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Prospectus Hit List for September 27



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 26 Hit List for September 28
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Angels (18.3 percent playoff odds) and Dodgers (3.4 percent) are still hanging in it.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

71

84

71.4

75.3

77.5

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jason Bay's .525 OPS is lower than five of his previous slugging percentages. Guessing that 2014 option isn't going to vest.
2

65

91

65.4

67.7

67.6

.426

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Can something be both untrue and true simultaneously? How about this: over the last decade the Twins are 4-7,481 against the Yankees.
3

78

77

78.2

80.2

80.0

.510

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.4%

It's shocking that a team ostensibly in the playoff hunt would allow Kyle Kendrick to come within the baselines of a pitchers mound.
4

66

89

65.9

68.3

69.5

.435

.416

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Has Ozzie Guillen's first season with the Marlins been a success? To vote no, click here. To vote yes, throw yourself in front of a truck.
5

70

85

71.9

67.0

67.0

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals are in third place in the AL Central. They haven't finished that high in the division since 2003 and haven't bested third place since 1995.
6

51

105

54.6

54.8

55.0

.345

.327

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I haven't heard anything about him but Astros interim manager Tony DeFrancesco is doing a fantastic job. The simple fact that there have been no reports of fighting, car theft, and cannibalism in the Astros clubhouse is pretty impressive.
7

76

79

75.1

75.8

73.4

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.5%

The Pirates: Come for the ballpark, stay for the view, leave because why not?
8

61

94

66.4

63.0

62.5

.408

.389

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Drew Ponerantz pitched really well and the Rockies won. This is what happens when I run out of ideas.
9

65

91

60.5

65.3

66.0

.412

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When the Indians scored six or more runs for him, Ubaldo Jimenez's ERA was 9.18. Pitching to the score! Hall of Fame!
10

74

81

71.7

71.9

71.1

.466

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Padres add to their offense this offseason it could be well above average on the road. At home, of course, it'll stil be swallowed up like a Cool Ranch Dorito by my cat.
11

59

96

63.1

59.8

60.2

.390

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The 2012 Cubs: who needs all that scoring when you're just going to lose anyway?
12

72

83

73.1

71.4

73.4

.468

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This is your daily reminder: Dustin Ackley is in the clean-up spot. That's Dustin ".229/.297/.336" Ackely.
13

69

87

74.1

76.5

77.0

.475

.495

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With the season winding down and presumably Bobby Valentine's employment with it, a beat writer noticed a pile of two-by-fours in Valentine's office and a book, Barricading for Dummies. This won't end well.
14

68

87

70.6

66.4

68.2

.441

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After giving up 12 runs to the Orioles, the Blue Jays need to spend the offseason looking for pitching. I suggest starting with where you last had it and don't forget to look behind the couch. You're always leaving things there.
15

78

77

82.3

82.2

81.4

.522

.502

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

-1.7%

Arizona used eight pitchers to lose 6-2, last night. One wonders how many it would take to eat dinner.
16

80

75

79.3

78.1

78.8

.510

.490

0.0%

3.4%

3.4%

2.6%

-5.8%

In four out of six months Adrian Gonzalez has slugged under .500, and in three of those months the figure was below .430. This is the guy the Dodgers were willing to take on a quarter of a billion dollars to acquire.
17

80

75

82.2

83.0

80.4

.525

.505

0.0%

4.4%

4.4%

3.0%

-2.5%

If the Brewers make the postseason (they're 3 1/2 games out with seven to go) they'll spawn a whole new fad. Still, I'm guessing dumping your best starter midseason and then making the playoffs isn't likely to catch on.
18

85

70

89.7

90.0

91.4

.574

.594

0.0%

9.9%

9.9%

-2.6%

5.3%

The good news: the Rays have won seven in a row and are only three out of the Wild Card. The bad news: there are only seven games left and none of them are against the Red Sox.
19

86

69

86.2

88.1

89.8

.565

.584

0.7%

17.6%

18.3%

-6.4%

-5.0%

Torii Hunter tied the game in the sevenh and won it in the 11th. That he didn't leave early to get an ice cream or anything is a credit to his character.
20

82

73

84.1

81.6

80.3

.529

.549

27.7%

0.0%

27.7%

-21.6%

-44.6%

The White Sox pinch-ran for Adam Dunn! What? Do they think he can't strikeout from first base? Oh he can!
21

83

72

83.0

86.0

85.7

.545

.564

72.3%

0.0%

72.3%

21.5%

37.7%

It was a game the TIgers couldn't not win and fortunately for them, their good friends from Kansas City were there to help them.
22

89

67

77.9

75.3

76.8

.511

.531

12.3%

71.2%

83.5%

4.5%

-3.3%

The Orioles hit seven homers last night against Toronto, meaning that as of now they are officially out of homers for next season.
23

88

67

86.4

82.3

83.7

.549

.569

12.4%

76.5%

88.8%

4.5%

8.4%

Yoenis Cespedes has only four triples on the season (including one yesterday). Doesn't he know home runs kill rallies?
24

84

72

88.8

89.8

86.5

.559

.540

0.0%

92.1%

92.1%

-5.2%

10.9%

Losing to the Astros in the middle of a pennant race is llike losing tic-tac-toe to a 4-year-old right before a meeting with your boss. It probably doesn't matter but it can't help.
25

90

65

89.1

90.1

91.0

.581

.600

87.7%

11.8%

99.6%

0.2%

1.6%

The Yankees are unhappy with Brett Gardner in his role as pinch-runner and are reportedly considering signing a cheetah from the Bronx Zoo. "Same skill set," said a Yankees spokesman, "Cheetah's probably a bit faster though."
26

91

64

88.9

93.7

92.5

.590

.610

86.9%

12.9%

99.8%

-0.1%

-0.1%

The Rangers got shelled and Roy Oswalt pitched in the game, but here's the shocker: it wasn't his fault!
27

90

65

87.9

87.0

87.2

.568

.548

3.6%

96.4%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

MLB.com does not list Braves lead-off hitter and center fielder Jose Costanza's middle name. But it does give his middle initial: G.
28

90

65

85.0

83.0

81.6

.548

.528

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Cain is apparently the rare bird who pitches to the number on his contract
29

93

62

86.6

84.2

81.4

.557

.537

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joey Votto: two hits, two walks. Joey Votto.
30

94

61

93.4

93.5

92.0

.601

.582

96.4%

3.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Most teenage players get weak by the end of the season. Bryce Harper is somehow getting stronger.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
liltroy17

the cubs are like the double deuce "its gonna get worse before it gets better" except swazey is dead and the cubs are more like the car dealership that the monster truck destroyed

Sep 27, 2012 08:16 AM
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rexcoot

the Angels and Torii won it in the bottom of the 9th, not the 11th.

Sep 27, 2012 09:09 AM
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