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Prospectus Hit List for September 26



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 25 Hit List for September 27
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

With hot and unexpected offseason rumors about the Astros.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

85

69

85.6

87.4

89.1

.563

.583

0.1%

25.6%

25.8%

2.5%

-8.8%

Zack Greinke and four relievers combined to tie a record by striking out 20 Mariners. It would have been 27 strikeouts but Greinke can't handle the spotlight.
2

78

76

82.4

82.2

81.5

.526

.506

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

-1.8%

Paul Goldschmidt has now hit five homers off Tim Lincecum. That's five more than Lincecum will ever hit off Goldschmidt.
3

89

65

87.0

86.2

86.4

.566

.546

5.9%

94.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals' lead in the National League East is down to four games. Time to celebrate.
4

88

67

76.3

73.7

75.4

.506

.526

12.3%

66.6%

78.9%

-12.8%

1.6%

Nobody ever told the Orioles to use their black magic to win games decided by four runs, too! A little notice next time, people!
5

69

86

73.8

76.4

76.7

.477

.497

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox held a ceremony celebrating the 2004 World Series champs before the actual Red Sox lost to David Price. Price struck out 13, dominating a lineup that wouldn't have lost potency had Boston decided, for old time's sake, to play the '04 celebrants in their place.
6

82

72

83.8

81.4

80.1

.531

.551

49.2%

0.0%

49.2%

-18.4%

-33.6%

The White Sox homered three times, a number which also served to note their score. See? Proof that home runs kill offense.
7

59

95

63.3

59.7

60.2

.393

.374

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs need a mascot. Wht's Joe Piscopo doing these days?
8

93

61

86.9

84.7

81.8

.562

.543

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Aroldis Chapman pitched his second consecutive inning without striking anyone out. He previously had four strikeoutless innings all year.
9

64

91

59.8

64.5

65.3

.409

.429

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Indians capitalized on Gordon Beckham's error to score four runs and beat Chicago. Capitalizing on others' mistakes has become a hallmark of the Indians organization. For instance there was that time when... no... Oh! No... how about the... no. OK, there's a first time for everything.
10

60

94

65.3

62.1

61.8

.405

.386

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It rained all throughout the Rockies' matchup with the Cubs, giving credence to the idea that it wasn't rain so much as tears from the baseball gods at the teams' respective records.
11

82

72

82.4

85.4

85.2

.544

.564

50.8%

0.1%

50.9%

18.3%

27.2%

Anibal Sanchez bobblehead night turned out well. By the way, that bobblehead of Sanchez on your desk? That's not a bobblehead. That's actually Sanchez. He's very quiet.
12

50

105

54.0

54.1

54.4

.343

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rumor has it this offseason the Astros aren't looking to acquire a giant baseball eating dinosaur/robot to snap up homers and line drives off opposing bats. They aren't looking for that. So you know.
13

70

84

71.5

66.6

66.6

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Was Anibal Sanchez that good or were the Royals tired from another all-night Designing Women marathon? Your stats can't account for Dixie Carter!
14

79

75

78.1

77.0

77.6

.506

.486

0.0%

0.9%

0.9%

-3.4%

-10.2%

It wasn't enough, but two singles from Adrian Gonzalez, and 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball by Josh Beckett, mean the Red Sox did their part.
15

66

88

65.8

68.1

69.2

.437

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After losing "The Franchise", the Marlins should get in touch with MTV about a Jersey Shore-type show. Because the only way to cure this franchise is for Ozzie Guillen and Heath Bell to talk it out in a hot tub.
16

79

75

81.0

81.6

79.2

.521

.501

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

-3.1%

-3.3%

MIke Fiers' ERA by month: 1.29, 2.51, 1.01, 4.89, 6.97
17

65

90

65.5

67.8

67.7

.429

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After the Twins beat the Yankees they ran around the field hitting each other with shaving cream pies and spraying champagne. OK, no, but they should have.
18

89

65

88.0

88.9

89.8

.578

.597

87.6%

11.6%

99.3%

-0.6%

4.1%

After Boone Logan's relief appearance last night, he's going to have to go back to skin'n bears (pronounced "bars") and drink'n whiskey waiting for the wagon train to role in.
19

70

84

70.3

74.0

76.2

.471

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Per MLB.com, David Wright tied Ed Kranepool for the most hits in Mets history, which is both impressive and raises the question: How can a team exist for 50 years and not produce a better hitter than Ed Kranepool?
20

87

67

85.2

81.1

82.6

.545

.565

6.0%

77.3%

83.4%

9.2%

0.7%

Of the A's last five games, three have gone into extra innings, and the other two have been decided by one run.
21

78

76

78.1

80.0

79.6

.512

.492

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.5%

The Philles' playoff hopes are like Ted Williams' frozen head. It could come alive at some point in the future, sure, but no actually, it couldn't.
22

76

78

75.2

76.1

73.8

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.6%

Not only is Andrew McCutchen hitting .336/.408/.566 with 30 homers, but he doesn't spell his name with a 'u' thereby endearing himself to writers everywhere. M-V-P!
23

74

80

71.8

72.0

71.2

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Huston Street is back to save the season! Which, unless he's learned to hit homers, he can not do!
24

72

82

72.7

71.1

73.1

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

As a reliever, Charlie Furbush has pitched eight fewer innings for Seattle than he did as a starter last year. And allowed 29 fewer runs.
25

89

65

83.8

81.9

80.5

.544

.524

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

To change his luck, Tim Lincecum should try cutting off his hair, taping it to a goat, telling the goat what he needs from the grocery store, giving him a credit card, and never seeing him again. How am I not a major-league pitching coach?
26

84

71

88.5

89.5

86.3

.562

.542

0.0%

97.0%

97.0%

6.4%

17.5%

True fact: the last time Jaime Garcia walked someone was... well, last game, but still. The dude doesn't walk many guys.
27

84

70

88.9

89.1

90.6

.572

.592

0.0%

12.6%

12.6%

1.8%

8.8%

David Price looked amazing. But then again, shouldn't he have dominated a lineup that was Dustin Pedroia, Cody Ross, and the Portland Sea Dogs?
28

91

63

89.0

93.9

92.6

.595

.614

93.8%

6.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

Giving up a bomb to George Kottaras isn't going to help Mark Lowe's standing with the Rangers let alone in the International Brotherhood of Lowes. (Derek is going to be mad.)
29

68

86

71.1

66.9

68.7

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At some point someone is going to make another pun on his name and Aaron Laffey will snap and never laugh again.
30

93

61

92.5

92.8

91.2

.600

.580

94.1%

5.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals' lead in the National League East is down to four games. Time to panic.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
FlemSnopes

Kranepool. Ed Kranepool.

Sep 26, 2012 08:13 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Fixed. Apologies to Mr. Kranepool and his family.

Sep 26, 2012 08:52 AM
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DetroitDale

I'm actually surprised to see the Tigers with a higher playoff percentage than the White Sox (granted it's a fraction of a percent). Every time the Tigers pull into a tie the wheels fall off. Much has been made of the easy schedule but the Tiger's record again Central teams other than the White Sox is vastly inferior to the White Sox's record againt Central teams other than Detroit. I guess people are banking on the better pitching but Sherzer's hurt and you never know which Rick Porcello or Sanchez is gonna show up.

Sep 26, 2012 08:48 AM
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Brock Dahlke

I think people are banking on the Twins being awful and helping the Tigers out, hard to argue.

Sep 26, 2012 10:18 AM
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