Prospectus Hit List for September 25
Hit List for September 24
Hit List for September 26
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.
| Rk | Tm |  W | L | W1 | W2 | W3 | HLF | AHLF | Win Div% | Win WC% | Playoff% | 1-Day | 7-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 50 | 104 | 54.0 | 54.1 | 54.3 | .345 | .327 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| The Astros have eight more games in the National League. Enjoy watching the baseball cul-de-sac that is pitchers hitting while you can, guys. | |||||||||||||
| 2 |  | 59 | 94 | 64.3 | 61.2 | 61.1 | .401 | .382 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood has a home ERA 1.13 lower than his road ERA. He'd be the ideal Colorado pitcher if his home ERA weren't 4.94. | |||||||||||||
| 3 |  | 59 | 94 | 63.3 | 59.6 | 60.1 | .395 | .376 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| After months and months of trying, analysts in the Cubs front office have finally deciphered the holy grail of baseball analysis: the text of the betting book that Doctor Emmett Brown took back from the future in Back to the Future III. Your move, universe. | |||||||||||||
| 4 |  | 63 | 91 | 59.2 | 64.2 | 64.9 | .408 | .427 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| No, no, don't worry about it. Vinnie Pestano's got the blown save and the loss. No. No! He’s got it. Don't worry nothing about it, ya hear? You can get the loss next time. | |||||||||||||
| 5 |  | 64 | 90 | 64.9 | 67.5 | 67.4 | .428 | .448 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Know who is third in baseball in RBIs? Josh Willingham! M-V-P! M-V-P! | |||||||||||||
| 6 |  | 66 | 87 | 65.4 | 67.9 | 69.0 | .438 | .419 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Future ex-Marlin Heath Bell called future ex-manager Ozzie Guillen a liar. That, and 66-87. Is it too late to pull the funding on that new ballpark? | |||||||||||||
| 7 |  | 67 | 86 | 70.2 | 66.0 | 67.8 | .443 | .463 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Get your tickets to see Ricky Romero in the Bad-But-At-Least-Not-Outright-Embarrassing tour! (Extremely limited engagement) | |||||||||||||
| 8 |  | 69 | 85 | 73.6 | 76.2 | 76.5 | .479 | .499 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Loney has hit .247/.281/.306 for the Red Sox. NFL replacement refs say: MVP! | |||||||||||||
| 9 |  | 70 | 83 | 71.2 | 66.8 | 66.7 | .449 | .469 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Francoeur: .238/.292/.370 in 566 plate appearances, 25 non-intentional walks to 109 strikeouts, and four stolen bases. He's been caught seven times. The moral: Sometimes you don’t need a punch line. | |||||||||||||
| 10 |  | 70 | 83 | 70.2 | 73.9 | 76.0 | .474 | .454 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Looking over their stats, this thought struck me: if the Mets had some good pitching and some good hitting, they'd probably be a decent team. Then I thought, nah, they'd still be the Mets. | |||||||||||||
| 11 |  | 72 | 81 | 72.3 | 70.4 | 72.3 | .469 | .489 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| I took the kids out to the farmer's market to buy berries, but apparently berry season is over so they didn't have anything. (I figured anything is better than talking about the Mariners offense.) | |||||||||||||
| 12 |  | 73 | 80 | 71.2 | 71.8 | 70.9 | .469 | .449 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Kotsay's away split isn't as bad as I thought it would be. I mean, it's not good (.283/.338/.383) but it's not the instant baseball death I was expecting. | |||||||||||||
| 13 |  | 75 | 78 | 74.3 | 75.3 | 72.9 | .486 | .466 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -3.6% |
| At this point the Pirates' best chance to end the season with a better-than-.500 record is to fake being sick and then claim they would've done it if they weren't sick. | |||||||||||||
| 14 |  | 77 | 76 | 81.4 | 81.3 | 80.5 | .523 | .503 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.8% | -1.4% |
| Jason Kubel hit his 30th homer of the season last night. Just think where the Diamondbacks would be if they hadn't signed him! Also out of the playoffs? Well, yeah. | |||||||||||||
| 15 |  | 77 | 76 | 77.3 | 79.0 | 78.5 | .509 | .489 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% |
| That number right up above, the one that shows the Phillies' playoff chances, is now zero. | |||||||||||||
| 16 |  | 79 | 74 | 77.7 | 76.1 | 76.8 | .506 | .486 | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | -1.8% | -10.4% |
| The Dodgers are down to a 4 percent shot at making the playoffs this season. But hey, they have Carl Crawford next season so no worries. | |||||||||||||
| 17 |  | 79 | 74 | 80.7 | 81.5 | 79.0 | .523 | .503 | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | -4.3% | 0.4% |
