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Prospectus Hit List for September 25



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 24 Hit List for September 26
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Phillies are the 14th team to reach 0 percent playoff odds; the Rangers are the fifth to reach 100 percent (again).

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

83

71

87.5

88.5

85.5

.559

.540

0.0%

91.1%

91.1%

6.8%

15.4%

Yadier Molina is so good at pitch framing that he can de-frame his opponents' pitches by subtly bumping the opposing catcher with a pool cue. You've never seen him up there with a pool cue before, right? That's how good he is!
2

84

69

85.0

87.1

88.8

.563

.583

0.2%

22.8%

23.0%

3.6%

-6.2%

How good is Mike Trout? He was just named Associate of the Month at a consulting company he's never worked for in his life!
3

83

70

88.1

88.1

89.7

.570

.590

0.0%

11.0%

11.0%

3.1%

2.9%

The Rays have been mentioned as a possible destination next season for James Loney. Apparently wining with Carlos Pena's .199/.334/.356 doesn't present enough of a challenge.
4

81

72

81.7

84.2

84.2

.541

.561

32.4%

0.2%

32.6%

1.5%

11.3%

Detroit’s thousand-run offense on pace to score 736 runs.
5

89

64

87.6

88.2

89.2

.578

.598

85.7%

14.1%

99.8%

0.5%

3.7%

40-year-old Andy Pettitte walks off the DL after almost three months and throws 11 innings of shutout ball. This is exhibit 421 why people hate the Yankees, and love Andy Pettitte.
6

91

62

88.6

93.6

92.2

.597

.616

97.3%

2.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

Every time Adrian Beltre does something good, his teammates rub his head, which makes him flip out. You'd think he'd get the message and start striking out more in crucial situations.
7

64

90

64.9

67.5

67.4

.428

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Know who is third in baseball in RBIs? Josh Willingham! M-V-P! M-V-P!
8

70

83

70.2

73.9

76.0

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Looking over their stats, this thought struck me: if the Mets had some good pitching and some good hitting, they'd probably be a decent team. Then I thought, nah, they'd still be the Mets.
9

77

76

77.3

79.0

78.5

.509

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.6%

That number right up above, the one that shows the Phillies' playoff chances, is now zero.
10

75

78

74.3

75.3

72.9

.486

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.6%

At this point the Pirates' best chance to end the season with a better-than-.500 record is to fake being sick and then claim they would've done it if they weren't sick.
11

73

80

71.2

71.8

70.9

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mark Kotsay's away split isn't as bad as I thought it would be. I mean, it's not good (.283/.338/.383) but it's not the instant baseball death I was expecting.
12

72

81

72.3

70.4

72.3

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I took the kids out to the farmer's market to buy berries, but apparently berry season is over so they didn't have anything. (I figured anything is better than talking about the Mariners offense.)
13

89

64

83.9

81.8

80.3

.547

.528

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

Giants hat: purchased. Bandwagon seat: acquired. So, who's this guy with the long hair? Is that the Panda?
14

67

86

70.2

66.0

67.8

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Get your tickets to see Ricky Romero in the Bad-But-At-Least-Not-Outright-Embarrassing tour! (Extremely limited engagement)
15

93

60

92.3

92.8

91.2

.603

.584

97.6%

2.4%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nats’ fourth inning looked like this: double, single, kick in the shins, single, punch in the neck, double, urinating on the team flag, walk, homer.
16

66

87

65.4

67.9

69.0

.438

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Future ex-Marlin Heath Bell called future ex-manager Ozzie Guillen a liar. That, and 66-87. Is it too late to pull the funding on that new ballpark?
17

88

65

86.4

85.5

85.7

.565

.545

2.4%

97.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Can the Braves make up five games on the Nationals with only nine games to go in the schedule? The hopes and dreams of many a Strasburg-Shutdown hater rest on this possibility.
18

