistical oddities aside, I think it's time people notice that the Orioles just aren't that bad.

Oct 01, 2012 11:02 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
TGisriel

But there is subjective judgment galore in you numerous comments that belittle the Orioles.

Oct 01, 2012 12:58 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

Of course! Less than subjective judgment, there is my judgement. And less than judgement there are things that are interesting and/or funny (at least that's the goal).

I don't think I belittle the Orioles any more than any other team. However, their success this season has surprised everyone who isn't an Orioles partisan, and, if I might be so bold, probably many of those too. So fairly or not, I'm sure the JPC (jokes per comment) for the Orioles over the course of the season is as high as any other team. I hope you haven't taken offense. I haven't intended any, for sure.

Oct 01, 2012 13:43 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
lmarighi

If you prefer ranking by actual wins (a stat in which the Orioles have done quite well this year), might I suggest looking at the "standings" section of your local paper or favorite sports site, instead of looking at the BP Daily Hit List.

Oct 01, 2012 14:02 PM
up_image

+4

down_image
 
BartPachino

They certainly have surprised me, but as an Os fan for 47 years, the last 14 pretty crappy, this has been one of the great years ever.

Guessing the #2 Rays no hit the Birds tonight

Oct 01, 2012 16:43 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Nathan

The Astros are 43 games behind the Reds.

Oct 02, 2012 04:32 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.
<< Previous Article
What You Need to Know:... (10/01)
<< Previous Column
The Prospectus Hit Lis... (09/28)
Next Column >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (10/02)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Collateral Damage Dail... (10/01)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 25
Fantasy Article They Hold No Quarter: Outfielders
The BP Wayback Machine: The Many Moments of ...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Small Moves That Might Ma...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 18, 2014
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Big Situation James
Painting the Black: The Plightin' Showalters

MORE FROM OCTOBER 1, 2012 09:10 AM
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Uplifting, Inspirational...
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: When Do Players Stop Devel...
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The 2012 Fantasy Fa...
The Week in Quotes: September 24-30
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Monday, October 1
What You Need to Know: Monday, October 1
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Relievers Review

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2012-10-04 - The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, October 4
2012-10-03 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, October ...
2012-10-02 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, October 2
2012-10-01 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, October 1
2012-09-28 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 2...
2012-09-27 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, September...
2012-09-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2012-10-04 - The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, October 4
2012-10-03 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, October ...
2012-10-02 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, October 2
2012-10-01 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, October 1
2012-09-28 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 2...
2012-09-27 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, September...
2012-09-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
More...