| The Brewers' 5 percent chance to catch the Cardinals is the same percentage as the energy that is transferred down the food chain from prey to predator. I thought you’d want to know that, Brewers fans. | |||||||||||||
| 18 |  | 81 | 72 | 81.7 | 84.2 | 84.2 | .541 | .561 | 32.4% | 0.2% | 32.6% | 1.5% | 11.3% |
| Detroit’s thousand-run offense on pace to score 736 runs. | |||||||||||||
| 19 |  | 82 | 71 | 83.4 | 80.7 | 79.6 | .532 | .552 | 67.6% | 0.0% | 67.6% | -1.3% | -14.7% |
| Adam Dunn leads baseball in strikeouts, walks and homers. Triple Crown! | |||||||||||||
| 20 |  | 83 | 71 | 87.5 | 88.5 | 85.5 | .559 | .540 | 0.0% | 91.1% | 91.1% | 6.8% | 15.4% |
| Yadier Molina is so good at pitch framing that he can de-frame his opponents' pitches by subtly bumping the opposing catcher with a pool cue. You've never seen him up there with a pool cue before, right? That's how good he is! | |||||||||||||
| 21 |  | 83 | 70 | 88.1 | 88.1 | 89.7 | .570 | .590 | 0.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| The Rays have been mentioned as a possible destination next season for James Loney. Apparently wining with Carlos Pena's .199/.334/.356 doesn't present enough of a challenge. | |||||||||||||
| 22 |  | 84 | 69 | 85.0 | 87.1 | 88.8 | .563 | .583 | 0.2% | 22.8% | 23.0% | 3.6% | -6.2% |
| How good is Mike Trout? He was just named Associate of the Month at a consulting company he's never worked for in his life! | |||||||||||||
| 23 |  | 86 | 67 | 84.6 | 80.3 | 81.8 | .544 | .563 | 2.5% | 71.8% | 74.3% | -7.6% | -15.2% |
| Oakland's lead in the Wild Card over the Angels is down to two games. If only they'd listened to me and signed Albert Pujols and drafted Mike Trout they wouldn't be in this mess. | |||||||||||||
| 24 |  | 88 | 66 | 76.3 | 73.6 | 75.3 | .508 | .528 | 14.3% | 77.4% | 91.7% | 0.0% | 18.1% |
| The Orioles played a doubleheader, which they split, and in which they were outscored. Double duh. | |||||||||||||
| 25 |  | 88 | 65 | 86.4 | 85.5 | 85.7 | .565 | .545 | 2.4% | 97.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Can the Braves make up five games on the Nationals with only nine games to go in the schedule? The hopes and dreams of many a Strasburg-Shutdown hater rest on this possibility. | |||||||||||||
| 26 |  | 89 | 64 | 87.6 | 88.2 | 89.2 | .578 | .598 | 85.7% | 14.1% | 99.8% | 0.5% | 3.7% |
| 40-year-old Andy Pettitte walks off the DL after almost three months and throws 11 innings of shutout ball. This is exhibit 421 why people hate the Yankees, and love Andy Pettitte. | |||||||||||||
| 27 |  | 89 | 64 | 83.9 | 81.8 | 80.3 | .547 | .528 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Giants hat: purchased. Bandwagon seat: acquired. So, who's this guy with the long hair? Is that the Panda? | |||||||||||||
| 28 |  | 91 | 62 | 88.6 | 93.6 | 92.2 | .597 | .616 | 97.3% | 2.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Every time Adrian Beltre does something good, his teammates rub his head, which makes him flip out. You'd think he'd get the message and start striking out more in crucial situations. | |||||||||||||
| 29 |  | 92 | 61 | 86.2 | 83.8 | 80.9 | .560 | .540 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Votto's weird slash line since returning from injury is still going strong: .314/.493/.392. | |||||||||||||
| 30 |  | 93 | 60 | 92.3 | 92.8 | 91.2 | .603 | .584 | 97.6% | 2.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| The Nats’ fourth inning looked like this: double, single, kick in the shins, single, punch in the neck, double, urinating on the team flag, walk, homer. | |||||||||||||
Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @mattymatty2000
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4 comments have been left for this article.
NYYanks826
Gotta correct you in that Cubs comment....
Marty McFly took the sports almanac back from the future with him in the SECOND movie. The third one took place in the old west.
Fantastic job as usual, otherwise!
Matt KoryAre you sure? I thought I remembered him waiving the thing around in a cowboy hat. Huh. Well, if there's one thing I've learned from doing this job for almost a full season, it's that the commenters know a heck of a lot more than I do. So I'm sure you're right. My memory is a warped version of reality probably brought on by sheer anger over how badly both those sequels sucked.
And thanks.
TimLandry
Never worry about "memory". I once forgot my own name - and another time I was counting pages in a fax - in French (but I have been counting in French for a good 60 years) and I TOTALLY forgot the number "7"
stevebro
Love the Rays comment. I find myself wondering how long Loney can hold on in the major leagues. But you are right--
he's viewed as a desirable commodity in many quaters.
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Free Agent Watch: Week 12
The Phillies are the 14th team to reach 0 percent playoff odds; the Rangers are the fifth to reach 100 percent (again).