88

66

76.3

73.6

75.3

.508

.528

14.3%

77.4%

91.7%

0.0%

18.1%

The Orioles played a doubleheader, which they split, and in which they were outscored. Double duh.
19

69

85

73.6

76.2

76.5

.479

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

James Loney has hit .247/.281/.306 for the Red Sox. NFL replacement refs say: MVP!
20

59

94

63.3

59.6

60.1

.395

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After months and months of trying, analysts in the Cubs front office have finally deciphered the holy grail of baseball analysis: the text of the betting book that Doctor Emmett Brown took back from the future in Back to the Future III. Your move, universe.
21

92

61

86.2

83.8

80.9

.560

.540

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joey Votto's weird slash line since returning from injury is still going strong: .314/.493/.392.
22

63

91

59.2

64.2

64.9

.408

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No, no, don't worry about it. Vinnie Pestano's got the blown save and the loss. No. No! He’s got it. Don't worry nothing about it, ya hear? You can get the loss next time.
23

59

94

64.3

61.2

61.1

.401

.382

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tyler Chatwood has a home ERA 1.13 lower than his road ERA. He'd be the ideal Colorado pitcher if his home ERA weren't 4.94.
24

50

104

54.0

54.1

54.3

.345

.327

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have eight more games in the National League. Enjoy watching the baseball cul-de-sac that is pitchers hitting while you can, guys.
25

70

83

71.2

66.8

66.7

.449

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeff Francoeur: .238/.292/.370 in 566 plate appearances, 25 non-intentional walks to 109 strikeouts, and four stolen bases. He's been caught seven times. The moral: Sometimes you don’t need a punch line.
26

77

76

81.4

81.3

80.5

.523

.503

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.8%

-1.4%

Jason Kubel hit his 30th homer of the season last night. Just think where the Diamondbacks would be if they hadn't signed him! Also out of the playoffs? Well, yeah.
27

82

71

83.4

80.7

79.6

.532

.552

67.6%

0.0%

67.6%

-1.3%

-14.7%

Adam Dunn leads baseball in strikeouts, walks and homers. Triple Crown!
28

79

74

77.7

76.1

76.8

.506

.486

0.0%

3.8%

3.8%

-1.8%

-10.4%

The Dodgers are down to a 4 percent shot at making the playoffs this season. But hey, they have Carl Crawford next season so no worries.
29

79

74

80.7

81.5

79.0

.523

.503

0.0%

4.8%

4.8%

-4.3%

0.4%

The Brewers' 5 percent chance to catch the Cardinals is the same percentage as the energy that is transferred down the food chain from prey to predator. I thought you’d want to know that, Brewers fans.
30

86

67

84.6

80.3

81.8

.544

.563

2.5%

71.8%

74.3%

-7.6%

-15.2%

Oakland's lead in the Wild Card over the Angels is down to two games. If only they'd listened to me and signed Albert Pujols and drafted Mike Trout they wouldn't be in this mess.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
NYYanks826

Gotta correct you in that Cubs comment....

Marty McFly took the sports almanac back from the future with him in the SECOND movie. The third one took place in the old west.

Fantastic job as usual, otherwise!

Sep 25, 2012 09:29 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Are you sure? I thought I remembered him waiving the thing around in a cowboy hat. Huh. Well, if there's one thing I've learned from doing this job for almost a full season, it's that the commenters know a heck of a lot more than I do. So I'm sure you're right. My memory is a warped version of reality probably brought on by sheer anger over how badly both those sequels sucked.

And thanks.

Sep 25, 2012 09:57 AM
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TimLandry

Never worry about "memory". I once forgot my own name - and another time I was counting pages in a fax - in French (but I have been counting in French for a good 60 years) and I TOTALLY forgot the number "7"

Sep 25, 2012 10:12 AM
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stevebro

Love the Rays comment. I find myself wondering how long Loney can hold on in the major leagues. But you are right--
he's viewed as a desirable commodity in many quaters.

Sep 25, 2012 12:30 PM
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